KBWI / Mon Oct 19 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Baltimore, MDHigh ≥ 63°F

FINAL OUTCOMEYESOct 12 · 10:50 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

90%

86%

70%

59%

52%

Consensus

75%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

WN2YES 70.8¢Risks 70.80u

ICONNO 29.2¢Risks 29.20u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

WN2 +29.20u · ICON −29.20u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-19T18:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-10-04T06:00:00+00:00	4.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-04T12:00:00+00:00	35.9%	—	—	—	—	28.8%
2026-10-04T18:00:00+00:00	35.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-05T00:00:00+00:00	76.4%	—	—	—	—	64.1%
2026-10-05T06:00:00+00:00	80.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-05T12:00:00+00:00	51.6%	—	—	—	—	58.5%
2026-10-05T18:00:00+00:00	10.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-06T00:00:00+00:00	54.8%	—	—	—	—	64.5%
2026-10-06T06:00:00+00:00	10.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-06T12:00:00+00:00	68.4%	—	—	—	—	50.0%
2026-10-06T18:00:00+00:00	83.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T00:00:00+00:00	73.5%	—	—	—	—	46.3%
2026-10-07T06:00:00+00:00	75.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T12:00:00+00:00	97.4%	—	—	—	—	51.6%
2026-10-07T18:00:00+00:00	86.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T00:00:00+00:00	87.4%	—	—	—	—	49.5%
2026-10-08T06:00:00+00:00	14.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T12:00:00+00:00	93.6%	—	—	—	—	49.5%
2026-10-08T18:00:00+00:00	10.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T00:00:00+00:00	27.7%	—	—	—	—	42.9%
2026-10-09T06:00:00+00:00	13.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:00	7.7%	—	—	—	—	59.6%
2026-10-09T18:00:00+00:00	53.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:00	35.1%	—	—	—	—	62.1%
2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:00	24.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00	68.7%	—	1.2%	—	—	62.0%
2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00	76.2%	—	9.4%	—	—	—
2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00	58.7%	—	—	—	—	53.8%
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00	60.1%	—	27.1%	—	—	—
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00	72.7%	—	50.0%	—	—	66.4%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00	63.7%	—	78.3%	—	—	—
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00	44.6%	24.4%	75.1%	—	—	61.3%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00	56.9%	—	75.5%	—	—	—
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00	53.5%	26.9%	72.5%	26.9%	—	57.7%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00	64.7%	—	73.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00	59.4%	78.0%	69.0%	76.3%	—	56.6%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00	55.2%	—	91.1%	—	—	—
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00	63.5%	84.0%	92.2%	73.6%	—	53.0%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00	43.8%	—	89.8%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00	55.6%	81.6%	89.6%	33.0%	—	35.9%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00	45.1%	2.1%	88.6%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00	50.8%	64.7%	86.2%	6.9%	—	27.9%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00	55.1%	44.0%	84.3%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00	40.5%	73.8%	70.9%	1.2%	—	32.2%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00	58.9%	70.6%	82.2%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00	46.3%	67.8%	54.6%	42.7%	—	25.9%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00	62.1%	72.4%	48.1%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00	48.0%	73.7%	31.3%	39.4%	—	10.7%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00	57.0%	76.6%	1.1%	—	—	19.0%
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00	67.0%	78.1%	36.9%	52.1%	—	47.9%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00	73.0%	82.4%	61.5%	—	—	61.5%
2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00	77.0%	70.8%	66.9%	74.5%	0.0%	68.9%
2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00	83.9%	72.4%	81.0%	0.1%	—	76.0%
2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00	78.5%	69.0%	80.1%	84.0%	43.0%	75.8%
2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00	80.1%	85.5%	75.6%	84.0%	—	73.7%
2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00	82.6%	82.6%	81.8%	84.1%	0.0%	76.4%
2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00	79.1%	76.2%	80.9%	80.0%	—	66.3%
2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00	81.8%	77.0%	81.8%	74.9%	47.3%	72.7%
2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00	86.8%	88.2%	82.7%	74.7%	—	—
2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00	91.1%	85.4%	87.8%	79.8%	64.2%	79.8%
2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00	88.0%	84.7%	90.1%	74.0%	—	72.8%
2026-10-19T12:00:00+00:00	93.9%	91.1%	94.3%	81.9%	71.0%	76.2%
2026-10-19T18:00:00+00:00	0.0%	98.6%	98.7%	93.2%	—	88.5%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
WeatherNext 2	90%	69.3°F	5.3°F	2026-10-11 18:00	0.0100
IFS HRES	86%	69.2°F	6.3°F	2026-10-12 00:00	0.0210
AIFS Single	70%	65.4°F	5.6°F	2026-10-12 00:00	0.0912
IFS Ensemble	59%	63.6°F	4.9°F	2026-10-11 00:00	0.1689
National Blend	54%	63.0°F	5.5°F	2026-10-12 00:00	0.2153
ICON	52%	62.9°F	9.9°F	2026-10-12 00:00	0.2343

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 63°F · KBWI

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KBWI-20261019-TMAX-GE63
Opened Oct 12 · 07:47 UTC

Original listing: Baltimore high ≥ 63°F · Mon Oct 19

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗