KBWI / Mon Oct 19 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Baltimore, MDHigh ≥ 60°F

FINAL OUTCOMEYESOct 17 · 03:55 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

>99%

98%

95%

91%

58%

Consensus

93%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

WN2YES 78.8¢Risks 78.80u

EPSNO 21.2¢Risks 21.20u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

WN2 +21.20u · EPS −21.20u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-19T18:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-10-04T06:00:00+00:00	9.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-04T12:00:00+00:00	51.6%	—	—	—	—	43.6%
2026-10-04T18:00:00+00:00	51.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-05T00:00:00+00:00	86.9%	—	—	—	—	77.6%
2026-10-05T06:00:00+00:00	89.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-05T12:00:00+00:00	67.0%	—	—	—	—	73.0%
2026-10-05T18:00:00+00:00	18.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-06T00:00:00+00:00	69.8%	—	—	—	—	78.0%
2026-10-06T06:00:00+00:00	18.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-06T12:00:00+00:00	81.1%	—	—	—	—	65.5%
2026-10-06T18:00:00+00:00	91.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T00:00:00+00:00	84.8%	—	—	—	—	62.1%
2026-10-07T06:00:00+00:00	86.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T12:00:00+00:00	99.1%	—	—	—	—	67.0%
2026-10-07T18:00:00+00:00	93.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T00:00:00+00:00	93.9%	—	—	—	—	65.0%
2026-10-08T06:00:00+00:00	24.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T12:00:00+00:00	97.3%	—	—	—	—	65.1%
2026-10-08T18:00:00+00:00	19.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T00:00:00+00:00	42.9%	—	—	—	—	59.3%
2026-10-09T06:00:00+00:00	24.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:00	16.0%	—	—	—	—	74.8%
2026-10-09T18:00:00+00:00	69.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:00	52.3%	—	—	—	—	77.3%
2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:00	40.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00	82.7%	—	3.5%	—	—	77.6%
2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00	88.0%	—	19.7%	—	—	—
2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00	75.6%	—	—	—	—	71.5%
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00	77.0%	—	44.9%	—	—	—
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00	86.3%	—	68.8%	—	—	82.0%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00	80.2%	—	90.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00	64.5%	42.6%	88.2%	—	—	78.7%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00	75.5%	—	88.7%	—	—	—
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00	73.1%	46.5%	87.0%	46.5%	—	76.5%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00	82.0%	—	87.5%	—	—	—
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00	78.5%	90.7%	85.2%	89.7%	—	76.3%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00	75.6%	—	97.2%	—	—	—
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00	82.1%	94.2%	97.7%	88.6%	—	74.2%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00	66.6%	—	96.8%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00	77.0%	93.3%	96.9%	56.4%	—	59.5%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00	68.8%	7.9%	96.6%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00	74.2%	84.3%	95.7%	19.5%	—	51.7%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00	78.0%	68.9%	95.1%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00	66.2%	90.3%	88.7%	5.7%	—	57.8%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00	81.6%	88.8%	94.5%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00	72.6%	87.6%	79.1%	69.5%	—	51.8%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00	84.6%	90.4%	74.7%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00	75.3%	91.4%	59.6%	67.8%	—	30.4%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00	82.3%	93.0%	6.0%	—	—	45.0%
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00	88.7%	93.9%	67.0%	79.5%	—	76.5%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00	92.0%	95.8%	86.2%	—	—	86.2%
2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00	94.1%	91.5%	89.6%	93.0%	0.1%	90.6%
2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00	96.7%	92.5%	95.8%	0.8%	—	94.0%
2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00	95.2%	91.5%	95.8%	96.9%	75.8%	94.3%
2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00	96.0%	97.5%	94.5%	97.1%	—	93.8%
2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00	97.0%	97.0%	96.7%	97.4%	0.0%	95.1%
2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00	96.3%	95.4%	96.8%	96.5%	—	91.8%
2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00	97.2%	96.0%	97.2%	95.4%	82.7%	94.7%
2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00	98.5%	98.7%	97.7%	95.7%	—	—
2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00	99.3%	98.4%	98.8%	97.3%	92.7%	97.3%
2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00	99.0%	98.5%	99.2%	96.3%	—	95.9%
2026-10-19T12:00:00+00:00	99.7%	99.4%	99.7%	98.2%	95.9%	97.1%
2026-10-19T18:00:00+00:00	0.3%	100.0%	100.0%	99.7%	—	99.3%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
WeatherNext 2	>99%	68.8°F	3.4°F	2026-10-16 12:00	0.0000
AIFS Single	98%	68.3°F	4.3°F	2026-10-16 18:00	0.0004
ICON	95%	66.2°F	4.0°F	2026-10-16 12:00	0.0021
IFS HRES	91%	65.6°F	4.5°F	2026-10-16 12:00	0.0074
IFS Ensemble	58%	60.4°F	4.5°F	2026-10-16 00:00	0.1772
NWS forecast	55%	60.0°F	3.9°F	2026-10-16 14:00	0.2016
National Blend	55%	60.0°F	4.4°F	2026-10-16 06:00	0.2070

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 60°F · KBWI

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KBWI-20261019-TMAX-GE60
Opened Oct 16 · 15:05 UTC

Original listing: Baltimore high ≥ 60°F · Mon Oct 19

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗