KBWI / Mon Oct 19 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Baltimore, MDHigh ≤ 56°F

FINAL OUTCOMENOOct 16 · 21:52 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

26%

20%

<1%

<1%

<1%

Consensus

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

HRESYES 12.9¢Risks 12.90u

WN2NO 87.1¢Risks 87.10u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

HRES +87.10u · WN2 −87.10u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-19T18:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-10-04T06:00:00+00:00	81.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-04T12:00:00+00:00	33.0%	—	—	—	—	40.5%
2026-10-04T18:00:00+00:00	33.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-05T00:00:00+00:00	6.4%	—	—	—	—	12.3%
2026-10-05T06:00:00+00:00	4.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-05T12:00:00+00:00	20.1%	—	—	—	—	15.6%
2026-10-05T18:00:00+00:00	68.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-06T00:00:00+00:00	17.9%	—	—	—	—	12.0%
2026-10-06T06:00:00+00:00	68.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-06T12:00:00+00:00	10.0%	—	—	—	—	21.2%
2026-10-06T18:00:00+00:00	3.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T00:00:00+00:00	7.7%	—	—	—	—	24.0%
2026-10-07T06:00:00+00:00	6.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T12:00:00+00:00	0.3%	—	—	—	—	20.1%
2026-10-07T18:00:00+00:00	3.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T00:00:00+00:00	2.6%	—	—	—	—	21.6%
2026-10-08T06:00:00+00:00	61.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T12:00:00+00:00	1.0%	—	—	—	—	21.5%
2026-10-08T18:00:00+00:00	67.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T00:00:00+00:00	40.7%	—	—	—	—	25.8%
2026-10-09T06:00:00+00:00	61.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:00	71.5%	—	—	—	—	13.7%
2026-10-09T18:00:00+00:00	17.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:00	30.9%	—	—	—	—	11.7%
2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:00	42.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00	8.1%	—	91.2%	—	—	11.2%
2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00	5.1%	—	65.1%	—	—	—
2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00	12.2%	—	—	—	—	14.9%
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00	11.2%	—	36.2%	—	—	—
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00	5.7%	—	16.4%	—	—	8.0%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00	8.9%	—	3.8%	—	—	—
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00	18.9%	37.4%	4.5%	—	—	9.6%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00	11.3%	—	4.2%	—	—	—
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00	12.6%	33.0%	4.9%	33.0%	—	10.5%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00	7.3%	—	4.5%	—	—	—
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00	9.0%	3.1%	5.5%	3.5%	—	10.3%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00	10.5%	—	0.7%	—	—	—
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00	6.8%	1.6%	0.5%	3.8%	—	11.0%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00	15.4%	—	0.7%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00	9.0%	1.8%	0.7%	22.4%	—	20.1%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00	13.5%	78.8%	0.8%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00	10.1%	5.1%	0.9%	59.1%	—	25.1%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00	7.8%	12.8%	1.1%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00	14.1%	2.5%	3.1%	82.2%	—	19.6%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00	5.7%	2.9%	1.1%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00	9.8%	3.2%	6.6%	11.5%	—	23.0%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00	4.2%	2.2%	8.4%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00	7.9%	1.8%	16.5%	11.6%	—	41.3%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00	4.7%	1.3%	78.9%	—	—	26.5%
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00	2.4%	1.0%	11.3%	5.5%	—	6.7%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00	1.4%	0.6%	3.0%	—	—	3.0%
2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00	0.9%	1.4%	1.9%	1.1%	98.7%	1.6%
2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00	0.4%	1.1%	0.5%	94.3%	—	0.8%
2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00	0.5%	1.2%	0.5%	0.3%	5.7%	0.7%
2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00	0.4%	0.2%	0.6%	0.2%	—	0.7%
2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00	0.2%	0.2%	0.3%	0.2%	99.6%	0.5%
2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00	0.3%	0.4%	0.2%	0.3%	—	0.9%
2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00	0.2%	0.3%	0.2%	0.4%	2.6%	0.4%
2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00	0.1%	0.1%	0.1%	0.3%	—	—
2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00	0.0%	0.1%	0.0%	0.1%	0.5%	0.1%
2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00	0.0%	0.1%	0.0%	0.2%	—	0.2%
2026-10-19T12:00:00+00:00	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.1%	0.2%	0.1%
2026-10-19T18:00:00+00:00	93.2%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	—	0.0%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
IFS HRES	26%	59.4°F	4.5°F	2026-10-16 00:00	0.0666
National Blend	22%	60.0°F	4.4°F	2026-10-16 06:00	0.0462
IFS Ensemble	20%	60.4°F	4.5°F	2026-10-16 00:00	0.0380
NWS forecast	18%	60.0°F	3.9°F	2026-10-16 14:00	0.0342
ICON	<1%	66.2°F	4.0°F	2026-10-16 12:00	0.0000
AIFS Single	<1%	67.6°F	4.3°F	2026-10-16 12:00	0.0000
WeatherNext 2	<1%	68.5°F	3.4°F	2026-10-16 06:00	0.0000

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≤ 56°F · KBWI

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KBWI-20261019-TMAX-LE56
Opened Oct 15 · 07:48 UTC

Original listing: Baltimore stays cold-for-here: high ≤ 56°F · Mon Oct 19

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗