KBWI / Thu Oct 22 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Baltimore, MDHigh ≥ 66°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST77%Oct 19 · 14:27 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

97%

91%

70%

62%

60%

Consensus

77%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

WN2YES 78.1¢Risks 78.10u

EPSNO 21.9¢Risks 21.90u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

WN2 +21.90u · EPS −21.90u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-10-07T06:00:00+00:00	0.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T12:00:00+00:00	1.1%	—	—	—	—	9.8%
2026-10-07T18:00:00+00:00	38.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T00:00:00+00:00	42.6%	—	—	—	—	36.9%
2026-10-08T06:00:00+00:00	78.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T12:00:00+00:00	51.6%	—	—	—	—	45.8%
2026-10-08T18:00:00+00:00	56.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T00:00:00+00:00	69.4%	—	—	—	—	46.3%
2026-10-09T06:00:00+00:00	50.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:00	60.5%	—	—	—	—	59.0%
2026-10-09T18:00:00+00:00	73.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:00	80.7%	—	—	—	—	55.3%
2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:00	73.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00	37.5%	—	—	—	—	66.0%
2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00	34.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00	40.0%	—	—	—	—	63.1%
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00	39.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00	40.5%	—	—	—	—	60.0%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00	13.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00	45.1%	—	—	—	—	61.4%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00	69.3%	—	55.6%	—	—	—
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00	62.8%	—	—	—	—	51.1%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00	88.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00	83.0%	—	—	—	—	49.4%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00	72.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00	83.1%	—	—	—	—	58.4%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00	86.4%	—	89.8%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00	84.3%	—	89.9%	—	—	53.8%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00	86.9%	—	90.6%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00	29.5%	—	75.4%	—	—	35.4%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00	48.7%	—	64.3%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00	39.3%	22.3%	41.9%	—	—	38.7%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00	58.9%	—	55.5%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00	12.2%	77.6%	36.9%	40.3%	—	33.6%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00	14.4%	—	22.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00	17.0%	74.6%	12.8%	35.7%	—	17.0%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00	8.3%	—	12.7%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00	11.0%	30.9%	12.9%	62.7%	—	26.4%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00	15.9%	—	25.3%	—	—	—
2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00	55.6%	43.6%	58.7%	67.7%	—	30.1%
2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00	73.0%	12.2%	67.4%	—	—	28.3%
2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00	72.8%	28.6%	62.3%	49.2%	—	37.7%
2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00	74.0%	41.5%	65.8%	—	—	39.8%
2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00	76.6%	72.4%	67.0%	45.6%	—	39.6%
2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00	75.8%	64.1%	75.8%	—	—	35.9%
2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00	74.1%	64.4%	67.0%	31.4%	—	36.4%
2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00	74.7%	55.7%	60.3%	—	—	—
2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00	68.7%	63.4%	64.3%	36.6%	—	42.3%
2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00	70.1%	65.6%	62.8%	—	—	1.4%
2026-10-19T12:00:00+00:00	70.6%	53.1%	67.0%	18.3%	—	38.8%
2026-10-19T18:00:00+00:00	71.2%	71.2%	72.1%	—	—	41.6%
2026-10-20T00:00:00+00:00	71.8%	71.8%	72.7%	41.3%	26.4%	44.5%
2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00	71.4%	—	71.4%	0.0%	—	41.0%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
WeatherNext 2	97%	71.7°F	3.4°F	2026-10-19 00:00	Pending
AIFS Single	91%	71.1°F	4.3°F	2026-10-19 06:00	Pending
ICON	70%	67.6°F	4.0°F	2026-10-19 00:00	Pending
IFS HRES	62%	66.8°F	4.5°F	2026-10-19 00:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	60%	66.2°F	2.9°F	2026-10-19 00:00	Pending
National Blend	59%	66.0°F	2.2°F	2026-10-19 06:00	Pending
NWS forecast	55%	66.0°F	3.9°F	2026-10-19 03:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 66°F · KBWI

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KBWI-20261022-TMAX-GE66
Opened Oct 15 · 07:48 UTC

Original listing: Baltimore high ≥ 66°F · Thu Oct 22

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗