KBWI / Thu Oct 22 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Baltimore, MDHigh ≥ 66°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST77%Oct 19 · 14:27 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

97%

91%

70%

62%

60%

Consensus

77%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

WN2YES 78.1¢Risks 78.10u

EPSNO 21.9¢Risks 21.90u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

WN2 +21.90u · EPS −21.90u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-19T14:27:57+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	EPS	WN2	HRES	ICON
2026-10-15T07:48:54+00:00	66.5%	74.2%	74.8%	38.8%	50.4%
2026-10-15T08:35:48+00:00	66.5%	74.2%	74.8%	38.8%	50.4%
2026-10-15T09:21:11+00:00	66.5%	74.2%	74.8%	38.8%	50.4%
2026-10-15T10:06:57+00:00	66.5%	74.2%	74.8%	38.8%	50.4%
2026-10-15T10:52:48+00:00	66.5%	74.2%	74.8%	38.8%	50.4%
2026-10-16T04:23:51+00:00	39.0%	69.1%	69.6%	21.3%	81.5%
2026-10-16T05:10:22+00:00	39.0%	69.1%	63.8%	21.3%	81.5%
2026-10-16T05:55:47+00:00	39.0%	69.1%	63.8%	21.3%	81.5%
2026-10-16T06:41:01+00:00	39.0%	69.1%	63.8%	21.3%	81.5%
2026-10-16T07:26:11+00:00	42.6%	69.1%	63.8%	21.3%	84.4%
2026-10-16T08:11:21+00:00	42.6%	69.1%	63.8%	21.3%	84.4%
2026-10-16T08:56:31+00:00	42.6%	69.1%	63.8%	21.3%	84.4%
2026-10-16T09:41:40+00:00	42.6%	69.1%	63.8%	21.3%	84.4%
2026-10-16T10:26:46+00:00	42.6%	69.1%	63.8%	21.3%	84.4%
2026-10-16T11:12:03+00:00	42.6%	34.5%	72.6%	21.3%	84.4%
2026-10-16T11:57:35+00:00	42.6%	34.5%	72.6%	21.3%	84.4%
2026-10-16T12:42:45+00:00	42.6%	34.5%	72.6%	21.3%	84.4%
2026-10-16T13:27:57+00:00	28.3%	34.5%	72.6%	27.2%	84.4%
2026-10-16T14:19:39+00:00	28.3%	34.5%	72.6%	27.2%	84.7%
2026-10-18T04:13:39+00:00	90.9%	54.3%	86.3%	54.1%	50.0%
2026-10-18T05:00:10+00:00	90.9%	54.3%	94.8%	54.1%	50.0%
2026-10-18T05:45:17+00:00	90.9%	54.3%	94.8%	54.1%	50.0%
2026-10-18T06:30:24+00:00	90.9%	54.3%	94.8%	54.1%	50.0%
2026-10-18T07:15:31+00:00	90.9%	54.3%	94.8%	54.1%	50.0%
2026-10-18T08:00:49+00:00	93.6%	54.3%	94.8%	61.0%	81.6%
2026-10-18T08:47:08+00:00	93.6%	54.3%	94.8%	61.0%	81.6%
2026-10-18T09:32:15+00:00	93.6%	54.3%	94.8%	61.0%	81.6%
2026-10-18T10:17:24+00:00	93.6%	54.3%	94.8%	61.0%	81.6%
2026-10-18T11:02:33+00:00	93.6%	64.4%	96.2%	61.0%	81.6%
2026-10-18T11:48:11+00:00	93.6%	64.4%	96.2%	61.0%	81.6%
2026-10-18T12:33:24+00:00	93.6%	64.4%	96.2%	61.0%	81.6%
2026-10-18T13:18:59+00:00	93.6%	64.4%	96.2%	61.0%	81.6%
2026-10-18T14:04:07+00:00	92.8%	64.4%	96.2%	61.0%	81.6%
2026-10-18T14:55:28+00:00	92.8%	64.4%	96.2%	61.0%	81.6%
2026-10-18T15:41:24+00:00	92.8%	55.5%	96.2%	61.0%	81.6%
2026-10-18T16:26:44+00:00	92.8%	55.5%	96.2%	61.0%	81.6%
2026-10-18T17:12:03+00:00	92.8%	55.5%	96.8%	61.0%	81.6%
2026-10-18T17:57:15+00:00	92.8%	55.5%	96.8%	61.0%	81.6%
2026-10-18T18:42:44+00:00	92.8%	55.5%	96.8%	61.0%	81.6%
2026-10-18T19:27:52+00:00	92.2%	55.5%	96.8%	53.2%	75.1%
2026-10-18T20:13:04+00:00	92.2%	55.5%	96.8%	53.2%	75.1%
2026-10-18T20:58:13+00:00	92.2%	55.5%	96.8%	53.2%	75.1%
2026-10-18T21:43:22+00:00	92.2%	55.5%	96.8%	53.2%	75.1%
2026-10-18T22:28:30+00:00	92.2%	55.5%	96.8%	53.2%	75.1%
2026-10-18T23:13:37+00:00	92.2%	55.5%	97.2%	53.2%	75.1%
2026-10-18T23:58:48+00:00	92.2%	55.5%	97.2%	53.2%	75.1%
2026-10-19T00:44:03+00:00	92.2%	55.5%	97.2%	53.2%	75.1%
2026-10-19T01:29:27+00:00	91.8%	55.5%	97.2%	53.2%	75.1%
2026-10-19T02:14:42+00:00	91.8%	55.5%	97.2%	53.2%	75.1%
2026-10-19T02:59:51+00:00	91.8%	55.5%	97.2%	53.2%	75.1%
2026-10-19T03:45:01+00:00	91.8%	55.5%	97.2%	53.2%	75.1%
2026-10-19T04:30:18+00:00	91.8%	55.5%	97.2%	53.2%	75.1%
2026-10-19T05:16:52+00:00	91.8%	55.5%	97.8%	53.2%	75.1%
2026-10-19T06:02:10+00:00	91.8%	55.5%	97.8%	53.2%	75.1%
2026-10-19T06:47:18+00:00	91.8%	55.5%	97.8%	53.2%	75.1%
2026-10-19T07:32:34+00:00	90.1%	55.5%	97.8%	61.5%	70.1%
2026-10-19T08:19:20+00:00	90.1%	55.5%	97.8%	61.5%	70.1%
2026-10-19T09:04:26+00:00	90.1%	55.5%	97.8%	61.5%	70.1%
2026-10-19T09:49:31+00:00	90.1%	55.5%	97.8%	61.5%	70.1%
2026-10-19T10:34:53+00:00	90.1%	55.5%	97.8%	61.5%	70.1%
2026-10-19T11:20:35+00:00	90.1%	59.5%	96.7%	61.5%	70.1%
2026-10-19T12:06:26+00:00	90.1%	59.5%	96.7%	61.5%	70.1%
2026-10-19T12:51:48+00:00	90.1%	59.5%	96.7%	61.5%	70.1%
2026-10-19T13:36:54+00:00	90.5%	59.5%	96.7%	61.5%	70.1%
2026-10-19T14:27:57+00:00	90.6%	59.5%	96.7%	61.5%	70.1%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
WeatherNext 2	97%	71.7°F	3.4°F	2026-10-19 00:00	Pending
AIFS Single	91%	71.1°F	4.3°F	2026-10-19 06:00	Pending
ICON	70%	67.6°F	4.0°F	2026-10-19 00:00	Pending
IFS HRES	62%	66.8°F	4.5°F	2026-10-19 00:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	60%	66.2°F	2.9°F	2026-10-19 00:00	Pending
National Blend	59%	66.0°F	2.2°F	2026-10-19 06:00	Pending
NWS forecast	55%	66.0°F	3.9°F	2026-10-19 03:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 66°F · KBWI

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KBWI-20261022-TMAX-GE66
Opened Oct 15 · 07:48 UTC

Original listing: Baltimore high ≥ 66°F · Thu Oct 22

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗