KBWI / Sat Oct 17 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Baltimore, MDHigh ≤ 57°F

FINAL OUTCOMENOOct 17 · 06:58 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

<1%

<1%

Consensus

13%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

HRESYES 4.0¢Risks 1.01u

EPSNO 96.0¢Risks 23.99u

25 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

HRES +23.99u · EPS −23.99u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-17T06:58:42+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	EPS	WN2	HRES	ICON
2026-10-13T08:02:34+00:00	31.7%	5.4%	20.9%	18.9%	2.8%
2026-10-13T08:49:38+00:00	31.7%	5.4%	20.9%	18.9%	2.8%
2026-10-13T09:34:43+00:00	31.7%	5.4%	20.9%	18.9%	2.8%
2026-10-13T10:19:51+00:00	31.7%	5.4%	20.9%	18.9%	2.8%
2026-10-13T11:05:09+00:00	31.7%	4.8%	18.8%	18.9%	2.8%
2026-10-13T11:50:33+00:00	31.7%	4.8%	18.8%	18.9%	2.8%
2026-10-13T12:35:47+00:00	31.7%	4.8%	18.8%	18.9%	2.8%
2026-10-13T13:20:53+00:00	31.7%	4.8%	18.8%	18.9%	2.8%
2026-10-13T14:05:59+00:00	29.3%	4.8%	18.8%	18.9%	2.8%
2026-10-13T14:56:02+00:00	29.3%	4.5%	18.8%	18.9%	2.8%
2026-10-13T15:41:13+00:00	29.3%	4.5%	18.8%	18.9%	2.8%
2026-10-13T16:27:00+00:00	29.3%	4.5%	18.8%	18.9%	2.8%
2026-10-13T17:12:07+00:00	29.3%	4.5%	14.7%	18.9%	2.8%
2026-10-13T17:57:15+00:00	29.3%	4.5%	14.7%	18.9%	2.8%
2026-10-13T18:42:21+00:00	29.3%	4.5%	14.7%	18.9%	2.8%
2026-10-13T19:27:26+00:00	25.0%	4.5%	14.7%	18.9%	1.5%
2026-10-13T20:12:32+00:00	25.0%	4.5%	14.7%	18.9%	1.5%
2026-10-13T20:57:41+00:00	25.0%	4.5%	14.7%	18.9%	1.5%
2026-10-13T21:42:55+00:00	25.0%	4.5%	14.7%	18.9%	1.5%
2026-10-13T22:28:22+00:00	25.0%	4.5%	14.7%	26.1%	1.5%
2026-10-13T23:13:31+00:00	25.0%	4.5%	16.7%	26.1%	1.5%
2026-10-13T23:58:42+00:00	25.0%	4.5%	16.7%	26.1%	1.5%
2026-10-14T00:43:51+00:00	25.0%	4.5%	16.7%	26.1%	1.5%
2026-10-14T01:29:06+00:00	11.6%	4.5%	16.7%	26.1%	1.5%
2026-10-14T02:14:16+00:00	11.6%	4.5%	16.7%	26.1%	1.5%
2026-10-14T02:59:29+00:00	11.6%	4.5%	16.7%	26.1%	1.5%
2026-10-14T03:45:25+00:00	11.6%	4.5%	16.7%	26.1%	1.5%
2026-10-14T04:30:43+00:00	11.6%	4.5%	16.7%	26.1%	1.5%
2026-10-14T05:15:50+00:00	11.6%	4.5%	16.7%	26.1%	1.5%
2026-10-14T06:00:57+00:00	11.6%	4.5%	16.7%	26.1%	1.5%
2026-10-14T06:46:07+00:00	11.6%	4.5%	16.7%	26.1%	1.5%
2026-10-14T07:31:24+00:00	8.9%	4.5%	16.7%	26.1%	0.0%
2026-10-14T08:16:33+00:00	8.9%	4.5%	16.7%	26.1%	0.0%
2026-10-14T09:01:43+00:00	8.9%	4.5%	16.7%	26.1%	0.0%
2026-10-14T09:46:51+00:00	8.9%	4.5%	16.7%	26.1%	0.0%
2026-10-14T10:32:07+00:00	8.9%	4.5%	16.7%	12.7%	0.0%
2026-10-15T04:01:45+00:00	8.5%	0.0%	1.5%	7.0%	0.0%
2026-10-15T04:47:49+00:00	8.5%	0.0%	1.5%	7.0%	0.0%
2026-10-15T05:33:15+00:00	8.5%	0.0%	3.3%	7.0%	0.0%
2026-10-15T06:18:25+00:00	8.5%	0.0%	3.3%	7.0%	0.0%
2026-10-16T05:10:22+00:00	9.6%	0.0%	3.8%	11.6%	0.0%
2026-10-16T05:55:47+00:00	9.6%	0.0%	3.8%	11.6%	0.0%
2026-10-16T06:41:01+00:00	9.6%	0.0%	3.8%	11.6%	0.0%
2026-10-16T07:26:11+00:00	8.2%	0.0%	3.8%	11.6%	0.0%
2026-10-16T08:11:21+00:00	8.2%	0.0%	3.8%	11.6%	0.0%
2026-10-16T08:56:31+00:00	8.2%	0.0%	3.8%	11.6%	0.0%
2026-10-16T09:41:40+00:00	8.2%	0.0%	3.8%	11.6%	0.0%
2026-10-16T10:26:46+00:00	8.2%	0.0%	3.8%	11.6%	0.0%
2026-10-16T11:12:03+00:00	8.2%	0.0%	4.0%	11.6%	0.0%
2026-10-16T11:57:35+00:00	8.2%	0.0%	4.0%	11.6%	0.0%
2026-10-16T12:42:45+00:00	8.2%	0.0%	4.0%	11.6%	0.0%
2026-10-16T13:27:57+00:00	9.0%	0.0%	4.0%	7.0%	0.0%
2026-10-16T14:19:39+00:00	9.0%	0.0%	4.0%	7.0%	0.0%
2026-10-16T15:05:08+00:00	9.0%	0.0%	4.0%	7.0%	0.0%
2026-10-16T15:50:53+00:00	9.0%	0.0%	4.0%	7.0%	0.0%
2026-10-16T16:36:03+00:00	9.0%	0.0%	4.0%	7.0%	0.0%
2026-10-16T17:21:16+00:00	9.0%	0.0%	4.3%	7.0%	0.0%
2026-10-16T18:06:35+00:00	9.0%	0.0%	4.3%	7.0%	0.0%
2026-10-16T18:51:41+00:00	9.0%	0.0%	4.3%	7.0%	0.0%
2026-10-16T19:36:50+00:00	8.2%	0.0%	4.3%	7.0%	0.1%
2026-10-16T20:22:21+00:00	8.2%	0.0%	4.3%	7.0%	0.1%
2026-10-16T21:07:44+00:00	8.2%	0.0%	4.3%	7.0%	0.1%
2026-10-16T21:52:50+00:00	8.2%	0.0%	4.3%	7.0%	0.1%
2026-10-16T22:37:58+00:00	8.2%	0.0%	4.3%	8.1%	0.1%
2026-10-16T23:23:15+00:00	8.2%	0.0%	4.3%	8.1%	0.1%
2026-10-17T00:08:46+00:00	8.2%	0.0%	4.3%	8.1%	0.1%
2026-10-17T00:54:54+00:00	8.2%	0.0%	4.3%	8.1%	0.1%
2026-10-17T01:40:03+00:00	7.5%	0.0%	4.3%	8.1%	0.1%
2026-10-17T02:25:17+00:00	7.5%	0.0%	4.3%	8.1%	0.1%
2026-10-17T03:10:26+00:00	7.5%	0.0%	4.3%	8.1%	0.1%
2026-10-17T03:55:35+00:00	7.5%	0.0%	4.3%	8.1%	0.1%
2026-10-17T04:40:53+00:00	7.5%	0.0%	4.3%	8.1%	0.1%
2026-10-17T05:28:05+00:00	7.5%	0.0%	4.3%	8.1%	0.1%
2026-10-17T06:13:33+00:00	7.5%	0.0%	3.7%	8.1%	0.1%
2026-10-17T06:58:42+00:00	7.5%	0.0%	3.7%	8.1%	0.1%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
NWS forecast	88%	55.0°F	2.1°F	2026-10-17 03:00	0.7797
National Blend	87%	55.0°F	2.2°F	2026-10-17 00:00	0.7534
IFS HRES	8%	62.7°F	3.7°F	2026-10-16 12:00	0.0066
AIFS Single	8%	63.2°F	4.0°F	2026-10-16 18:00	0.0056
WeatherNext 2	4%	62.7°F	2.9°F	2026-10-16 18:00	0.0014
ICON	<1%	68.8°F	3.5°F	2026-10-16 12:00	0.0000
IFS Ensemble	<1%	77.8°F	4.7°F	2026-10-16 00:00	0.0000

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≤ 57°F · KBWI

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KBWI-20261017-TMAX-LE57
Opened Oct 13 · 08:02 UTC

Original listing: Baltimore stays cold-for-here: high ≤ 57°F · Sat Oct 17

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗