KBWI / Sun Oct 18 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Baltimore, MDHigh ≥ 57°F

FINAL OUTCOMEYESOct 17 · 14:39 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

>99%

96%

93%

79%

76%

Consensus

93%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

WN2YES 87.7¢Risks 87.70u

ICONNO 12.3¢Risks 12.30u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

WN2 +12.30u · ICON −12.30u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-10-03T06:00:00+00:00	6.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-03T12:00:00+00:00	19.3%	—	—	—	—	46.3%
2026-10-03T18:00:00+00:00	76.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-04T00:00:00+00:00	47.3%	—	—	—	—	90.2%
2026-10-04T06:00:00+00:00	95.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-04T12:00:00+00:00	96.3%	—	—	—	—	90.7%
2026-10-04T18:00:00+00:00	99.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-05T00:00:00+00:00	71.7%	—	—	—	—	92.1%
2026-10-05T06:00:00+00:00	87.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-05T12:00:00+00:00	57.4%	—	—	—	—	83.5%
2026-10-05T18:00:00+00:00	19.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-06T00:00:00+00:00	28.3%	—	—	—	—	88.5%
2026-10-06T06:00:00+00:00	23.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-06T12:00:00+00:00	68.0%	—	—	—	—	76.4%
2026-10-06T18:00:00+00:00	55.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T00:00:00+00:00	68.0%	—	—	—	—	74.8%
2026-10-07T06:00:00+00:00	74.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T12:00:00+00:00	96.1%	—	—	—	—	75.2%
2026-10-07T18:00:00+00:00	78.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T00:00:00+00:00	69.0%	—	—	—	—	74.2%
2026-10-08T06:00:00+00:00	42.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T12:00:00+00:00	81.1%	—	—	—	—	77.9%
2026-10-08T18:00:00+00:00	32.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T00:00:00+00:00	97.5%	—	—	—	—	71.7%
2026-10-09T06:00:00+00:00	37.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:00	16.9%	—	42.8%	—	—	75.8%
2026-10-09T18:00:00+00:00	18.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:00	33.0%	—	79.8%	—	—	65.3%
2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:00	12.4%	—	29.3%	—	—	—
2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00	38.4%	—	53.2%	—	—	66.4%
2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00	40.8%	—	14.4%	—	—	—
2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00	24.9%	—	16.3%	—	—	51.3%
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00	35.2%	—	12.7%	—	—	—
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00	78.1%	83.8%	33.0%	51.4%	—	62.4%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00	90.8%	—	49.3%	—	—	—
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00	83.5%	94.9%	51.5%	67.7%	—	69.0%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00	66.7%	—	67.3%	—	—	—
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00	75.5%	85.8%	61.3%	89.0%	—	64.2%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00	83.6%	—	56.2%	—	—	—
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00	64.8%	93.6%	82.1%	80.5%	—	65.5%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00	57.3%	32.6%	90.5%	—	—	—
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00	57.5%	94.7%	93.9%	59.9%	—	63.1%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00	43.2%	85.8%	96.2%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00	43.0%	82.8%	96.1%	67.8%	—	34.6%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00	51.8%	65.8%	93.5%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00	68.6%	67.0%	92.4%	40.0%	—	30.6%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00	73.2%	67.4%	86.3%	—	—	31.8%
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00	74.5%	78.2%	88.4%	46.1%	—	42.3%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00	79.6%	72.6%	87.6%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00	79.5%	81.0%	73.2%	52.1%	—	54.1%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00	76.3%	85.0%	77.2%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00	75.3%	78.7%	56.5%	59.7%	—	38.2%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00	83.2%	81.0%	64.3%	0.8%	—	53.4%
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00	80.1%	79.3%	75.8%	70.0%	—	63.7%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00	84.8%	84.8%	80.9%	73.7%	—	70.7%
2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00	86.3%	88.2%	86.3%	79.2%	53.7%	71.3%
2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00	88.5%	83.4%	90.2%	86.5%	—	76.2%
2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00	85.9%	86.6%	93.0%	92.6%	59.3%	77.0%
2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00	91.9%	90.8%	94.6%	86.8%	—	79.9%
2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00	90.5%	93.2%	97.3%	86.2%	72.0%	82.8%
2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00	90.8%	94.0%	97.8%	88.0%	—	78.7%
2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00	91.1%	91.7%	96.6%	88.3%	68.3%	76.2%
2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00	0.0%	95.1%	97.9%	85.0%	—	—

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
WeatherNext 2	>99%	63.7°F	2.9°F	2026-10-17 00:00	0.0000
AIFS Single	96%	63.6°F	3.9°F	2026-10-17 06:00	0.0013
IFS Ensemble	93%	61.1°F	3.1°F	2026-10-17 00:00	0.0048
National Blend	87%	59.0°F	2.2°F	2026-10-17 06:00	0.0164
IFS HRES	79%	59.5°F	3.7°F	2026-10-17 00:00	0.0441
ICON	76%	59.0°F	3.5°F	2026-10-17 00:00	0.0571
NWS forecast	56%	57.0°F	3.1°F	2026-10-17 03:00	0.1901

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 57°F · KBWI

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KBWI-20261018-TMAX-GE57
Opened Oct 11 · 07:31 UTC

Original listing: Baltimore high ≥ 57°F · Sun Oct 18

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗