KBWI / Wed Oct 21 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Baltimore, MDHigh ≥ 68°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST48%Oct 16 · 14:19 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

80%

72%

48%

33%

28%

Consensus

48%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

ICONYES 54.0¢Risks 54.05u

EPSNO 46.0¢Risks 45.95u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

ICON +45.95u · EPS −45.95u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-16T14:19:39+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	EPS	WN2	HRES	ICON
2026-10-14T10:32:07+00:00	84.5%	66.9%	94.0%	72.0%	48.8%
2026-10-14T11:20:31+00:00	84.5%	50.0%	87.8%	72.0%	48.8%
2026-10-14T12:06:10+00:00	84.5%	50.0%	87.8%	72.0%	48.8%
2026-10-14T12:51:18+00:00	84.5%	50.0%	87.8%	72.0%	48.8%
2026-10-14T13:36:25+00:00	84.5%	50.0%	87.8%	72.0%	48.8%
2026-10-14T14:26:47+00:00	84.5%	50.0%	87.7%	72.0%	49.2%
2026-10-14T15:12:00+00:00	84.5%	53.7%	87.7%	72.0%	49.2%
2026-10-14T15:57:51+00:00	84.5%	53.7%	87.7%	72.0%	49.2%
2026-10-14T16:43:01+00:00	84.5%	53.7%	87.7%	72.0%	49.2%
2026-10-14T17:28:10+00:00	84.5%	53.7%	83.6%	72.0%	49.2%
2026-10-14T18:13:18+00:00	84.5%	53.7%	83.6%	72.0%	49.2%
2026-10-14T18:58:25+00:00	84.5%	53.7%	83.6%	72.0%	49.2%
2026-10-14T19:43:31+00:00	70.3%	53.7%	83.6%	32.4%	70.0%
2026-10-14T20:28:47+00:00	70.3%	53.7%	83.6%	32.4%	70.0%
2026-10-14T21:13:54+00:00	70.3%	53.7%	83.6%	32.4%	70.0%
2026-10-14T21:59:00+00:00	70.3%	53.7%	83.6%	32.4%	70.0%
2026-10-14T22:44:07+00:00	70.3%	53.7%	83.6%	32.4%	70.0%
2026-10-14T23:29:16+00:00	70.3%	53.7%	81.0%	32.4%	70.0%
2026-10-15T00:14:38+00:00	70.3%	53.7%	81.0%	32.4%	70.0%
2026-10-15T01:01:07+00:00	70.3%	53.7%	81.0%	32.4%	70.0%
2026-10-15T01:46:15+00:00	69.1%	53.7%	81.0%	32.4%	70.0%
2026-10-15T02:31:27+00:00	69.1%	53.7%	81.0%	32.4%	70.0%
2026-10-15T03:16:33+00:00	69.1%	53.7%	81.0%	32.4%	70.0%
2026-10-15T04:01:47+00:00	69.1%	53.7%	81.0%	32.4%	70.0%
2026-10-15T04:47:49+00:00	69.1%	53.7%	81.0%	32.4%	70.0%
2026-10-15T05:33:15+00:00	69.1%	53.7%	83.6%	32.4%	70.0%
2026-10-15T06:18:25+00:00	69.1%	53.7%	83.6%	32.4%	70.0%
2026-10-15T07:03:33+00:00	69.1%	53.7%	83.6%	32.4%	70.0%
2026-10-15T07:48:54+00:00	58.1%	53.7%	83.6%	48.2%	55.1%
2026-10-15T08:35:48+00:00	58.1%	53.7%	83.6%	48.2%	55.1%
2026-10-15T09:21:11+00:00	58.1%	53.7%	83.6%	48.2%	55.1%
2026-10-15T10:06:57+00:00	58.1%	53.7%	83.6%	48.2%	55.1%
2026-10-15T10:52:48+00:00	58.1%	53.7%	83.6%	48.2%	55.1%
2026-10-15T11:39:04+00:00	58.1%	53.7%	83.8%	48.2%	55.1%
2026-10-15T12:24:48+00:00	58.1%	44.2%	83.8%	48.2%	55.1%
2026-10-15T13:10:04+00:00	58.1%	44.2%	83.8%	48.2%	55.1%
2026-10-15T13:55:46+00:00	84.6%	44.2%	83.8%	48.2%	55.0%
2026-10-15T14:48:22+00:00	84.6%	44.2%	83.8%	48.2%	55.0%
2026-10-16T04:23:51+00:00	55.2%	48.8%	85.8%	55.4%	72.7%
2026-10-16T05:10:22+00:00	55.2%	48.8%	78.0%	55.4%	72.7%
2026-10-16T05:55:47+00:00	55.2%	48.8%	78.0%	55.4%	72.7%
2026-10-16T06:41:01+00:00	55.2%	48.8%	78.0%	55.4%	72.7%
2026-10-16T07:26:11+00:00	15.2%	48.8%	78.0%	55.4%	79.8%
2026-10-16T08:11:21+00:00	15.2%	48.8%	78.0%	55.4%	79.8%
2026-10-16T08:56:31+00:00	15.2%	48.8%	78.0%	55.4%	79.8%
2026-10-16T09:41:40+00:00	15.2%	48.8%	78.0%	55.4%	79.8%
2026-10-16T10:26:46+00:00	15.2%	48.8%	78.0%	55.4%	79.8%
2026-10-16T11:12:03+00:00	15.2%	28.4%	72.0%	55.4%	79.8%
2026-10-16T11:57:35+00:00	15.2%	28.4%	72.0%	55.4%	79.8%
2026-10-16T12:42:45+00:00	15.2%	28.4%	72.0%	55.4%	79.8%
2026-10-16T13:27:57+00:00	47.6%	28.4%	72.0%	32.6%	79.8%
2026-10-16T14:19:39+00:00	47.6%	28.4%	72.0%	32.6%	79.7%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
ICON	80%	72.5°F	6.0°F	2026-10-16 00:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	72%	69.9°F	4.1°F	2026-10-16 00:00	Pending
NWS forecast	54%	68.0°F	5.2°F	2026-10-16 02:00	Pending
AIFS Single	48%	67.2°F	5.0°F	2026-10-16 06:00	Pending
IFS HRES	33%	64.9°F	5.8°F	2026-10-16 00:00	Pending
National Blend	33%	66.0°F	3.3°F	2026-10-16 06:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	28%	65.1°F	4.2°F	2026-10-16 00:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 68°F · KBWI

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KBWI-20261021-TMAX-GE68
Opened Oct 14 · 10:32 UTC

Original listing: Baltimore high ≥ 68°F · Wed Oct 21

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗