KBWI / Fri Oct 23 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Baltimore, MDHigh ≥ 66°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST47%Oct 18 · 14:04 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

76%

51%

48%

47%

10%

Consensus

47%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

WN2YES 42.8¢Risks 42.75u

HRESNO 57.2¢Risks 57.25u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

WN2 +57.25u · HRES −57.25u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-10-08T06:00:00+00:00	18.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T12:00:00+00:00	9.8%	—	—	—	—	8.7%
2026-10-08T18:00:00+00:00	41.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T00:00:00+00:00	86.6%	—	—	—	—	41.0%
2026-10-09T06:00:00+00:00	74.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:00	80.0%	—	—	—	—	53.7%
2026-10-09T18:00:00+00:00	72.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:00	26.1%	—	—	—	—	37.5%
2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:00	83.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00	68.4%	—	—	—	—	65.0%
2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00	52.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00	59.5%	—	—	—	—	63.1%
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00	70.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00	89.7%	—	—	—	—	63.1%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00	62.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00	39.0%	—	—	—	—	70.8%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00	81.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00	84.9%	—	—	—	—	59.5%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00	90.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00	87.9%	—	—	—	—	60.3%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00	88.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00	92.5%	—	—	—	—	60.7%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00	76.1%	—	51.7%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00	87.1%	—	20.5%	—	—	59.3%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00	84.5%	—	65.7%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00	69.2%	—	—	—	—	38.0%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00	88.9%	—	78.5%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00	83.6%	—	12.5%	—	—	45.0%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00	91.8%	—	62.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00	62.2%	—	13.4%	—	—	45.5%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00	52.0%	—	55.3%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00	71.2%	24.4%	45.3%	—	—	35.5%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00	25.6%	—	66.1%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00	9.3%	28.6%	81.6%	31.1%	—	43.7%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00	4.1%	—	63.4%	—	—	—
2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00	12.8%	35.0%	44.2%	50.0%	—	24.3%
2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00	34.0%	—	38.2%	—	—	—
2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00	34.4%	8.4%	56.1%	30.3%	—	17.4%
2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00	21.7%	—	56.2%	—	—	10.5%
2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00	36.7%	26.8%	53.2%	42.1%	—	11.9%
2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00	22.4%	12.6%	20.1%	—	—	7.9%
2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00	27.2%	14.3%	56.6%	18.9%	—	6.3%
2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00	23.3%	10.3%	39.8%	—	—	—
2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00	21.4%	8.0%	33.8%	22.1%	—	3.2%
2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00	11.2%	8.8%	31.8%	—	—	—
2026-10-19T12:00:00+00:00	9.8%	4.1%	21.6%	5.5%	—	1.2%
2026-10-19T18:00:00+00:00	11.3%	7.0%	23.8%	—	—	1.6%
2026-10-20T00:00:00+00:00	11.6%	18.3%	16.5%	4.9%	10.2%	1.8%
2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00	12.4%	—	19.0%	—	—	1.6%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
WeatherNext 2	76%	68.4°F	4.1°F	2026-10-18 00:00	Pending
NWS forecast	54%	66.0°F	5.2°F	2026-10-18 03:00	Pending
AIFS Single	51%	65.6°F	5.0°F	2026-10-18 06:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	48%	65.4°F	2.7°F	2026-10-18 00:00	Pending
ICON	47%	65.1°F	6.1°F	2026-10-18 00:00	Pending
National Blend	37%	64.0°F	4.4°F	2026-10-18 06:00	Pending
IFS HRES	10%	57.9°F	5.8°F	2026-10-18 00:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 66°F · KBWI

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KBWI-20261023-TMAX-GE66
Opened Oct 16 · 13:27 UTC

Original listing: Baltimore high ≥ 66°F · Fri Oct 23

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗