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KBWI / Mon Oct 19 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Baltimore, MDHigh ≥ 63°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST75%Oct 12 · 10:50 UTC
THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%
WN2
90%
HRES
86%
AIFS
70%
EPS
59%
ICON
52%
Consensus
75%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED
WN2YES 70.8¢Risks 70.80u
VS
ICONNO 29.2¢Risks 29.20u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

WN2 +29.20u · ICON −29.20u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

RecordedReconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

0%25%50%75%100%AIFS Single: 69.8% · 2026-10-12T07:47:43+00:00AIFS Single: 69.8% · 2026-10-12T08:34:21+00:00AIFS Single: 69.8% · 2026-10-12T09:19:36+00:00AIFS Single: 69.8% · 2026-10-12T10:04:56+00:00AIFS Single: 69.8% · 2026-10-12T10:50:06+00:00IFS Ensemble: 58.9% · 2026-10-12T07:47:43+00:00IFS Ensemble: 58.9% · 2026-10-12T08:34:21+00:00IFS Ensemble: 58.9% · 2026-10-12T09:19:36+00:00IFS Ensemble: 58.9% · 2026-10-12T10:04:56+00:00IFS Ensemble: 58.9% · 2026-10-12T10:50:06+00:00WeatherNext 2: 90.0% · 2026-10-12T07:47:43+00:00WeatherNext 2: 90.0% · 2026-10-12T08:34:21+00:00WeatherNext 2: 90.0% · 2026-10-12T09:19:36+00:00WeatherNext 2: 90.0% · 2026-10-12T10:04:56+00:00WeatherNext 2: 90.0% · 2026-10-12T10:50:06+00:00IFS HRES: 85.5% · 2026-10-12T07:47:43+00:00IFS HRES: 85.5% · 2026-10-12T08:34:21+00:00IFS HRES: 85.5% · 2026-10-12T09:19:36+00:00IFS HRES: 85.5% · 2026-10-12T10:04:56+00:00IFS HRES: 85.5% · 2026-10-12T10:50:06+00:00ICON: 51.6% · 2026-10-12T07:47:43+00:00ICON: 51.6% · 2026-10-12T08:34:21+00:00ICON: 51.6% · 2026-10-12T09:19:36+00:00ICON: 51.6% · 2026-10-12T10:04:56+00:00ICON: 51.6% · 2026-10-12T10:50:06+00:0010-12 07:4710-12 09:1910-12 10:50
AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON
2026-10-12T10:50:06+00:00 · UTC
View the forecast data
UTCAIFSEPSWN2HRESICON
2026-10-12T07:47:43+00:0069.8%58.9%90.0%85.5%51.6%
2026-10-12T08:34:21+00:0069.8%58.9%90.0%85.5%51.6%
2026-10-12T09:19:36+00:0069.8%58.9%90.0%85.5%51.6%
2026-10-12T10:04:56+00:0069.8%58.9%90.0%85.5%51.6%
2026-10-12T10:50:06+00:0069.8%58.9%90.0%85.5%51.6%
THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODELYESMEANSPREAD σINITIALIZATION UTCBRIER ↓
WeatherNext 290%69.3°F5.3°F2026-10-11 18:00Pending
IFS HRES86%69.2°F6.3°F2026-10-12 00:00Pending
AIFS Single70%65.4°F5.6°F2026-10-12 00:00Pending
IFS Ensemble59%63.6°F4.9°F2026-10-11 00:00Pending
National Blend54%63.0°F5.5°F2026-10-12 00:00Pending
ICON52%62.9°F9.9°F2026-10-12 00:00Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 63°F · KBWI

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KBWI-20261019-TMAX-GE63
Opened Oct 12 · 07:47 UTC

Original listing: Baltimore high ≥ 63°F · Mon Oct 19

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗