KBWI / Tue Oct 20 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Baltimore, MDHigh ≥ 71°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST48%Oct 20 · 10:07 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

85%

80%

31%

26%

24%

Consensus

48%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

AIFSYES 54.5¢Risks 54.50u

EPSNO 45.5¢Risks 45.50u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

AIFS +45.50u · EPS −45.50u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-10-05T06:00:00+00:00	29.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-05T12:00:00+00:00	0.4%	—	—	—	—	2.5%
2026-10-05T18:00:00+00:00	15.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-06T00:00:00+00:00	20.4%	—	—	—	—	30.1%
2026-10-06T06:00:00+00:00	39.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-06T12:00:00+00:00	42.6%	—	—	—	—	21.6%
2026-10-06T18:00:00+00:00	73.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T00:00:00+00:00	5.2%	—	—	—	—	19.3%
2026-10-07T06:00:00+00:00	60.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T12:00:00+00:00	39.0%	—	—	—	—	19.7%
2026-10-07T18:00:00+00:00	68.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T00:00:00+00:00	80.3%	—	—	—	—	16.9%
2026-10-08T06:00:00+00:00	15.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T12:00:00+00:00	53.7%	—	—	—	—	20.8%
2026-10-08T18:00:00+00:00	7.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T00:00:00+00:00	14.3%	—	—	—	—	23.2%
2026-10-09T06:00:00+00:00	5.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:00	5.4%	—	—	—	—	28.3%
2026-10-09T18:00:00+00:00	46.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:00	36.5%	—	—	—	—	36.0%
2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:00	29.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00	66.5%	—	—	—	—	39.9%
2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00	56.3%	—	0.1%	—	—	—
2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00	55.3%	—	—	—	—	31.4%
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00	48.2%	—	26.5%	—	—	—
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00	65.4%	—	—	—	—	31.9%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00	56.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00	20.6%	—	38.2%	—	—	31.8%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00	46.8%	—	53.8%	—	—	—
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00	46.1%	—	46.1%	—	—	27.3%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00	56.6%	—	29.2%	—	—	—
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00	43.9%	3.6%	54.0%	—	—	29.4%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00	38.5%	—	69.8%	—	—	—
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00	51.4%	54.9%	53.5%	3.8%	—	29.8%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00	22.5%	—	59.9%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00	24.9%	52.2%	44.2%	14.0%	—	17.5%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00	18.4%	—	47.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00	49.2%	60.6%	55.3%	3.9%	—	11.8%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00	47.7%	—	55.5%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00	20.1%	46.8%	38.2%	23.0%	—	14.0%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00	35.6%	2.9%	49.2%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00	28.6%	59.1%	36.1%	16.2%	—	11.2%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00	50.0%	39.8%	41.5%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00	15.6%	54.4%	35.4%	19.0%	—	3.8%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00	53.6%	45.5%	31.8%	—	—	11.6%
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00	59.1%	47.2%	42.7%	48.2%	—	22.3%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00	59.4%	37.0%	40.6%	—	—	23.1%
2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00	55.8%	35.7%	38.5%	28.7%	—	24.0%
2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00	53.0%	27.4%	40.1%	—	—	18.3%
2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00	51.0%	21.9%	43.9%	21.2%	0.0%	15.1%
2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00	52.1%	23.6%	43.7%	—	—	13.8%
2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00	52.2%	33.1%	43.5%	27.3%	—	13.1%
2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00	46.6%	27.6%	35.7%	0.0%	—	11.8%
2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00	45.4%	28.0%	38.5%	17.5%	0.0%	11.6%
2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00	46.4%	34.7%	32.5%	19.1%	—	—
2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00	43.8%	37.7%	37.7%	20.8%	12.4%	13.7%
2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00	39.8%	30.2%	34.9%	15.0%	—	11.5%
2026-10-19T12:00:00+00:00	36.8%	31.9%	36.8%	11.3%	8.9%	9.5%
2026-10-19T18:00:00+00:00	47.2%	43.1%	39.0%	17.3%	—	11.8%
2026-10-20T00:00:00+00:00	47.1%	57.2%	45.7%	19.1%	17.2%	13.0%
2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00	41.0%	—	57.5%	16.2%	—	7.0%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
AIFS Single	85%	73.7°F	3.1°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	80%	73.0°F	2.9°F	2026-10-19 18:00	Pending
NWS forecast	59%	71.0°F	2.2°F	2026-10-20 03:00	Pending
National Blend	33%	70.0°F	1.1°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
ICON	31%	68.8°F	3.5°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
IFS HRES	26%	68.1°F	3.7°F	2026-10-19 12:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	24%	68.2°F	3.2°F	2026-10-19 00:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 71°F · KBWI

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KBWI-20261020-TMAX-GE71
Opened Oct 20 · 04:51 UTC

Original listing: Baltimore high ≥ 71°F · Tue Oct 20

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗