KBWI / Thu Oct 22 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Baltimore, MDHigh ≥ 64°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST80%Oct 18 · 03:28 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

96%

94%

74%

67%

63%

Consensus

80%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

AIFSYES 79.3¢Risks 79.35u

ICONNO 20.7¢Risks 20.65u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

AIFS +20.65u · ICON −20.65u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-10-07T06:00:00+00:00	0.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T12:00:00+00:00	2.1%	—	—	—	—	15.2%
2026-10-07T18:00:00+00:00	48.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T00:00:00+00:00	53.2%	—	—	—	—	47.3%
2026-10-08T06:00:00+00:00	85.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T12:00:00+00:00	62.1%	—	—	—	—	56.4%
2026-10-08T18:00:00+00:00	66.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T00:00:00+00:00	78.0%	—	—	—	—	56.9%
2026-10-09T06:00:00+00:00	60.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:00	70.3%	—	—	—	—	68.9%
2026-10-09T18:00:00+00:00	81.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:00	87.2%	—	—	—	—	65.5%
2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:00	81.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00	47.9%	—	—	—	—	75.2%
2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00	45.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00	50.5%	—	—	—	—	72.6%
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00	50.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00	51.1%	—	—	—	—	69.9%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00	20.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00	56.0%	—	—	—	—	71.4%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00	78.4%	—	66.3%	—	—	—
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00	73.0%	—	—	—	—	62.3%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00	93.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00	89.4%	—	—	—	—	61.0%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00	81.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00	89.7%	—	—	—	—	69.8%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00	92.0%	—	94.3%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00	90.7%	—	94.4%	—	—	65.9%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00	92.5%	—	94.9%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00	41.6%	—	84.4%	—	—	48.0%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00	61.8%	—	75.8%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00	52.7%	33.6%	55.4%	—	—	52.0%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00	71.6%	—	68.6%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00	20.9%	86.7%	50.7%	54.2%	—	47.2%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00	24.2%	—	34.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00	27.9%	84.8%	22.1%	50.0%	—	27.9%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00	15.6%	—	22.1%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00	20.0%	45.4%	22.8%	76.1%	—	40.2%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00	27.2%	—	39.2%	—	—	—
2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00	70.5%	59.5%	73.2%	80.5%	—	45.2%
2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00	84.7%	22.4%	80.5%	—	—	43.5%
2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00	84.8%	44.2%	76.8%	65.5%	—	54.2%
2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00	85.8%	58.5%	79.9%	—	—	56.8%
2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00	87.8%	84.9%	81.0%	62.9%	—	57.0%
2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00	87.5%	79.1%	87.5%	—	—	53.6%
2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00	86.7%	79.7%	81.6%	49.1%	—	54.6%
2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00	87.3%	73.2%	76.9%	—	—	—
2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00	83.5%	79.7%	80.3%	55.8%	—	61.5%
2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00	84.8%	81.7%	79.6%	—	—	4.4%
2026-10-19T12:00:00+00:00	85.5%	72.4%	83.0%	34.9%	—	59.2%
2026-10-19T18:00:00+00:00	86.2%	86.2%	86.8%	—	—	62.5%
2026-10-20T00:00:00+00:00	86.9%	86.9%	87.5%	62.9%	46.7%	65.9%
2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00	87.1%	—	87.1%	0.2%	—	63.3%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
AIFS Single	96%	72.1°F	5.0°F	2026-10-17 18:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	94%	70.0°F	4.1°F	2026-10-17 12:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	74%	65.9°F	3.7°F	2026-10-17 00:00	Pending
IFS HRES	67%	66.1°F	5.8°F	2026-10-17 12:00	Pending
ICON	63%	65.5°F	6.1°F	2026-10-17 12:00	Pending
National Blend	55%	64.0°F	4.4°F	2026-10-17 06:00	Pending
NWS forecast	54%	64.0°F	5.2°F	2026-10-17 14:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 64°F · KBWI

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KBWI-20261022-TMAX-GE64
Opened Oct 15 · 11:39 UTC

Original listing: Baltimore high ≥ 64°F · Thu Oct 22

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗