KBWI / Mon Oct 19 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Baltimore, MDHigh ≤ 56°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST2%Oct 16 · 21:52 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

26%

20%

<1%

<1%

<1%

Consensus

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

HRESYES 12.9¢Risks 12.90u

WN2NO 87.1¢Risks 87.10u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

HRES +87.10u · WN2 −87.10u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-16T21:52:50+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	EPS	WN2	HRES	ICON
2026-10-15T07:48:53+00:00	3.2%	7.1%	0.1%	11.9%	1.4%
2026-10-15T08:35:48+00:00	3.2%	7.1%	0.1%	11.9%	1.4%
2026-10-15T09:21:11+00:00	3.2%	7.1%	0.1%	11.9%	1.4%
2026-10-15T10:06:57+00:00	3.2%	7.1%	0.1%	11.9%	1.4%
2026-10-15T10:52:48+00:00	3.2%	7.1%	0.1%	11.9%	1.4%
2026-10-15T11:39:04+00:00	3.2%	7.1%	0.1%	11.9%	1.4%
2026-10-15T12:24:48+00:00	3.2%	10.6%	0.1%	11.9%	1.4%
2026-10-15T13:10:04+00:00	3.2%	10.6%	0.1%	11.9%	1.4%
2026-10-15T13:55:46+00:00	1.2%	10.6%	0.1%	11.9%	1.5%
2026-10-15T14:48:22+00:00	1.2%	10.6%	0.1%	11.9%	1.5%
2026-10-15T23:06:58+00:00	2.3%	8.8%	0.1%	8.7%	2.3%
2026-10-15T23:52:12+00:00	2.3%	8.8%	0.1%	8.7%	2.3%
2026-10-16T00:37:20+00:00	2.3%	8.8%	0.1%	8.7%	2.3%
2026-10-16T01:22:40+00:00	1.0%	8.8%	0.1%	8.7%	2.3%
2026-10-16T02:07:56+00:00	1.0%	8.8%	0.1%	8.7%	2.3%
2026-10-16T02:53:26+00:00	1.0%	8.8%	0.1%	8.7%	2.3%
2026-10-16T03:38:38+00:00	1.0%	8.8%	0.1%	8.7%	2.3%
2026-10-16T13:27:57+00:00	0.9%	19.5%	0.2%	25.8%	1.0%
2026-10-16T14:19:39+00:00	0.9%	19.6%	0.2%	25.8%	1.0%
2026-10-16T15:05:09+00:00	0.9%	19.6%	0.2%	25.8%	1.0%
2026-10-16T15:50:53+00:00	0.9%	19.5%	0.2%	25.8%	1.0%
2026-10-16T16:36:04+00:00	0.9%	19.5%	0.2%	25.8%	1.0%
2026-10-16T17:21:16+00:00	0.9%	19.5%	0.0%	25.8%	1.0%
2026-10-16T18:06:35+00:00	0.9%	19.5%	0.0%	25.8%	1.0%
2026-10-16T18:51:41+00:00	0.9%	19.5%	0.0%	25.8%	1.0%
2026-10-16T19:36:50+00:00	0.5%	19.5%	0.0%	25.8%	0.7%
2026-10-16T20:22:21+00:00	0.5%	19.5%	0.0%	25.8%	0.7%
2026-10-16T21:07:44+00:00	0.5%	19.5%	0.0%	25.8%	0.7%
2026-10-16T21:52:50+00:00	0.5%	19.5%	0.0%	25.8%	0.7%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
IFS HRES	26%	59.4°F	4.5°F	2026-10-16 00:00	Pending
National Blend	22%	60.0°F	4.4°F	2026-10-16 06:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	20%	60.4°F	4.5°F	2026-10-16 00:00	Pending
NWS forecast	18%	60.0°F	3.9°F	2026-10-16 14:00	Pending
ICON	<1%	66.2°F	4.0°F	2026-10-16 12:00	Pending
AIFS Single	<1%	67.6°F	4.3°F	2026-10-16 12:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	<1%	68.5°F	3.4°F	2026-10-16 06:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≤ 56°F · KBWI

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KBWI-20261019-TMAX-LE56
Opened Oct 15 · 07:48 UTC

Original listing: Baltimore stays cold-for-here: high ≤ 56°F · Mon Oct 19

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗