KBWI / Mon Oct 26 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Baltimore, MDHigh ≥ 67°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST74%Oct 19 · 10:34 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

94%

94%

78%

44%

26%

Consensus

74%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

WN2YES 59.9¢Risks 59.95u

ICONNO 40.1¢Risks 40.05u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

WN2 +40.05u · ICON −40.05u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00	7.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00	70.8%	—	—	—	—	6.4%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00	24.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00	56.4%	—	—	—	—	42.6%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00	5.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00	39.5%	—	—	—	—	40.0%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00	37.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00	97.4%	—	—	—	—	55.8%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00	78.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00	42.6%	—	—	—	—	41.0%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00	36.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00	25.7%	—	—	—	—	39.5%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00	59.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00	37.5%	—	—	—	—	39.0%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00	22.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00	75.6%	—	—	—	—	41.0%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00	91.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00	51.6%	—	—	—	—	42.6%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00	37.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00	53.3%	—	—	—	—	37.5%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00	50.0%	—	4.5%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00	49.4%	—	—	—	—	41.0%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00	37.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00	30.9%	—	—	—	—	35.1%
2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00	64.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00	28.2%	—	74.8%	—	—	36.3%
2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00	72.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00	72.5%	—	30.2%	—	—	41.9%
2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00	82.4%	—	63.2%	—	—	—
2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00	86.3%	—	11.3%	—	—	59.0%
2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00	86.7%	—	67.9%	—	—	—
2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00	82.9%	2.9%	73.5%	—	—	55.4%
2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00	79.2%	—	68.6%	—	—	—
2026-10-19T12:00:00+00:00	82.5%	72.5%	50.0%	8.2%	—	56.3%
2026-10-19T18:00:00+00:00	80.6%	—	73.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-20T00:00:00+00:00	76.8%	90.0%	78.5%	46.4%	53.6%	63.6%
2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00	71.3%	—	75.0%	—	—	0.0%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
WeatherNext 2	94%	75.2°F	5.5°F	2026-10-18 18:00	Pending
AIFS Single	94%	75.3°F	5.8°F	2026-10-19 00:00	Pending
IFS HRES	78%	71.4°F	6.5°F	2026-10-19 00:00	Pending
National Blend	55%	67.0°F	4.4°F	2026-10-19 00:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	44%	65.9°F	4.0°F	2026-10-18 00:00	Pending
ICON	26%	59.9°F	10.0°F	2026-10-19 00:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 67°F · KBWI

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KBWI-20261026-TMAX-GE67
Opened Oct 19 · 07:32 UTC

Original listing: Baltimore high ≥ 67°F · Mon Oct 26

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗