KBWI / Mon Oct 26 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Baltimore, MDHigh ≥ 68°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST78%Oct 20 · 04:03 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

96%

89%

76%

74%

52%

Consensus

78%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

WN2YES 74.0¢Risks 74.05u

EPSNO 26.0¢Risks 25.95u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

WN2 +25.95u · EPS −25.95u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00	5.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00	66.0%	—	—	—	—	4.9%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00	20.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00	51.1%	—	—	—	—	37.5%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00	4.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00	34.5%	—	—	—	—	34.9%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00	32.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00	96.5%	—	—	—	—	50.5%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00	74.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00	37.5%	—	—	—	—	35.9%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00	31.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00	21.6%	—	—	—	—	34.5%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00	54.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00	32.5%	—	—	—	—	34.0%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00	18.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00	71.2%	—	—	—	—	35.9%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00	88.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00	46.3%	—	—	—	—	37.4%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00	32.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00	47.8%	—	—	—	—	32.5%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00	44.4%	—	3.3%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00	43.8%	—	—	—	—	35.6%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00	31.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00	25.9%	—	—	—	—	29.8%
2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00	58.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00	23.3%	—	69.8%	—	—	30.8%
2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00	67.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00	67.0%	—	24.9%	—	—	35.9%
2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00	77.9%	—	57.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00	82.4%	—	8.5%	—	—	52.6%
2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00	82.8%	—	61.8%	—	—	—
2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00	78.2%	1.9%	67.6%	—	—	48.6%
2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00	73.9%	—	62.2%	—	—	—
2026-10-19T12:00:00+00:00	77.6%	66.4%	43.0%	5.8%	—	49.3%
2026-10-19T18:00:00+00:00	75.3%	—	66.7%	—	—	—
2026-10-20T00:00:00+00:00	70.9%	86.5%	72.8%	39.2%	46.4%	56.6%
2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00	64.6%	—	68.7%	—	—	0.0%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
WeatherNext 2	96%	76.3°F	5.1°F	2026-10-19 12:00	Pending
AIFS Single	89%	74.5°F	5.7°F	2026-10-19 18:00	Pending
ICON	76%	74.5°F	10.0°F	2026-10-19 12:00	Pending
IFS HRES	74%	71.7°F	6.4°F	2026-10-19 12:00	Pending
National Blend	55%	68.0°F	4.4°F	2026-10-19 06:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	52%	67.7°F	3.4°F	2026-10-19 00:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 68°F · KBWI

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KBWI-20261026-TMAX-GE68
Opened Oct 19 · 11:20 UTC

Original listing: Baltimore high ≥ 68°F · Mon Oct 26

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗