KBWI / Sat Oct 24 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Baltimore, MDHigh ≥ 60°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST—Time unavailable

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

Two model forecasts are needed to illustrate an opposing contract.

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-10-09T06:00:00+00:00	8.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:00	6.6%	—	—	—	—	37.5%
2026-10-09T18:00:00+00:00	92.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:00	44.2%	—	—	—	—	69.4%
2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:00	98.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00	97.0%	—	—	—	—	81.4%
2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00	88.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00	96.7%	—	—	—	—	81.4%
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00	88.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00	85.7%	—	—	—	—	81.8%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00	25.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00	98.9%	—	—	—	—	89.5%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00	98.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00	89.7%	—	—	—	—	80.7%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00	96.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00	85.7%	—	—	—	—	87.2%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00	56.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00	94.6%	—	—	—	—	84.5%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00	87.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00	76.8%	—	—	—	—	77.2%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00	62.6%	—	35.8%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00	75.7%	—	—	—	—	61.2%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00	75.6%	—	66.3%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00	94.7%	—	—	—	—	72.2%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00	92.0%	—	42.9%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00	67.0%	—	—	—	—	75.8%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00	63.9%	—	83.9%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00	89.9%	—	—	—	—	68.2%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00	81.1%	—	64.4%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00	27.3%	—	80.2%	—	—	64.0%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00	20.8%	—	66.1%	—	—	—
2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00	15.9%	18.0%	75.6%	—	—	48.0%
2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00	39.8%	—	76.1%	—	—	—
2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00	22.4%	17.5%	78.1%	31.7%	—	37.6%
2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00	63.4%	—	64.7%	—	—	—
2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00	54.4%	49.3%	69.6%	55.1%	—	34.3%
2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00	70.7%	—	42.6%	—	—	—
2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00	62.7%	50.0%	76.1%	77.8%	—	39.4%
2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00	61.5%	—	55.5%	—	—	—
2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00	70.5%	46.0%	55.6%	38.2%	—	33.0%
2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00	73.7%	5.1%	50.8%	—	—	—
2026-10-19T12:00:00+00:00	78.1%	47.5%	56.6%	45.8%	—	35.3%
2026-10-19T18:00:00+00:00	77.4%	52.6%	54.3%	—	—	0.1%
2026-10-20T00:00:00+00:00	77.2%	70.9%	77.2%	56.1%	69.3%	46.5%
2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00	79.1%	—	77.8%	—	—	50.0%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 60°F · KBWI

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KBWI-20261024-TMAX-GE60
Opened Oct 19 · 04:30 UTC

Original listing: Baltimore high ≥ 60°F · Sat Oct 24

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗