KBWI / Sat Oct 24 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Baltimore, MDHigh ≥ 64°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST41%Oct 18 · 14:04 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

67%

53%

48%

32%

13%

Consensus

41%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

AIFSYES 40.1¢Risks 40.10u

HRESNO 59.9¢Risks 59.90u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

AIFS +59.90u · HRES −59.90u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-10-09T06:00:00+00:00	3.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:00	2.1%	—	—	—	—	19.7%
2026-10-09T18:00:00+00:00	81.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:00	24.8%	—	—	—	—	48.9%
2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:00	94.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00	91.1%	—	—	—	—	64.1%
2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00	74.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00	90.4%	—	—	—	—	64.1%
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00	73.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00	70.3%	—	—	—	—	64.5%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00	11.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00	96.1%	—	—	—	—	76.4%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00	94.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00	76.8%	—	—	—	—	63.1%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00	89.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00	70.3%	—	—	—	—	72.6%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00	35.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00	85.8%	—	—	—	—	68.5%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00	73.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00	57.1%	—	—	—	—	57.7%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00	40.6%	—	17.8%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00	55.1%	—	—	—	—	38.8%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00	54.6%	—	43.7%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00	84.8%	—	—	—	—	50.0%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00	79.0%	—	21.8%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00	43.4%	—	—	—	—	53.6%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00	39.6%	—	64.5%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00	74.1%	—	—	—	—	43.7%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00	59.5%	—	39.3%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00	10.4%	—	57.8%	—	—	38.4%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00	6.9%	—	40.2%	—	—	—
2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00	4.7%	5.6%	50.7%	—	—	23.3%
2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00	17.1%	—	50.7%	—	—	—
2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00	7.2%	5.1%	52.8%	11.9%	—	15.3%
2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00	35.3%	—	36.6%	—	—	—
2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00	26.6%	22.6%	41.3%	27.2%	—	12.8%
2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00	41.8%	—	17.4%	—	—	—
2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00	33.0%	22.2%	47.7%	50.0%	—	15.1%
2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00	31.2%	—	25.9%	—	—	—
2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00	39.7%	18.4%	25.5%	13.6%	—	10.8%
2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00	42.7%	0.7%	21.2%	—	—	—
2026-10-19T12:00:00+00:00	47.5%	18.4%	25.1%	17.3%	—	11.2%
2026-10-19T18:00:00+00:00	45.7%	21.4%	22.6%	—	—	0.0%
2026-10-20T00:00:00+00:00	44.8%	37.1%	44.8%	23.4%	35.4%	16.7%
2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00	46.4%	—	44.6%	—	—	18.4%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
AIFS Single	67%	65.9°F	5.4°F	2026-10-18 06:00	Pending
NWS forecast	53%	64.0°F	5.9°F	2026-10-18 03:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	53%	63.9°F	4.7°F	2026-10-18 00:00	Pending
ICON	48%	63.1°F	7.2°F	2026-10-18 00:00	Pending
National Blend	37%	62.0°F	4.5°F	2026-10-18 06:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	32%	61.8°F	3.7°F	2026-10-18 00:00	Pending
IFS HRES	13%	56.1°F	6.6°F	2026-10-18 00:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 64°F · KBWI

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KBWI-20261024-TMAX-GE64
Opened Oct 17 · 07:43 UTC

Original listing: Baltimore high ≥ 64°F · Sat Oct 24

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗