KBWI / Mon Oct 19 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Baltimore, MDHigh ≥ 60°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST93%Oct 17 · 03:55 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

>99%

98%

95%

91%

58%

Consensus

93%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

WN2YES 78.8¢Risks 78.80u

EPSNO 21.2¢Risks 21.20u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

WN2 +21.20u · EPS −21.20u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-17T03:55:35+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	EPS	WN2	HRES	ICON
2026-10-16T15:05:08+00:00	95.4%	57.8%	98.1%	49.1%	94.4%
2026-10-16T15:50:53+00:00	95.4%	57.9%	98.1%	49.1%	94.4%
2026-10-16T16:36:04+00:00	95.4%	57.9%	98.1%	49.1%	94.4%
2026-10-16T17:21:16+00:00	95.4%	57.9%	99.6%	49.1%	94.4%
2026-10-16T18:06:35+00:00	95.4%	57.9%	99.6%	49.1%	94.4%
2026-10-16T18:51:41+00:00	95.4%	57.9%	99.6%	49.1%	94.4%
2026-10-16T19:36:50+00:00	97.1%	57.9%	99.6%	49.1%	95.4%
2026-10-16T20:22:21+00:00	97.1%	57.9%	99.6%	49.1%	95.4%
2026-10-16T21:07:44+00:00	97.1%	57.9%	99.6%	49.1%	95.4%
2026-10-16T21:52:50+00:00	97.1%	57.9%	99.6%	49.1%	95.4%
2026-10-16T22:37:58+00:00	97.1%	57.9%	99.6%	91.4%	95.4%
2026-10-16T23:23:15+00:00	97.1%	57.9%	99.7%	91.4%	95.4%
2026-10-17T00:08:46+00:00	97.1%	57.9%	99.7%	91.4%	95.4%
2026-10-17T00:54:54+00:00	97.1%	57.9%	99.7%	91.4%	95.4%
2026-10-17T01:40:03+00:00	98.0%	57.9%	99.7%	91.4%	95.4%
2026-10-17T02:25:17+00:00	98.0%	57.9%	99.7%	91.4%	95.4%
2026-10-17T03:10:26+00:00	98.0%	57.9%	99.7%	91.4%	95.4%
2026-10-17T03:55:35+00:00	98.0%	57.9%	99.7%	91.4%	95.4%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
WeatherNext 2	>99%	68.8°F	3.4°F	2026-10-16 12:00	Pending
AIFS Single	98%	68.3°F	4.3°F	2026-10-16 18:00	Pending
ICON	95%	66.2°F	4.0°F	2026-10-16 12:00	Pending
IFS HRES	91%	65.6°F	4.5°F	2026-10-16 12:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	58%	60.4°F	4.5°F	2026-10-16 00:00	Pending
NWS forecast	55%	60.0°F	3.9°F	2026-10-16 14:00	Pending
National Blend	55%	60.0°F	4.4°F	2026-10-16 06:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 60°F · KBWI

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KBWI-20261019-TMAX-GE60
Opened Oct 16 · 15:05 UTC

Original listing: Baltimore high ≥ 60°F · Mon Oct 19

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗