KBWI / Fri Oct 23 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Baltimore, MDHigh ≥ 76°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST2%Oct 17 · 19:11 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

12%

<1%

Consensus

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

ICONYES 6.2¢Risks 3.10u

EPSNO 93.8¢Risks 46.90u

50 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

ICON +46.90u · EPS −46.90u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-17T19:11:01+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	EPS	WN2	HRES	ICON
2026-10-16T13:27:57+00:00	4.6%	1.0%	41.4%	11.2%	16.9%
2026-10-16T14:19:39+00:00	4.8%	1.0%	41.5%	11.3%	17.0%
2026-10-16T15:05:09+00:00	4.8%	1.0%	41.5%	11.3%	17.0%
2026-10-16T15:50:53+00:00	4.8%	1.0%	41.5%	11.3%	17.0%
2026-10-16T16:36:04+00:00	4.8%	1.0%	41.5%	11.3%	17.0%
2026-10-16T17:21:16+00:00	4.8%	1.0%	39.2%	11.3%	17.0%
2026-10-16T18:06:35+00:00	4.8%	1.0%	39.2%	11.3%	17.0%
2026-10-16T18:51:41+00:00	4.8%	1.0%	39.2%	11.3%	17.0%
2026-10-16T19:36:50+00:00	1.1%	1.0%	39.2%	11.3%	19.4%
2026-10-16T20:22:21+00:00	1.1%	1.0%	39.2%	11.3%	19.4%
2026-10-16T21:07:44+00:00	1.1%	1.0%	39.2%	11.3%	19.4%
2026-10-16T21:52:50+00:00	1.1%	1.0%	39.2%	11.3%	19.4%
2026-10-16T22:37:58+00:00	1.1%	1.0%	39.2%	5.7%	19.4%
2026-10-16T23:23:16+00:00	1.1%	1.0%	27.2%	5.7%	19.4%
2026-10-17T00:08:46+00:00	1.1%	1.0%	27.2%	5.7%	19.4%
2026-10-17T00:54:54+00:00	1.1%	1.0%	27.2%	5.7%	19.4%
2026-10-17T01:40:03+00:00	0.4%	1.0%	27.2%	5.7%	19.4%
2026-10-17T02:25:17+00:00	0.4%	1.0%	27.2%	5.7%	19.4%
2026-10-17T03:10:26+00:00	0.4%	1.0%	27.2%	5.7%	19.4%
2026-10-17T03:55:35+00:00	0.4%	1.0%	27.2%	5.7%	19.4%
2026-10-17T04:40:56+00:00	0.4%	1.0%	27.2%	5.7%	19.4%
2026-10-17T05:28:05+00:00	0.4%	1.0%	27.2%	5.7%	19.4%
2026-10-17T06:13:33+00:00	0.4%	1.0%	22.2%	5.7%	19.4%
2026-10-17T06:58:42+00:00	0.4%	1.0%	22.2%	5.7%	19.4%
2026-10-17T07:43:56+00:00	1.4%	1.0%	22.2%	3.3%	11.9%
2026-10-17T08:30:36+00:00	1.4%	1.0%	22.2%	3.3%	11.9%
2026-10-17T09:16:23+00:00	1.4%	1.0%	22.2%	3.3%	11.9%
2026-10-17T10:01:47+00:00	1.4%	1.0%	22.2%	3.3%	11.9%
2026-10-17T10:46:53+00:00	1.4%	1.0%	22.2%	3.3%	11.9%
2026-10-17T11:31:59+00:00	1.4%	0.3%	12.8%	3.3%	11.9%
2026-10-17T12:17:25+00:00	1.4%	0.3%	12.8%	3.3%	11.9%
2026-10-17T13:02:31+00:00	1.4%	0.3%	12.8%	3.3%	11.9%
2026-10-17T13:47:46+00:00	6.2%	0.3%	12.8%	3.5%	11.9%
2026-10-17T14:39:14+00:00	6.2%	0.3%	12.9%	3.3%	12.0%
2026-10-17T15:24:25+00:00	6.2%	0.4%	12.9%	3.3%	12.0%
2026-10-17T16:10:29+00:00	6.2%	0.4%	12.9%	3.3%	12.0%
2026-10-17T16:55:37+00:00	6.2%	0.4%	7.9%	3.3%	12.0%
2026-10-17T17:40:46+00:00	6.2%	0.4%	7.9%	3.3%	12.0%
2026-10-17T18:25:54+00:00	6.2%	0.4%	7.9%	3.3%	12.0%
2026-10-17T19:11:01+00:00	6.2%	0.4%	7.9%	3.3%	12.0%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
ICON	12%	67.1°F	7.2°F	2026-10-17 00:00	Pending
NWS forecast	10%	68.0°F	5.9°F	2026-10-17 14:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	8%	68.9°F	4.7°F	2026-10-17 06:00	Pending
AIFS Single	6%	67.2°F	5.4°F	2026-10-17 06:00	Pending
IFS HRES	3%	63.4°F	6.6°F	2026-10-17 00:00	Pending
National Blend	2%	66.0°F	4.5°F	2026-10-17 06:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	<1%	65.2°F	3.9°F	2026-10-17 00:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 76°F · KBWI

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KBWI-20261023-TMAX-GE76
Opened Oct 16 · 13:27 UTC

Original listing: Baltimore runs hot-for-here: 76°F+ · Fri Oct 23

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗