KBWI / Sun Oct 18 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Baltimore, MDHigh ≤ 56°F

FINAL OUTCOMENOOct 18 · 07:15 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

28%

16%

<1%

Consensus

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

ICONYES 14.5¢Risks 14.55u

WN2NO 85.5¢Risks 85.45u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

ICON +85.45u · WN2 −85.45u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-10-03T06:00:00+00:00	93.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-03T12:00:00+00:00	80.7%	—	—	—	—	53.7%
2026-10-03T18:00:00+00:00	23.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-04T00:00:00+00:00	52.7%	—	—	—	—	9.8%
2026-10-04T06:00:00+00:00	5.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-04T12:00:00+00:00	3.7%	—	—	—	—	9.3%
2026-10-04T18:00:00+00:00	0.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-05T00:00:00+00:00	28.3%	—	—	—	—	7.9%
2026-10-05T06:00:00+00:00	12.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-05T12:00:00+00:00	42.6%	—	—	—	—	16.5%
2026-10-05T18:00:00+00:00	80.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-06T00:00:00+00:00	71.7%	—	—	—	—	11.5%
2026-10-06T06:00:00+00:00	76.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-06T12:00:00+00:00	32.0%	—	—	—	—	23.6%
2026-10-06T18:00:00+00:00	44.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T00:00:00+00:00	32.0%	—	—	—	—	25.2%
2026-10-07T06:00:00+00:00	25.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T12:00:00+00:00	3.9%	—	—	—	—	24.8%
2026-10-07T18:00:00+00:00	21.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T00:00:00+00:00	31.0%	—	—	—	—	25.8%
2026-10-08T06:00:00+00:00	57.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T12:00:00+00:00	18.9%	—	—	—	—	22.1%
2026-10-08T18:00:00+00:00	67.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T00:00:00+00:00	2.5%	—	—	—	—	28.3%
2026-10-09T06:00:00+00:00	62.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:00	83.1%	—	57.2%	—	—	24.2%
2026-10-09T18:00:00+00:00	81.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:00	67.0%	—	20.2%	—	—	34.7%
2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:00	87.6%	—	70.7%	—	—	—
2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00	61.6%	—	46.8%	—	—	33.6%
2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00	59.2%	—	85.6%	—	—	—
2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00	75.1%	—	83.7%	—	—	48.6%
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00	64.8%	—	87.3%	—	—	—
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00	21.9%	16.2%	67.0%	48.6%	—	37.6%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00	9.2%	—	50.7%	—	—	—
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00	16.5%	5.1%	48.5%	32.3%	—	31.0%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00	33.3%	—	32.6%	—	—	—
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00	24.5%	14.2%	38.7%	11.0%	—	35.8%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00	16.4%	—	43.8%	—	—	—
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00	35.2%	6.4%	17.9%	19.5%	—	34.5%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00	42.7%	67.4%	9.5%	—	—	—
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00	42.5%	5.3%	6.1%	40.1%	—	36.9%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00	56.8%	14.2%	3.8%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00	57.0%	17.2%	3.9%	32.2%	—	65.4%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00	48.2%	34.2%	6.6%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00	31.4%	33.0%	7.6%	60.0%	—	69.5%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00	26.9%	32.6%	13.7%	—	—	68.2%
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00	25.5%	21.8%	11.6%	53.9%	—	57.7%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00	20.4%	27.4%	12.4%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00	20.4%	19.0%	26.8%	47.9%	—	45.9%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00	23.6%	15.0%	22.8%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00	24.7%	21.3%	43.5%	40.3%	—	61.8%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00	16.8%	19.0%	35.7%	99.2%	—	46.6%
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00	19.9%	20.7%	24.2%	30.0%	—	36.3%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00	15.2%	15.2%	19.1%	26.3%	—	29.3%
2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00	13.7%	11.8%	13.7%	20.8%	46.3%	28.7%
2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00	11.5%	16.6%	9.8%	13.5%	—	23.8%
2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00	14.1%	13.4%	7.0%	7.4%	40.7%	23.0%
2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00	8.1%	9.2%	5.4%	13.2%	—	20.1%
2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00	9.5%	6.8%	2.7%	13.8%	28.0%	17.2%
2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00	9.2%	6.0%	2.2%	12.0%	—	21.3%
2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00	8.9%	8.3%	3.4%	11.7%	31.7%	23.8%
2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00	100.0%	4.9%	2.1%	15.0%	—	—

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
ICON	28%	58.5°F	3.5°F	2026-10-17 12:00	0.0812
IFS HRES	16%	60.2°F	3.7°F	2026-10-17 12:00	0.0256
National Blend	6%	60.0°F	2.2°F	2026-10-18 00:00	0.0035
IFS Ensemble	5%	61.4°F	3.0°F	2026-10-17 00:00	0.0028
NWS forecast	5%	60.0°F	2.1°F	2026-10-18 03:00	0.0027
AIFS Single	3%	63.9°F	3.9°F	2026-10-17 18:00	0.0009
WeatherNext 2	<1%	63.8°F	2.9°F	2026-10-17 18:00	0.0000

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≤ 56°F · KBWI

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KBWI-20261018-TMAX-LE56
Opened Oct 14 · 10:32 UTC

Original listing: Baltimore stays cold-for-here: high ≤ 56°F · Sun Oct 18

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗