KBWI / Wed Oct 21 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Baltimore, MDHigh ≥ 68°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST48%Oct 16 · 14:19 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

80%

72%

48%

33%

28%

Consensus

48%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

ICONYES 54.0¢Risks 54.05u

EPSNO 46.0¢Risks 45.95u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

ICON +45.95u · EPS −45.95u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-10-06T06:00:00+00:00	1.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-06T12:00:00+00:00	4.7%	—	—	—	—	5.8%
2026-10-06T18:00:00+00:00	43.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T00:00:00+00:00	5.8%	—	—	—	—	34.9%
2026-10-07T06:00:00+00:00	0.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T12:00:00+00:00	43.1%	—	—	—	—	31.6%
2026-10-07T18:00:00+00:00	30.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T00:00:00+00:00	76.0%	—	—	—	—	31.6%
2026-10-08T06:00:00+00:00	41.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T12:00:00+00:00	29.2%	—	—	—	—	33.0%
2026-10-08T18:00:00+00:00	32.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T00:00:00+00:00	39.5%	—	—	—	—	38.0%
2026-10-09T06:00:00+00:00	24.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:00	23.6%	—	—	—	—	45.8%
2026-10-09T18:00:00+00:00	64.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:00	70.3%	—	—	—	—	53.2%
2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:00	54.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00	55.3%	—	—	—	—	59.5%
2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00	39.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00	53.8%	—	—	—	—	50.5%
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00	52.8%	—	29.7%	—	—	—
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00	52.3%	—	—	—	—	48.3%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00	18.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00	43.6%	—	25.9%	—	—	41.8%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00	75.0%	—	70.5%	—	—	—
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00	77.2%	—	—	—	—	38.6%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00	83.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00	71.5%	—	27.5%	—	—	45.0%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00	72.9%	—	65.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00	80.7%	—	69.9%	—	—	54.5%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00	58.6%	—	83.3%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00	63.9%	20.8%	73.5%	—	—	39.3%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00	64.2%	—	71.6%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00	44.4%	54.2%	54.9%	9.6%	—	25.7%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00	42.9%	—	64.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00	29.7%	31.0%	42.7%	29.1%	—	35.7%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00	63.9%	—	63.9%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00	7.3%	55.3%	43.2%	66.3%	—	35.8%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00	25.3%	—	22.9%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00	3.0%	67.7%	34.5%	57.1%	—	12.7%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00	18.9%	11.0%	14.8%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00	45.0%	53.3%	18.4%	41.7%	—	19.5%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00	43.2%	31.1%	28.8%	—	—	0.4%
2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00	32.2%	30.7%	27.7%	37.1%	—	16.1%
2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00	38.5%	27.1%	41.1%	—	—	12.1%
2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00	31.4%	13.4%	39.1%	23.7%	—	11.5%
2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00	34.3%	21.0%	30.9%	—	—	9.2%
2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00	28.7%	31.3%	37.6%	22.5%	—	8.6%
2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00	29.9%	11.9%	29.9%	—	—	10.0%
2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00	21.9%	30.3%	27.6%	13.4%	—	7.4%
2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00	27.1%	33.5%	16.9%	—	—	—
2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00	32.1%	41.3%	19.0%	18.3%	—	8.1%
2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00	26.7%	32.6%	19.8%	0.1%	—	6.3%
2026-10-19T12:00:00+00:00	27.0%	28.0%	20.7%	10.0%	0.1%	6.1%
2026-10-19T18:00:00+00:00	31.4%	34.7%	20.8%	9.7%	—	7.4%
2026-10-20T00:00:00+00:00	30.9%	43.8%	22.7%	17.4%	10.0%	8.5%
2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00	30.2%	—	26.9%	15.0%	—	7.2%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
ICON	80%	72.5°F	6.0°F	2026-10-16 00:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	72%	69.9°F	4.1°F	2026-10-16 00:00	Pending
NWS forecast	54%	68.0°F	5.2°F	2026-10-16 02:00	Pending
AIFS Single	48%	67.2°F	5.0°F	2026-10-16 06:00	Pending
IFS HRES	33%	64.9°F	5.8°F	2026-10-16 00:00	Pending
National Blend	33%	66.0°F	3.3°F	2026-10-16 06:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	28%	65.1°F	4.2°F	2026-10-16 00:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 68°F · KBWI

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KBWI-20261021-TMAX-GE68
Opened Oct 14 · 10:32 UTC

Original listing: Baltimore high ≥ 68°F · Wed Oct 21

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗