KBWI / Thu Oct 22 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Baltimore, MDHigh ≥ 64°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST80%Oct 18 · 03:28 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

96%

94%

74%

67%

63%

Consensus

80%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

AIFSYES 79.3¢Risks 79.35u

ICONNO 20.7¢Risks 20.65u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

AIFS +20.65u · ICON −20.65u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-18T03:28:26+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	EPS	WN2	HRES	ICON
2026-10-15T11:39:04+00:00	78.3%	88.3%	87.7%	51.3%	58.4%
2026-10-15T12:24:48+00:00	78.3%	82.3%	87.7%	51.3%	58.4%
2026-10-15T13:10:04+00:00	78.3%	82.3%	87.7%	51.3%	58.4%
2026-10-15T13:55:46+00:00	88.4%	82.3%	87.3%	51.2%	58.4%
2026-10-15T14:48:22+00:00	88.4%	82.3%	87.3%	51.2%	58.4%
2026-10-15T15:33:39+00:00	88.4%	84.1%	87.3%	51.2%	58.4%
2026-10-15T16:19:53+00:00	88.4%	84.1%	87.3%	51.2%	58.4%
2026-10-15T17:05:19+00:00	88.4%	84.1%	90.0%	51.2%	58.4%
2026-10-15T17:50:33+00:00	88.4%	84.1%	90.0%	51.2%	58.4%
2026-10-15T18:35:52+00:00	88.4%	84.1%	90.0%	51.2%	58.4%
2026-10-15T19:21:05+00:00	88.4%	84.1%	90.0%	51.2%	58.4%
2026-10-15T20:06:13+00:00	47.9%	84.1%	90.0%	31.4%	86.4%
2026-10-15T20:51:26+00:00	47.9%	84.1%	90.0%	31.4%	86.4%
2026-10-15T21:36:40+00:00	47.9%	84.1%	90.0%	31.4%	86.4%
2026-10-15T22:21:47+00:00	47.9%	84.1%	90.0%	31.4%	86.4%
2026-10-15T23:06:58+00:00	47.9%	84.1%	81.7%	31.4%	86.4%
2026-10-15T23:52:12+00:00	47.9%	84.1%	81.7%	31.5%	86.4%
2026-10-16T00:37:20+00:00	47.9%	84.1%	81.7%	31.5%	86.4%
2026-10-16T01:22:40+00:00	52.8%	84.1%	81.7%	31.5%	86.4%
2026-10-16T02:07:56+00:00	52.8%	84.1%	81.7%	31.5%	86.4%
2026-10-16T02:53:26+00:00	52.8%	84.1%	81.7%	31.5%	86.4%
2026-10-16T03:38:38+00:00	52.8%	84.1%	81.7%	31.5%	86.4%
2026-10-16T15:05:09+00:00	41.9%	53.0%	84.8%	38.1%	90.4%
2026-10-16T15:50:53+00:00	41.9%	53.0%	84.8%	38.1%	90.4%
2026-10-16T16:36:04+00:00	41.9%	53.0%	84.8%	38.1%	90.4%
2026-10-16T17:21:16+00:00	41.9%	53.0%	92.1%	38.1%	90.4%
2026-10-16T18:06:35+00:00	41.9%	53.0%	92.1%	38.1%	90.4%
2026-10-16T18:51:41+00:00	41.9%	53.0%	92.1%	38.1%	90.4%
2026-10-16T19:36:50+00:00	48.5%	53.0%	92.1%	38.1%	66.8%
2026-10-16T20:22:21+00:00	48.5%	53.0%	92.1%	38.1%	66.8%
2026-10-16T21:07:44+00:00	48.5%	53.0%	92.1%	38.1%	66.8%
2026-10-16T21:52:50+00:00	48.5%	53.0%	92.1%	38.1%	66.8%
2026-10-16T22:37:58+00:00	48.5%	53.0%	92.1%	67.0%	66.8%
2026-10-16T23:23:15+00:00	48.5%	53.0%	97.8%	67.0%	66.8%
2026-10-17T00:08:46+00:00	48.5%	53.0%	97.8%	67.0%	66.8%
2026-10-17T00:54:54+00:00	48.5%	53.0%	97.8%	67.0%	66.8%
2026-10-17T01:40:03+00:00	58.1%	53.0%	97.8%	67.0%	66.8%
2026-10-17T02:25:17+00:00	58.1%	53.0%	97.8%	67.0%	66.8%
2026-10-17T03:10:26+00:00	58.1%	53.0%	97.8%	67.0%	66.8%
2026-10-17T03:55:35+00:00	58.1%	53.0%	97.8%	67.0%	66.8%
2026-10-17T15:24:25+00:00	95.7%	74.2%	98.7%	62.9%	73.8%
2026-10-17T16:10:29+00:00	95.7%	74.2%	98.7%	62.9%	73.8%
2026-10-17T16:55:37+00:00	95.7%	74.2%	97.4%	62.9%	73.8%
2026-10-17T17:40:46+00:00	95.7%	74.2%	97.4%	62.9%	73.8%
2026-10-17T18:25:54+00:00	95.7%	74.2%	97.4%	62.9%	73.8%
2026-10-17T19:11:01+00:00	95.7%	74.2%	97.4%	62.9%	73.8%
2026-10-17T19:56:08+00:00	95.7%	74.2%	97.4%	67.3%	62.8%
2026-10-17T20:41:25+00:00	95.7%	74.2%	97.4%	67.3%	62.8%
2026-10-17T21:26:35+00:00	95.7%	74.2%	97.4%	67.3%	62.8%
2026-10-17T22:11:51+00:00	95.7%	74.2%	97.4%	67.3%	62.8%
2026-10-17T22:56:58+00:00	95.7%	74.2%	94.3%	67.3%	62.8%
2026-10-17T23:42:09+00:00	95.7%	74.2%	94.3%	67.3%	62.8%
2026-10-18T00:27:21+00:00	95.7%	74.2%	94.3%	67.3%	62.8%
2026-10-18T01:12:37+00:00	95.7%	74.2%	94.3%	67.3%	62.8%
2026-10-18T01:58:06+00:00	95.7%	74.2%	94.3%	67.3%	62.8%
2026-10-18T02:43:18+00:00	95.9%	74.2%	94.3%	67.3%	62.8%
2026-10-18T03:28:26+00:00	95.9%	74.2%	94.3%	67.3%	62.8%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
AIFS Single	96%	72.1°F	5.0°F	2026-10-17 18:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	94%	70.0°F	4.1°F	2026-10-17 12:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	74%	65.9°F	3.7°F	2026-10-17 00:00	Pending
IFS HRES	67%	66.1°F	5.8°F	2026-10-17 12:00	Pending
ICON	63%	65.5°F	6.1°F	2026-10-17 12:00	Pending
National Blend	55%	64.0°F	4.4°F	2026-10-17 06:00	Pending
NWS forecast	54%	64.0°F	5.2°F	2026-10-17 14:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 64°F · KBWI

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KBWI-20261022-TMAX-GE64
Opened Oct 15 · 11:39 UTC

Original listing: Baltimore high ≥ 64°F · Thu Oct 22

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗