KBWI / Sat Oct 17 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Baltimore, MDHigh ≤ 57°F

FINAL OUTCOMENOOct 17 · 06:58 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

<1%

<1%

Consensus

13%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

HRESYES 4.0¢Risks 1.01u

EPSNO 96.0¢Risks 23.99u

25 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

HRES +23.99u · EPS −23.99u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-10-02T06:00:00+00:00	75.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-02T12:00:00+00:00	78.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-02T18:00:00+00:00	45.8%	—	27.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-03T00:00:00+00:00	24.0%	—	—	—	—	11.2%
2026-10-03T06:00:00+00:00	20.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-03T12:00:00+00:00	13.4%	—	—	—	—	17.2%
2026-10-03T18:00:00+00:00	0.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-04T00:00:00+00:00	54.8%	—	—	—	—	12.3%
2026-10-04T06:00:00+00:00	11.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-04T12:00:00+00:00	3.9%	—	—	—	—	9.3%
2026-10-04T18:00:00+00:00	10.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-05T00:00:00+00:00	30.6%	—	—	—	—	4.7%
2026-10-05T06:00:00+00:00	29.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-05T12:00:00+00:00	50.5%	—	—	—	—	9.3%
2026-10-05T18:00:00+00:00	5.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-06T00:00:00+00:00	66.0%	—	—	—	—	8.7%
2026-10-06T06:00:00+00:00	47.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-06T12:00:00+00:00	62.1%	—	—	—	—	17.1%
2026-10-06T18:00:00+00:00	52.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T00:00:00+00:00	41.8%	—	—	—	—	18.1%
2026-10-07T06:00:00+00:00	25.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T12:00:00+00:00	0.5%	—	—	—	—	18.5%
2026-10-07T18:00:00+00:00	15.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T00:00:00+00:00	8.3%	—	1.7%	—	—	12.3%
2026-10-08T06:00:00+00:00	3.8%	—	0.9%	—	—	—
2026-10-08T12:00:00+00:00	5.3%	—	0.1%	—	—	7.2%
2026-10-08T18:00:00+00:00	28.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T00:00:00+00:00	1.3%	—	2.0%	—	—	11.3%
2026-10-09T06:00:00+00:00	29.8%	—	1.1%	—	—	—
2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:00	17.6%	—	1.6%	—	—	16.0%
2026-10-09T18:00:00+00:00	54.0%	—	1.1%	—	—	—
2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:00	65.8%	2.6%	2.6%	—	—	18.0%
2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:00	57.5%	—	0.6%	—	—	—
2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00	73.7%	0.4%	0.3%	41.6%	—	18.9%
2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00	74.7%	—	0.2%	—	—	—
2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00	73.4%	—	1.1%	27.2%	—	17.9%
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00	78.4%	—	3.2%	—	—	—
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00	81.1%	33.7%	11.8%	27.7%	—	33.0%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00	76.5%	—	25.3%	—	—	—
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00	70.5%	10.4%	12.3%	10.8%	—	37.5%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00	62.1%	29.7%	17.9%	—	—	—
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00	60.7%	8.7%	10.4%	26.5%	—	44.2%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00	54.3%	26.7%	20.1%	—	—	—
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00	66.2%	4.7%	32.2%	23.4%	—	48.2%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00	64.1%	10.8%	28.7%	—	—	—
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00	59.1%	2.1%	8.6%	9.8%	—	34.7%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00	35.2%	0.2%	2.7%	—	—	7.0%
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00	33.0%	0.0%	0.1%	0.7%	—	2.9%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00	28.2%	0.0%	0.0%	—	—	2.1%
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00	21.9%	0.0%	0.0%	0.1%	—	2.4%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00	29.8%	0.0%	0.7%	—	—	4.7%
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00	24.7%	0.0%	0.3%	1.7%	0.3%	4.0%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00	37.8%	0.0%	2.7%	3.3%	—	—
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00	28.9%	0.0%	2.2%	5.1%	—	8.1%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00	32.5%	0.0%	0.7%	5.5%	—	11.4%
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00	30.9%	0.0%	0.4%	6.7%	0.1%	9.5%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00	32.5%	0.0%	0.4%	8.7%	—	7.7%
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00	29.5%	0.0%	0.1%	7.9%	0.0%	5.7%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00	26.5%	0.0%	0.0%	5.0%	—	6.7%
2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00	17.2%	0.0%	0.0%	8.9%	0.0%	5.9%
2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00	81.9%	4.1%	3.4%	19.2%	—	32.5%
2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00	83.9%	85.8%	50.0%	88.3%	94.8%	93.4%
2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00	100.0%	67.6%	45.1%	92.7%	—	85.0%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
NWS forecast	88%	55.0°F	2.1°F	2026-10-17 03:00	0.7797
National Blend	87%	55.0°F	2.2°F	2026-10-17 00:00	0.7534
IFS HRES	8%	62.7°F	3.7°F	2026-10-16 12:00	0.0066
AIFS Single	8%	63.2°F	4.0°F	2026-10-16 18:00	0.0056
WeatherNext 2	4%	62.7°F	2.9°F	2026-10-16 18:00	0.0014
ICON	<1%	68.8°F	3.5°F	2026-10-16 12:00	0.0000
IFS Ensemble	<1%	77.8°F	4.7°F	2026-10-16 00:00	0.0000

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≤ 57°F · KBWI

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KBWI-20261017-TMAX-LE57
Opened Oct 13 · 08:02 UTC

Original listing: Baltimore stays cold-for-here: high ≤ 57°F · Sat Oct 17

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗