KBWI / Sun Oct 18 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Baltimore, MDHigh ≥ 60°F

FINAL OUTCOMEYESOct 18 · 07:15 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

93%

87%

73%

57%

39%

Consensus

73%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

WN2YES 65.9¢Risks 65.90u

ICONNO 34.1¢Risks 34.10u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

WN2 +34.10u · ICON −34.10u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-10-03T06:00:00+00:00	2.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-03T12:00:00+00:00	10.3%	—	—	—	—	31.1%
2026-10-03T18:00:00+00:00	63.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-04T00:00:00+00:00	32.0%	—	—	—	—	81.4%
2026-10-04T06:00:00+00:00	89.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-04T12:00:00+00:00	91.7%	—	—	—	—	82.1%
2026-10-04T18:00:00+00:00	98.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-05T00:00:00+00:00	56.9%	—	—	—	—	84.5%
2026-10-05T06:00:00+00:00	77.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-05T12:00:00+00:00	41.5%	—	—	—	—	71.7%
2026-10-05T18:00:00+00:00	10.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-06T00:00:00+00:00	16.5%	—	—	—	—	78.8%
2026-10-06T06:00:00+00:00	12.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-06T12:00:00+00:00	52.7%	—	—	—	—	62.5%
2026-10-06T18:00:00+00:00	39.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T00:00:00+00:00	52.7%	—	—	—	—	60.5%
2026-10-07T06:00:00+00:00	60.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T12:00:00+00:00	91.4%	—	—	—	—	61.1%
2026-10-07T18:00:00+00:00	64.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T00:00:00+00:00	53.3%	—	—	—	—	59.3%
2026-10-08T06:00:00+00:00	27.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T12:00:00+00:00	67.6%	—	—	—	—	63.4%
2026-10-08T18:00:00+00:00	18.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T00:00:00+00:00	93.5%	—	—	—	—	55.3%
2026-10-09T06:00:00+00:00	21.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:00	7.9%	—	26.2%	—	—	59.6%
2026-10-09T18:00:00+00:00	8.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:00	18.1%	—	64.1%	—	—	46.9%
2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:00	5.1%	—	15.2%	—	—	—
2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00	21.7%	—	34.2%	—	—	47.4%
2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00	23.2%	—	5.9%	—	—	—
2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00	11.8%	—	6.8%	—	—	31.8%
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00	18.4%	—	4.9%	—	—	—
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00	59.7%	67.7%	16.6%	31.1%	—	41.6%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00	78.5%	—	28.9%	—	—	—
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00	66.3%	86.1%	30.4%	46.4%	—	47.8%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00	44.8%	—	45.5%	—	—	—
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00	54.6%	69.1%	38.7%	74.2%	—	41.7%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00	65.2%	—	33.4%	—	—	—
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00	41.3%	82.1%	62.5%	60.3%	—	42.1%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00	33.4%	14.4%	75.7%	—	—	—
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00	33.0%	83.8%	82.2%	35.3%	—	38.5%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00	20.8%	66.6%	87.2%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00	20.2%	61.3%	86.4%	42.2%	—	14.6%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00	26.4%	39.3%	79.8%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00	41.8%	40.0%	77.0%	17.2%	—	11.5%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00	46.2%	39.7%	64.8%	—	—	11.8%
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00	47.1%	51.9%	67.8%	20.3%	—	17.7%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00	53.0%	44.0%	65.6%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00	52.1%	54.1%	43.9%	23.5%	—	25.1%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00	46.8%	59.5%	47.9%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00	44.5%	48.9%	25.5%	28.2%	—	13.1%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00	54.5%	51.1%	31.5%	0.1%	—	22.3%
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00	48.8%	47.7%	43.0%	36.3%	—	30.0%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00	54.8%	54.8%	48.8%	39.3%	—	35.9%
2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00	56.2%	59.9%	56.2%	45.0%	19.9%	35.4%
2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00	59.0%	50.0%	62.7%	55.1%	—	39.8%
2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00	52.7%	54.0%	68.1%	66.9%	22.0%	39.4%
2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00	63.7%	61.0%	71.2%	52.8%	—	41.7%
2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00	58.6%	65.5%	79.8%	50.0%	30.5%	44.2%
2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00	57.5%	66.2%	80.8%	51.5%	—	36.6%
2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00	56.3%	57.9%	73.7%	50.0%	23.8%	31.7%
2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00	0.0%	66.1%	78.5%	41.8%	—	—

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
WeatherNext 2	93%	63.8°F	2.9°F	2026-10-17 18:00	0.0049
AIFS Single	87%	63.9°F	3.9°F	2026-10-17 18:00	0.0174
IFS Ensemble	73%	61.4°F	3.0°F	2026-10-17 00:00	0.0708
NWS forecast	59%	60.0°F	2.1°F	2026-10-18 03:00	0.1665
National Blend	59%	60.0°F	2.2°F	2026-10-18 00:00	0.1697
IFS HRES	57%	60.2°F	3.7°F	2026-10-17 12:00	0.1806
ICON	39%	58.5°F	3.5°F	2026-10-17 12:00	0.3745

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 60°F · KBWI

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KBWI-20261018-TMAX-GE60
Opened Oct 14 · 02:59 UTC

Original listing: Baltimore high ≥ 60°F · Sun Oct 18

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗