KBWI / Sat Oct 24 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Baltimore, MDHigh ≥ 60°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST83%Oct 20 · 13:55 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

97%

93%

81%

72%

54%

Consensus

83%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

WN2YES 75.3¢Risks 75.30u

HRESNO 24.7¢Risks 24.70u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

WN2 +24.70u · HRES −24.70u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-20T13:55:07+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	EPS	WN2	HRES	ICON
2026-10-19T04:30:18+00:00	82.2%	66.0%	87.6%	41.0%	69.8%
2026-10-19T05:16:52+00:00	82.2%	66.0%	84.3%	41.0%	69.8%
2026-10-19T06:02:10+00:00	82.2%	66.0%	84.3%	41.0%	69.8%
2026-10-19T06:47:18+00:00	82.2%	66.0%	84.3%	41.0%	69.8%
2026-10-19T07:32:34+00:00	89.1%	66.0%	84.3%	27.9%	64.0%
2026-10-19T08:19:20+00:00	89.1%	66.0%	84.3%	27.9%	64.0%
2026-10-19T09:04:26+00:00	89.1%	66.0%	84.3%	27.9%	64.0%
2026-10-19T09:49:31+00:00	89.1%	66.0%	84.3%	27.9%	64.0%
2026-10-19T10:34:53+00:00	89.1%	66.0%	84.3%	27.9%	64.0%
2026-10-19T11:20:35+00:00	89.1%	57.4%	92.4%	27.9%	64.0%
2026-10-19T12:06:26+00:00	89.1%	57.4%	92.4%	27.9%	64.0%
2026-10-19T12:51:48+00:00	89.1%	57.4%	92.4%	27.9%	64.0%
2026-10-19T13:36:54+00:00	90.5%	57.4%	92.4%	27.9%	64.0%
2026-10-19T14:27:57+00:00	90.6%	57.4%	92.4%	27.8%	64.1%
2026-10-20T04:51:09+00:00	91.6%	57.7%	93.1%	47.2%	65.3%
2026-10-20T05:36:25+00:00	91.6%	57.7%	93.7%	47.2%	65.3%
2026-10-20T06:21:38+00:00	91.6%	57.7%	93.7%	47.2%	65.3%
2026-10-20T07:06:45+00:00	91.6%	57.7%	93.7%	47.2%	65.3%
2026-10-20T07:51:51+00:00	92.8%	57.7%	93.7%	47.2%	80.6%
2026-10-20T08:37:04+00:00	92.8%	57.7%	93.7%	47.2%	80.6%
2026-10-20T09:22:15+00:00	92.8%	57.7%	93.7%	47.2%	80.6%
2026-10-20T10:07:44+00:00	92.8%	57.7%	93.7%	47.2%	80.6%
2026-10-20T10:52:58+00:00	92.8%	72.4%	96.6%	54.0%	80.6%
2026-10-20T11:39:42+00:00	92.8%	72.4%	96.6%	54.0%	80.6%
2026-10-20T12:24:50+00:00	92.8%	72.4%	96.6%	54.0%	80.6%
2026-10-20T13:09:59+00:00	92.8%	72.4%	96.6%	54.0%	80.6%
2026-10-20T13:55:07+00:00	92.9%	72.4%	96.6%	54.0%	80.6%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
WeatherNext 2	97%	66.3°F	3.7°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
AIFS Single	93%	66.2°F	4.6°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
ICON	81%	63.7°F	4.9°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
National Blend	77%	62.0°F	3.4°F	2026-10-20 06:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	72%	61.4°F	3.2°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
NWS forecast	54%	60.0°F	4.5°F	2026-10-20 03:00	Pending
IFS HRES	54%	60.0°F	5.0°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 60°F · KBWI

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KBWI-20261024-TMAX-GE60
Opened Oct 19 · 04:30 UTC

Original listing: Baltimore high ≥ 60°F · Sat Oct 24

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗