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KBWI / Fri Oct 23 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Baltimore, MDHigh ≥ 76°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST2%Oct 17 · 19:11 UTC
THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%
ICON
12%
WN2
8%
AIFS
6%
HRES
3%
EPS
<1%
Consensus
2%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED
ICONYES 6.2¢Risks 3.10u
VS
EPSNO 93.8¢Risks 46.90u

50 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

ICON +46.90u · EPS −46.90u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

RecordedReconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

0%25%50%75%100%AIFS Single: 1.2% · 2026-10-08T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.4% · 2026-10-08T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 6.1% · 2026-10-08T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 41.0% · 2026-10-09T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 25.2% · 2026-10-09T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 31.1% · 2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 22.8% · 2026-10-09T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 2.4% · 2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 36.4% · 2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 19.7% · 2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 10.0% · 2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 13.7% · 2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 21.2% · 2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 47.3% · 2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 15.6% · 2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 5.3% · 2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 33.0% · 2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 37.9% · 2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 48.4% · 2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 41.8% · 2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 41.1% · 2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 50.6% · 2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 23.0% · 2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 36.8% · 2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 31.6% · 2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 15.4% · 2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 37.3% · 2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 27.5% · 2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 41.8% · 2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 9.3% · 2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 5.3% · 2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 12.8% · 2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.9% · 2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.1% · 2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.0% · 2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.1% · 2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 1.1% · 2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 1.0% · 2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.3% · 2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 1.0% · 2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.2% · 2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.4% · 2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.2% · 2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.1% · 2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.0% · 2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.0% · 2026-10-19T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.0% · 2026-10-19T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.0% · 2026-10-20T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.0% · 2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00ICON: 0.8% · 2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00ICON: 1.0% · 2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00ICON: 1.3% · 2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00ICON: 0.1% · 2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00ICON: 0.4% · 2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00ICON: 0.1% · 2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00ICON: 0.1% · 2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00ICON: 0.0% · 2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00ICON: 0.0% · 2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00ICON: 0.0% · 2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00ICON: 0.0% · 2026-10-19T12:00:00+00:00ICON: 0.0% · 2026-10-19T18:00:00+00:00ICON: 0.0% · 2026-10-20T00:00:00+00:00GFS: 8.0% · 2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00GFS: 1.1% · 2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00GFS: 13.8% · 2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00GFS: 22.4% · 2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00GFS: 0.3% · 2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00GFS: 9.7% · 2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00GFS: 0.3% · 2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00GFS: 6.3% · 2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00GFS: 3.5% · 2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00GFS: 9.5% · 2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00GFS: 19.4% · 2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00GFS: 7.3% · 2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00GFS: 2.4% · 2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00GFS: 1.5% · 2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00GFS: 3.9% · 2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00GFS: 3.6% · 2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00GFS: 2.7% · 2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00GFS: 0.2% · 2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00GFS: 2.7% · 2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00GFS: 0.8% · 2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00GFS: 0.4% · 2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00GFS: 0.3% · 2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00GFS: 0.1% · 2026-10-19T12:00:00+00:00GFS: 0.1% · 2026-10-19T18:00:00+00:00GFS: 0.0% · 2026-10-20T00:00:00+00:00GFS: 0.0% · 2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00UKMET: 1.2% · 2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00UKMET: 3.3% · 2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00UKMET: 0.8% · 2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00UKMET: 1.4% · 2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00UKMET: 0.1% · 2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00UKMET: 0.1% · 2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00UKMET: 0.0% · 2026-10-19T12:00:00+00:00UKMET: 0.0% · 2026-10-20T00:00:00+00:00GEM: 0.0% · 2026-10-20T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 0.4% · 2026-10-08T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 5.9% · 2026-10-09T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 10.8% · 2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 4.9% · 2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 17.2% · 2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 15.9% · 2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 15.9% · 2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 21.6% · 2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 13.6% · 2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 13.2% · 2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 12.4% · 2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 10.8% · 2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 3.4% · 2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 4.5% · 2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 4.0% · 2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 1.9% · 2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 2.7% · 2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 0.6% · 2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 0.2% · 2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 0.1% · 2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 0.1% · 2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 0.0% · 2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 0.0% · 2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 0.0% · 2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 0.0% · 2026-10-19T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 0.0% · 2026-10-19T18:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 0.0% · 2026-10-20T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 0.0% · 2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:0010-08 06:0010-14 06:0010-20 06:00
AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive
2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00 · UTC
View the forecast data
UTCAIFSICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS*
2026-10-08T06:00:00+00:001.2%—————
2026-10-08T12:00:00+00:000.4%————0.4%
2026-10-08T18:00:00+00:006.1%—————
2026-10-09T00:00:00+00:0041.0%————5.9%
2026-10-09T06:00:00+00:0025.2%—————
2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:0031.1%————10.8%
2026-10-09T18:00:00+00:0022.8%—————
2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:002.4%————4.9%
2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:0036.4%—————
2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:0019.7%————17.2%
2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:0010.0%—————
2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:0013.7%————15.9%
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:0021.2%—————
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:0047.3%————15.9%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:0015.6%—————
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:005.3%————21.6%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:0033.0%—————
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:0037.9%————13.6%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:0048.4%—————
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:0041.8%————13.2%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:0041.1%—————
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:0050.6%————12.4%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:0023.0%—8.0%———
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:0036.8%—1.1%——10.8%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:0031.6%—13.8%———
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:0015.4%————3.4%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:0037.3%—22.4%———
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:0027.5%—0.3%——4.5%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:0041.8%—9.7%———
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:009.3%—0.3%——4.0%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:005.3%—6.3%———
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:0012.8%0.8%3.5%——1.9%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:000.9%—9.5%———
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:000.1%1.0%19.4%1.2%—2.7%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:000.0%—7.3%———
2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:000.1%1.3%2.4%3.3%—0.6%
2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:001.1%—1.5%———
2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:001.0%0.1%3.9%0.8%—0.2%
2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:000.3%—3.6%——0.1%
2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:001.0%0.4%2.7%1.4%—0.1%
2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:000.2%0.1%0.2%——0.0%
2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:000.4%0.1%2.7%0.1%—0.0%
2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:000.2%0.0%0.8%———
2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:000.1%0.0%0.4%0.1%—0.0%
2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:000.0%0.0%0.3%———
2026-10-19T12:00:00+00:000.0%0.0%0.1%0.0%—0.0%
2026-10-19T18:00:00+00:000.0%0.0%0.1%——0.0%
2026-10-20T00:00:00+00:000.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:000.0%—0.0%——0.0%
THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODELYESMEANSPREAD σINITIALIZATION UTCBRIER ↓
ICON12%67.1°F7.2°F2026-10-17 00:00Pending
NWS forecast10%68.0°F5.9°F2026-10-17 14:00Pending
WeatherNext 28%68.9°F4.7°F2026-10-17 06:00Pending
AIFS Single6%67.2°F5.4°F2026-10-17 06:00Pending
IFS HRES3%63.4°F6.6°F2026-10-17 00:00Pending
National Blend2%66.0°F4.5°F2026-10-17 06:00Pending
IFS Ensemble<1%65.2°F3.9°F2026-10-17 00:00Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 76°F · KBWI

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KBWI-20261023-TMAX-GE76
Opened Oct 16 · 13:27 UTC

Original listing: Baltimore runs hot-for-here: 76°F+ · Fri Oct 23

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗