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KBWI / Sun Oct 18 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Baltimore, MDHigh ≥ 60°F

FINAL OUTCOMEYESOct 18 · 07:15 UTC
THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%
WN2
93%
AIFS
87%
EPS
73%
HRES
57%
ICON
39%
Consensus
73%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED
WN2YES 65.9¢Risks 65.90u
VS
ICONNO 34.1¢Risks 34.10u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

WN2 +34.10u · ICON −34.10u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

RecordedReconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

0%25%50%75%100%AIFS Single: 48.4% · 2026-10-14T02:59:29+00:00AIFS Single: 48.4% · 2026-10-14T03:45:25+00:00AIFS Single: 48.4% · 2026-10-14T04:30:43+00:00AIFS Single: 48.4% · 2026-10-14T05:15:50+00:00AIFS Single: 48.4% · 2026-10-14T06:00:57+00:00AIFS Single: 48.4% · 2026-10-14T06:46:08+00:00AIFS Single: 49.1% · 2026-10-14T07:31:24+00:00AIFS Single: 49.1% · 2026-10-14T08:16:33+00:00AIFS Single: 49.1% · 2026-10-14T09:01:43+00:00AIFS Single: 49.1% · 2026-10-14T09:46:51+00:00AIFS Single: 49.1% · 2026-10-14T10:32:07+00:00AIFS Single: 49.1% · 2026-10-14T11:20:31+00:00AIFS Single: 49.1% · 2026-10-14T12:06:10+00:00AIFS Single: 49.1% · 2026-10-14T12:51:18+00:00AIFS Single: 57.8% · 2026-10-14T13:36:25+00:00AIFS Single: 57.8% · 2026-10-14T14:26:47+00:00AIFS Single: 86.8% · 2026-10-18T04:13:39+00:00AIFS Single: 86.8% · 2026-10-18T05:00:10+00:00AIFS Single: 86.8% · 2026-10-18T05:45:17+00:00AIFS Single: 86.8% · 2026-10-18T06:30:24+00:00AIFS Single: 86.8% · 2026-10-18T07:15:31+00:00IFS Ensemble: 62.2% · 2026-10-14T02:59:29+00:00IFS Ensemble: 62.2% · 2026-10-14T03:45:25+00:00IFS Ensemble: 62.2% · 2026-10-14T04:30:43+00:00IFS Ensemble: 62.2% · 2026-10-14T05:15:50+00:00IFS Ensemble: 62.2% · 2026-10-14T06:00:57+00:00IFS Ensemble: 62.2% · 2026-10-14T06:46:08+00:00IFS Ensemble: 62.2% · 2026-10-14T07:31:24+00:00IFS Ensemble: 62.2% · 2026-10-14T08:16:33+00:00IFS Ensemble: 62.2% · 2026-10-14T09:01:43+00:00IFS Ensemble: 62.2% · 2026-10-14T09:46:51+00:00IFS Ensemble: 62.2% · 2026-10-14T10:32:07+00:00IFS Ensemble: 31.8% · 2026-10-14T11:20:31+00:00IFS Ensemble: 31.8% · 2026-10-14T12:06:10+00:00IFS Ensemble: 31.8% · 2026-10-14T12:51:18+00:00IFS Ensemble: 31.8% · 2026-10-14T13:36:25+00:00IFS Ensemble: 31.8% · 2026-10-14T14:26:47+00:00IFS Ensemble: 73.4% · 2026-10-18T04:13:39+00:00IFS Ensemble: 73.4% · 2026-10-18T05:00:10+00:00IFS Ensemble: 73.4% · 2026-10-18T05:45:17+00:00IFS Ensemble: 73.4% · 2026-10-18T06:30:24+00:00IFS Ensemble: 73.4% · 2026-10-18T07:15:31+00:00WeatherNext 2: 82.8% · 2026-10-14T02:59:29+00:00WeatherNext 2: 82.8% · 2026-10-14T03:45:25+00:00WeatherNext 2: 82.8% · 2026-10-14T04:30:43+00:00WeatherNext 2: 82.8% · 2026-10-14T05:15:50+00:00WeatherNext 2: 82.8% · 2026-10-14T06:00:57+00:00WeatherNext 2: 82.8% · 2026-10-14T06:46:08+00:00WeatherNext 2: 82.8% · 2026-10-14T07:31:24+00:00WeatherNext 2: 82.8% · 2026-10-14T08:16:33+00:00WeatherNext 2: 82.8% · 2026-10-14T09:01:43+00:00WeatherNext 2: 82.8% · 2026-10-14T09:46:51+00:00WeatherNext 2: 82.8% · 2026-10-14T10:32:07+00:00WeatherNext 2: 82.0% · 2026-10-14T11:20:31+00:00WeatherNext 2: 82.0% · 2026-10-14T12:06:10+00:00WeatherNext 2: 82.0% · 2026-10-14T12:51:18+00:00WeatherNext 2: 82.0% · 2026-10-14T13:36:25+00:00WeatherNext 2: 82.0% · 2026-10-14T14:26:47+00:00WeatherNext 2: 91.5% · 2026-10-18T04:13:39+00:00WeatherNext 2: 93.0% · 2026-10-18T05:00:10+00:00WeatherNext 2: 93.0% · 2026-10-18T05:45:17+00:00WeatherNext 2: 93.0% · 2026-10-18T06:30:24+00:00WeatherNext 2: 93.0% · 2026-10-18T07:15:31+00:00IFS HRES: 55.5% · 2026-10-14T02:59:29+00:00IFS HRES: 55.5% · 2026-10-14T03:45:25+00:00IFS HRES: 55.5% · 2026-10-14T04:30:43+00:00IFS HRES: 55.5% · 2026-10-14T05:15:50+00:00IFS HRES: 55.5% · 2026-10-14T06:00:57+00:00IFS HRES: 55.5% · 2026-10-14T06:46:08+00:00IFS HRES: 55.5% · 2026-10-14T07:31:24+00:00IFS HRES: 55.5% · 2026-10-14T08:16:33+00:00IFS HRES: 55.5% · 2026-10-14T09:01:43+00:00IFS HRES: 55.5% · 2026-10-14T09:46:51+00:00IFS HRES: 25.5% · 2026-10-14T10:32:07+00:00IFS HRES: 25.5% · 2026-10-14T11:20:31+00:00IFS HRES: 25.5% · 2026-10-14T12:06:10+00:00IFS HRES: 25.5% · 2026-10-14T12:51:18+00:00IFS HRES: 25.5% · 2026-10-14T13:36:25+00:00IFS HRES: 25.5% · 2026-10-14T14:26:47+00:00IFS HRES: 57.5% · 2026-10-18T04:13:39+00:00IFS HRES: 57.5% · 2026-10-18T05:00:10+00:00IFS HRES: 57.5% · 2026-10-18T05:45:17+00:00IFS HRES: 57.5% · 2026-10-18T06:30:24+00:00IFS HRES: 57.5% · 2026-10-18T07:15:31+00:00ICON: 89.2% · 2026-10-14T02:59:29+00:00ICON: 89.2% · 2026-10-14T03:45:25+00:00ICON: 89.2% · 2026-10-14T04:30:43+00:00ICON: 89.2% · 2026-10-14T05:15:50+00:00ICON: 89.2% · 2026-10-14T06:00:57+00:00ICON: 89.2% · 2026-10-14T06:46:08+00:00ICON: 72.6% · 2026-10-14T07:31:24+00:00ICON: 72.6% · 2026-10-14T08:16:33+00:00ICON: 72.6% · 2026-10-14T09:01:43+00:00ICON: 72.6% · 2026-10-14T09:46:51+00:00ICON: 72.6% · 2026-10-14T10:32:07+00:00ICON: 72.6% · 2026-10-14T11:20:31+00:00ICON: 72.6% · 2026-10-14T12:06:10+00:00ICON: 72.6% · 2026-10-14T12:51:18+00:00ICON: 72.6% · 2026-10-14T13:36:25+00:00ICON: 73.3% · 2026-10-14T14:26:47+00:00ICON: 38.8% · 2026-10-18T04:13:39+00:00ICON: 38.8% · 2026-10-18T05:00:10+00:00ICON: 38.8% · 2026-10-18T05:45:17+00:00ICON: 38.8% · 2026-10-18T06:30:24+00:00ICON: 38.8% · 2026-10-18T07:15:31+00:0010-14 02:5910-14 10:3210-18 07:15
AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON
2026-10-18T07:15:31+00:00 · UTC
View the forecast data
UTCAIFSEPSWN2HRESICON
2026-10-14T02:59:29+00:0048.4%62.2%82.8%55.5%89.2%
2026-10-14T03:45:25+00:0048.4%62.2%82.8%55.5%89.2%
2026-10-14T04:30:43+00:0048.4%62.2%82.8%55.5%89.2%
2026-10-14T05:15:50+00:0048.4%62.2%82.8%55.5%89.2%
2026-10-14T06:00:57+00:0048.4%62.2%82.8%55.5%89.2%
2026-10-14T06:46:08+00:0048.4%62.2%82.8%55.5%89.2%
2026-10-14T07:31:24+00:0049.1%62.2%82.8%55.5%72.6%
2026-10-14T08:16:33+00:0049.1%62.2%82.8%55.5%72.6%
2026-10-14T09:01:43+00:0049.1%62.2%82.8%55.5%72.6%
2026-10-14T09:46:51+00:0049.1%62.2%82.8%55.5%72.6%
2026-10-14T10:32:07+00:0049.1%62.2%82.8%25.5%72.6%
2026-10-14T11:20:31+00:0049.1%31.8%82.0%25.5%72.6%
2026-10-14T12:06:10+00:0049.1%31.8%82.0%25.5%72.6%
2026-10-14T12:51:18+00:0049.1%31.8%82.0%25.5%72.6%
2026-10-14T13:36:25+00:0057.8%31.8%82.0%25.5%72.6%
2026-10-14T14:26:47+00:0057.8%31.8%82.0%25.5%73.3%
2026-10-18T04:13:39+00:0086.8%73.4%91.5%57.5%38.8%
2026-10-18T05:00:10+00:0086.8%73.4%93.0%57.5%38.8%
2026-10-18T05:45:17+00:0086.8%73.4%93.0%57.5%38.8%
2026-10-18T06:30:24+00:0086.8%73.4%93.0%57.5%38.8%
2026-10-18T07:15:31+00:0086.8%73.4%93.0%57.5%38.8%
THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODELYESMEANSPREAD σINITIALIZATION UTCBRIER ↓
WeatherNext 293%63.8°F2.9°F2026-10-17 18:000.0049
AIFS Single87%63.9°F3.9°F2026-10-17 18:000.0174
IFS Ensemble73%61.4°F3.0°F2026-10-17 00:000.0708
NWS forecast59%60.0°F2.1°F2026-10-18 03:000.1665
National Blend59%60.0°F2.2°F2026-10-18 00:000.1697
IFS HRES57%60.2°F3.7°F2026-10-17 12:000.1806
ICON39%58.5°F3.5°F2026-10-17 12:000.3745

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 60°F · KBWI

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KBWI-20261018-TMAX-GE60
Opened Oct 14 · 02:59 UTC

Original listing: Baltimore high ≥ 60°F · Sun Oct 18

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗