KBWI / Fri Oct 23 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Baltimore, MDHigh ≥ 66°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST47%Oct 18 · 14:04 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

76%

51%

48%

47%

10%

Consensus

47%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

WN2YES 42.8¢Risks 42.75u

HRESNO 57.2¢Risks 57.25u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

WN2 +57.25u · HRES −57.25u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-18T14:04:07+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	EPS	WN2	HRES	ICON
2026-10-16T13:27:57+00:00	52.8%	46.5%	96.0%	63.4%	52.0%
2026-10-16T14:19:39+00:00	52.8%	46.5%	96.0%	63.3%	52.0%
2026-10-16T15:05:09+00:00	52.8%	46.5%	96.0%	63.3%	52.0%
2026-10-16T15:50:53+00:00	52.8%	46.5%	96.0%	63.3%	52.0%
2026-10-16T16:36:04+00:00	52.8%	46.5%	96.0%	63.3%	52.0%
2026-10-16T17:21:16+00:00	52.8%	46.5%	95.4%	63.3%	52.0%
2026-10-16T18:06:35+00:00	52.8%	46.5%	95.4%	63.3%	52.0%
2026-10-16T18:51:41+00:00	52.8%	46.5%	95.4%	63.3%	52.0%
2026-10-16T19:36:50+00:00	28.9%	46.5%	95.4%	63.3%	55.6%
2026-10-16T20:22:21+00:00	28.9%	46.5%	95.4%	63.3%	55.6%
2026-10-16T21:07:44+00:00	28.9%	46.5%	95.4%	63.3%	55.6%
2026-10-16T21:52:50+00:00	28.9%	46.5%	95.4%	63.3%	55.6%
2026-10-16T22:37:58+00:00	28.9%	46.5%	95.4%	48.8%	55.6%
2026-10-16T23:23:15+00:00	28.9%	46.5%	91.2%	48.8%	55.6%
2026-10-17T00:08:46+00:00	28.9%	46.5%	91.2%	48.8%	55.6%
2026-10-17T00:54:54+00:00	28.9%	46.5%	91.2%	48.8%	55.6%
2026-10-17T01:40:03+00:00	17.8%	46.5%	91.2%	48.8%	55.6%
2026-10-17T02:25:17+00:00	17.8%	46.5%	91.2%	48.8%	55.6%
2026-10-17T03:10:26+00:00	17.8%	46.5%	91.2%	48.8%	55.6%
2026-10-17T03:55:35+00:00	17.8%	46.5%	91.2%	48.8%	55.6%
2026-10-18T04:13:39+00:00	49.3%	46.9%	68.1%	20.2%	31.2%
2026-10-18T05:00:10+00:00	49.3%	46.9%	72.5%	20.2%	31.2%
2026-10-18T05:45:17+00:00	49.3%	46.9%	72.5%	20.2%	31.2%
2026-10-18T06:30:24+00:00	49.3%	46.9%	72.5%	20.2%	31.2%
2026-10-18T07:15:31+00:00	49.3%	46.9%	72.5%	20.2%	31.2%
2026-10-18T08:00:49+00:00	66.4%	46.9%	72.5%	9.5%	47.4%
2026-10-18T08:47:08+00:00	66.4%	46.9%	72.5%	9.5%	47.4%
2026-10-18T09:32:15+00:00	66.4%	46.9%	72.5%	9.5%	47.4%
2026-10-18T10:17:24+00:00	66.4%	46.9%	72.5%	9.5%	47.4%
2026-10-18T11:02:33+00:00	66.4%	48.5%	76.0%	9.5%	47.4%
2026-10-18T11:48:11+00:00	66.4%	48.5%	76.0%	9.5%	47.4%
2026-10-18T12:33:24+00:00	66.4%	48.5%	76.0%	9.5%	47.4%
2026-10-18T13:18:59+00:00	66.4%	48.5%	76.0%	9.5%	47.4%
2026-10-18T14:04:07+00:00	50.8%	48.5%	76.0%	9.5%	47.4%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
WeatherNext 2	76%	68.4°F	4.1°F	2026-10-18 00:00	Pending
NWS forecast	54%	66.0°F	5.2°F	2026-10-18 03:00	Pending
AIFS Single	51%	65.6°F	5.0°F	2026-10-18 06:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	48%	65.4°F	2.7°F	2026-10-18 00:00	Pending
ICON	47%	65.1°F	6.1°F	2026-10-18 00:00	Pending
National Blend	37%	64.0°F	4.4°F	2026-10-18 06:00	Pending
IFS HRES	10%	57.9°F	5.8°F	2026-10-18 00:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 66°F · KBWI

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KBWI-20261023-TMAX-GE66
Opened Oct 16 · 13:27 UTC

Original listing: Baltimore high ≥ 66°F · Fri Oct 23

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗