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KBWI / Tue Oct 20 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Baltimore, MDHigh ≥ 71°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST48%Oct 20 · 10:07 UTC
THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%
AIFS
85%
WN2
80%
ICON
31%
HRES
26%
EPS
24%
Consensus
48%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED
AIFSYES 54.5¢Risks 54.50u
VS
EPSNO 45.5¢Risks 45.50u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

AIFS +45.50u · EPS −45.50u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

RecordedReconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

0%25%50%75%100%AIFS Single: 78.5% · 2026-10-20T04:51:08+00:00AIFS Single: 78.5% · 2026-10-20T05:36:25+00:00AIFS Single: 78.5% · 2026-10-20T06:21:38+00:00AIFS Single: 78.5% · 2026-10-20T07:06:45+00:00AIFS Single: 85.1% · 2026-10-20T07:51:51+00:00AIFS Single: 85.1% · 2026-10-20T08:37:04+00:00AIFS Single: 85.1% · 2026-10-20T09:22:15+00:00AIFS Single: 85.1% · 2026-10-20T10:07:44+00:00IFS Ensemble: 23.9% · 2026-10-20T04:51:08+00:00IFS Ensemble: 23.9% · 2026-10-20T05:36:25+00:00IFS Ensemble: 23.9% · 2026-10-20T06:21:38+00:00IFS Ensemble: 23.9% · 2026-10-20T07:06:45+00:00IFS Ensemble: 23.9% · 2026-10-20T07:51:51+00:00IFS Ensemble: 23.9% · 2026-10-20T08:37:04+00:00IFS Ensemble: 23.9% · 2026-10-20T09:22:15+00:00IFS Ensemble: 23.9% · 2026-10-20T10:07:44+00:00WeatherNext 2: 80.5% · 2026-10-20T04:51:08+00:00WeatherNext 2: 80.5% · 2026-10-20T05:36:25+00:00WeatherNext 2: 80.5% · 2026-10-20T06:21:38+00:00WeatherNext 2: 80.5% · 2026-10-20T07:06:45+00:00WeatherNext 2: 80.5% · 2026-10-20T07:51:51+00:00WeatherNext 2: 80.5% · 2026-10-20T08:37:04+00:00WeatherNext 2: 80.5% · 2026-10-20T09:22:15+00:00WeatherNext 2: 80.5% · 2026-10-20T10:07:44+00:00IFS HRES: 25.9% · 2026-10-20T04:51:08+00:00IFS HRES: 25.9% · 2026-10-20T05:36:25+00:00IFS HRES: 25.9% · 2026-10-20T06:21:38+00:00IFS HRES: 25.9% · 2026-10-20T07:06:45+00:00IFS HRES: 25.9% · 2026-10-20T07:51:51+00:00IFS HRES: 25.9% · 2026-10-20T08:37:04+00:00IFS HRES: 25.9% · 2026-10-20T09:22:15+00:00IFS HRES: 25.9% · 2026-10-20T10:07:44+00:00ICON: 23.1% · 2026-10-20T04:51:08+00:00ICON: 23.1% · 2026-10-20T05:36:25+00:00ICON: 23.1% · 2026-10-20T06:21:38+00:00ICON: 23.1% · 2026-10-20T07:06:45+00:00ICON: 31.4% · 2026-10-20T07:51:51+00:00ICON: 31.4% · 2026-10-20T08:37:04+00:00ICON: 31.4% · 2026-10-20T09:22:15+00:00ICON: 31.4% · 2026-10-20T10:07:44+00:0010-20 04:5110-20 07:5110-20 10:07
AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON
2026-10-20T10:07:44+00:00 · UTC
View the forecast data
UTCAIFSEPSWN2HRESICON
2026-10-20T04:51:08+00:0078.5%23.9%80.5%25.9%23.1%
2026-10-20T05:36:25+00:0078.5%23.9%80.5%25.9%23.1%
2026-10-20T06:21:38+00:0078.5%23.9%80.5%25.9%23.1%
2026-10-20T07:06:45+00:0078.5%23.9%80.5%25.9%23.1%
2026-10-20T07:51:51+00:0085.1%23.9%80.5%25.9%31.4%
2026-10-20T08:37:04+00:0085.1%23.9%80.5%25.9%31.4%
2026-10-20T09:22:15+00:0085.1%23.9%80.5%25.9%31.4%
2026-10-20T10:07:44+00:0085.1%23.9%80.5%25.9%31.4%
THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODELYESMEANSPREAD σINITIALIZATION UTCBRIER ↓
AIFS Single85%73.7°F3.1°F2026-10-20 00:00Pending
WeatherNext 280%73.0°F2.9°F2026-10-19 18:00Pending
NWS forecast59%71.0°F2.2°F2026-10-20 03:00Pending
National Blend33%70.0°F1.1°F2026-10-20 00:00Pending
ICON31%68.8°F3.5°F2026-10-20 00:00Pending
IFS HRES26%68.1°F3.7°F2026-10-19 12:00Pending
IFS Ensemble24%68.2°F3.2°F2026-10-19 00:00Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 71°F · KBWI

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KBWI-20261020-TMAX-GE71
Opened Oct 20 · 04:51 UTC

Original listing: Baltimore high ≥ 71°F · Tue Oct 20

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗