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KBWI / Mon Oct 26 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Baltimore, MDHigh ≥ 67°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST74%Oct 19 · 10:34 UTC
THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%
WN2
94%
AIFS
94%
HRES
78%
EPS
44%
ICON
26%
Consensus
74%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED
WN2YES 59.9¢Risks 59.95u
VS
ICONNO 40.1¢Risks 40.05u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

WN2 +40.05u · ICON −40.05u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

RecordedReconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

0%25%50%75%100%AIFS Single: 93.7% · 2026-10-19T07:32:34+00:00AIFS Single: 93.7% · 2026-10-19T08:19:20+00:00AIFS Single: 93.7% · 2026-10-19T09:04:26+00:00AIFS Single: 93.7% · 2026-10-19T09:49:31+00:00AIFS Single: 93.7% · 2026-10-19T10:34:53+00:00IFS Ensemble: 44.0% · 2026-10-19T07:32:34+00:00IFS Ensemble: 44.0% · 2026-10-19T08:19:20+00:00IFS Ensemble: 44.0% · 2026-10-19T09:04:26+00:00IFS Ensemble: 44.0% · 2026-10-19T09:49:31+00:00IFS Ensemble: 44.0% · 2026-10-19T10:34:53+00:00WeatherNext 2: 94.4% · 2026-10-19T07:32:34+00:00WeatherNext 2: 94.4% · 2026-10-19T08:19:20+00:00WeatherNext 2: 94.4% · 2026-10-19T09:04:26+00:00WeatherNext 2: 94.4% · 2026-10-19T09:49:31+00:00WeatherNext 2: 94.4% · 2026-10-19T10:34:53+00:00IFS HRES: 77.6% · 2026-10-19T07:32:34+00:00IFS HRES: 77.6% · 2026-10-19T08:19:20+00:00IFS HRES: 77.6% · 2026-10-19T09:04:26+00:00IFS HRES: 77.6% · 2026-10-19T09:49:31+00:00IFS HRES: 77.6% · 2026-10-19T10:34:53+00:00ICON: 25.5% · 2026-10-19T07:32:34+00:00ICON: 25.5% · 2026-10-19T08:19:20+00:00ICON: 25.5% · 2026-10-19T09:04:26+00:00ICON: 25.5% · 2026-10-19T09:49:31+00:00ICON: 25.5% · 2026-10-19T10:34:53+00:0010-19 07:3210-19 09:0410-19 10:34
AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON
2026-10-19T10:34:53+00:00 · UTC
View the forecast data
UTCAIFSEPSWN2HRESICON
2026-10-19T07:32:34+00:0093.7%44.0%94.4%77.6%25.5%
2026-10-19T08:19:20+00:0093.7%44.0%94.4%77.6%25.5%
2026-10-19T09:04:26+00:0093.7%44.0%94.4%77.6%25.5%
2026-10-19T09:49:31+00:0093.7%44.0%94.4%77.6%25.5%
2026-10-19T10:34:53+00:0093.7%44.0%94.4%77.6%25.5%
THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODELYESMEANSPREAD σINITIALIZATION UTCBRIER ↓
WeatherNext 294%75.2°F5.5°F2026-10-18 18:00Pending
AIFS Single94%75.3°F5.8°F2026-10-19 00:00Pending
IFS HRES78%71.4°F6.5°F2026-10-19 00:00Pending
National Blend55%67.0°F4.4°F2026-10-19 00:00Pending
IFS Ensemble44%65.9°F4.0°F2026-10-18 00:00Pending
ICON26%59.9°F10.0°F2026-10-19 00:00Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 67°F · KBWI

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KBWI-20261026-TMAX-GE67
Opened Oct 19 · 07:32 UTC

Original listing: Baltimore high ≥ 67°F · Mon Oct 26

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗