KBWI / Mon Oct 26 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Baltimore, MDHigh ≥ 68°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST78%Oct 20 · 04:03 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

96%

89%

76%

74%

52%

Consensus

78%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

WN2YES 74.0¢Risks 74.05u

EPSNO 26.0¢Risks 25.95u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

WN2 +25.95u · EPS −25.95u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-20T04:03:43+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	EPS	WN2	HRES	ICON
2026-10-19T11:20:35+00:00	91.3%	52.3%	91.8%	72.7%	22.4%
2026-10-19T12:06:26+00:00	91.3%	52.3%	91.8%	72.7%	22.4%
2026-10-19T12:51:48+00:00	91.3%	52.3%	91.8%	72.7%	22.4%
2026-10-19T13:36:54+00:00	88.5%	52.3%	91.8%	72.7%	22.4%
2026-10-19T14:27:57+00:00	88.5%	52.3%	91.8%	72.8%	22.4%
2026-10-19T15:13:14+00:00	88.5%	52.3%	91.8%	72.8%	22.4%
2026-10-19T15:59:05+00:00	88.5%	52.3%	91.8%	72.8%	22.4%
2026-10-19T16:44:12+00:00	88.5%	52.3%	91.8%	72.8%	22.4%
2026-10-19T17:29:26+00:00	88.5%	52.3%	95.4%	72.8%	22.4%
2026-10-19T18:14:36+00:00	88.5%	52.3%	95.4%	72.8%	22.4%
2026-10-19T18:59:46+00:00	88.5%	52.3%	95.4%	72.8%	22.4%
2026-10-19T19:45:25+00:00	90.4%	52.3%	95.4%	74.3%	75.7%
2026-10-19T20:30:36+00:00	90.4%	52.3%	95.4%	74.3%	75.7%
2026-10-19T21:15:49+00:00	90.4%	52.3%	95.4%	74.3%	75.7%
2026-10-19T22:00:57+00:00	90.4%	52.3%	95.4%	74.3%	75.7%
2026-10-19T22:46:09+00:00	90.4%	52.3%	95.4%	74.3%	75.7%
2026-10-19T23:31:24+00:00	90.4%	52.3%	95.8%	74.3%	75.7%
2026-10-20T00:16:41+00:00	90.4%	52.3%	95.8%	74.3%	75.7%
2026-10-20T01:02:32+00:00	90.4%	52.3%	95.8%	74.3%	75.7%
2026-10-20T01:47:42+00:00	88.9%	52.3%	95.8%	74.3%	75.7%
2026-10-20T02:32:53+00:00	88.9%	52.3%	95.8%	74.3%	75.7%
2026-10-20T03:18:01+00:00	88.9%	52.3%	95.8%	74.3%	75.7%
2026-10-20T04:03:43+00:00	88.9%	52.3%	95.8%	74.3%	75.7%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
WeatherNext 2	96%	76.3°F	5.1°F	2026-10-19 12:00	Pending
AIFS Single	89%	74.5°F	5.7°F	2026-10-19 18:00	Pending
ICON	76%	74.5°F	10.0°F	2026-10-19 12:00	Pending
IFS HRES	74%	71.7°F	6.4°F	2026-10-19 12:00	Pending
National Blend	55%	68.0°F	4.4°F	2026-10-19 06:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	52%	67.7°F	3.4°F	2026-10-19 00:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 68°F · KBWI

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KBWI-20261026-TMAX-GE68
Opened Oct 19 · 11:20 UTC

Original listing: Baltimore high ≥ 68°F · Mon Oct 26

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗