KBWI / Mon Oct 26 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Baltimore, MDHigh ≥ 75°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST23%Oct 20 · 13:55 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

64%

61%

44%

29%

Consensus

23%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

ICONYES 34.8¢Risks 34.75u

EPSNO 65.2¢Risks 65.25u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

ICON +65.25u · EPS −65.25u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00	0.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00	30.1%	—	—	—	—	0.5%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00	3.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00	18.2%	—	—	—	—	10.5%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00	0.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00	9.1%	—	—	—	—	9.3%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00	8.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00	81.1%	—	—	—	—	17.9%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00	39.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00	10.5%	—	—	—	—	9.8%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00	7.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00	4.3%	—	—	—	—	9.1%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00	20.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00	8.3%	—	—	—	—	8.9%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00	3.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00	35.4%	—	—	—	—	9.8%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00	61.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00	15.2%	—	—	—	—	10.4%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00	7.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00	15.4%	—	—	—	—	7.8%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00	13.1%	—	0.2%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00	12.4%	—	—	—	—	8.6%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00	6.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00	4.7%	—	—	—	—	5.9%
2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00	20.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00	3.6%	—	29.2%	—	—	5.9%
2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00	26.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00	25.4%	—	3.8%	—	—	7.1%
2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00	36.2%	—	17.2%	—	—	—
2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00	41.6%	—	0.6%	—	—	14.1%
2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00	41.4%	—	19.4%	—	—	—
2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00	34.2%	0.1%	23.3%	—	—	11.1%
2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00	28.4%	—	18.4%	—	—	—
2026-10-19T12:00:00+00:00	31.7%	20.9%	7.9%	0.2%	—	10.5%
2026-10-19T18:00:00+00:00	28.3%	—	20.4%	—	—	—
2026-10-20T00:00:00+00:00	23.2%	42.7%	24.9%	5.9%	8.4%	13.2%
2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00	17.4%	—	20.5%	—	—	0.0%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
ICON	64%	77.1°F	7.1°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	61%	75.8°F	4.7°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
AIFS Single	44%	73.7°F	5.4°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
IFS HRES	29%	70.8°F	6.6°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
NWS forecast	28%	71.0°F	5.9°F	2026-10-20 03:00	Pending
National Blend	9%	70.0°F	3.3°F	2026-10-20 06:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	5%	68.5°F	3.7°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 75°F · KBWI

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KBWI-20261026-TMAX-GE75
Opened Oct 19 · 07:32 UTC

Original listing: Baltimore runs hot-for-here: 75°F+ · Mon Oct 26

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗