KBWI / Sun Oct 25 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Baltimore, MDHigh ≥ 75°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST2%Oct 20 · 13:55 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

15%

14%

11%

<1%

Consensus

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

ICONYES 7.5¢Risks 3.77u

EPSNO 92.5¢Risks 46.23u

50 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

ICON +46.23u · EPS −46.23u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-20T13:55:07+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	EPS	WN2	HRES	ICON
2026-10-18T19:27:52+00:00	27.1%	0.0%	14.1%	4.9%	36.7%
2026-10-18T20:13:04+00:00	27.1%	0.0%	14.1%	4.9%	36.7%
2026-10-18T20:58:13+00:00	27.1%	0.0%	14.1%	4.9%	36.7%
2026-10-18T21:43:22+00:00	27.1%	0.0%	14.1%	4.9%	36.7%
2026-10-18T22:28:30+00:00	27.1%	0.0%	14.1%	4.9%	36.7%
2026-10-18T23:13:37+00:00	27.1%	0.0%	16.9%	4.9%	36.7%
2026-10-18T23:58:48+00:00	27.1%	0.0%	16.9%	4.9%	36.7%
2026-10-19T00:44:03+00:00	27.1%	0.0%	16.9%	4.9%	36.7%
2026-10-19T01:29:27+00:00	26.6%	0.0%	16.9%	4.9%	36.7%
2026-10-19T02:14:42+00:00	26.6%	0.0%	16.9%	4.9%	36.7%
2026-10-19T02:59:51+00:00	26.6%	0.0%	16.9%	4.9%	36.7%
2026-10-19T03:45:01+00:00	26.6%	0.0%	16.9%	4.9%	36.7%
2026-10-19T04:30:20+00:00	26.6%	0.0%	16.9%	4.9%	36.7%
2026-10-20T10:52:58+00:00	11.2%	0.4%	14.2%	5.0%	14.7%
2026-10-20T11:39:42+00:00	11.2%	0.4%	14.2%	5.0%	14.7%
2026-10-20T12:24:50+00:00	11.2%	0.4%	14.2%	5.0%	14.7%
2026-10-20T13:09:59+00:00	11.2%	0.4%	14.2%	5.0%	14.7%
2026-10-20T13:55:07+00:00	11.2%	0.4%	14.2%	5.0%	14.7%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
ICON	15%	68.1°F	6.1°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	14%	70.1°F	4.1°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
AIFS Single	11%	68.5°F	4.9°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
NWS forecast	5%	66.0°F	5.2°F	2026-10-20 03:00	Pending
IFS HRES	5%	65.0°F	5.8°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	<1%	65.4°F	3.4°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
National Blend	<1%	65.0°F	3.3°F	2026-10-20 06:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 75°F · KBWI

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KBWI-20261025-TMAX-GE75
Opened Oct 18 · 19:27 UTC

Original listing: Baltimore runs hot-for-here: 75°F+ · Sun Oct 25

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗