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KCHS / Sun Oct 18 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Charleston, SCHigh ≥ 62°F

FINAL OUTCOMEYESOct 17 · 14:39 UTC
THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%
WN2
99%
EPS
97%
HRES
95%
AIFS
93%
ICON
85%
Consensus
96%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED
WN2YES 92.0¢Risks 46.00u
VS
ICONNO 8.0¢Risks 4.00u

50 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

WN2 +4.00u · ICON −4.00u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

RecordedReconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

0%25%50%75%100%AIFS Single: 91.2% · 2026-10-17T04:41:18+00:00AIFS Single: 91.2% · 2026-10-17T05:28:21+00:00AIFS Single: 91.2% · 2026-10-17T06:13:34+00:00AIFS Single: 91.2% · 2026-10-17T06:58:44+00:00AIFS Single: 93.9% · 2026-10-17T07:44:08+00:00AIFS Single: 93.9% · 2026-10-17T08:30:37+00:00AIFS Single: 93.9% · 2026-10-17T09:16:31+00:00AIFS Single: 93.9% · 2026-10-17T10:01:48+00:00AIFS Single: 93.9% · 2026-10-17T10:46:53+00:00AIFS Single: 93.9% · 2026-10-17T11:32:01+00:00AIFS Single: 93.9% · 2026-10-17T12:17:26+00:00AIFS Single: 93.9% · 2026-10-17T13:02:32+00:00AIFS Single: 93.2% · 2026-10-17T13:47:49+00:00AIFS Single: 93.3% · 2026-10-17T14:39:15+00:00IFS Ensemble: 65.8% · 2026-10-17T04:41:18+00:00IFS Ensemble: 65.8% · 2026-10-17T05:28:21+00:00IFS Ensemble: 65.8% · 2026-10-17T06:13:34+00:00IFS Ensemble: 65.8% · 2026-10-17T06:58:44+00:00IFS Ensemble: 65.8% · 2026-10-17T07:44:08+00:00IFS Ensemble: 65.8% · 2026-10-17T08:30:37+00:00IFS Ensemble: 65.8% · 2026-10-17T09:16:31+00:00IFS Ensemble: 65.8% · 2026-10-17T10:01:48+00:00IFS Ensemble: 65.8% · 2026-10-17T10:46:53+00:00IFS Ensemble: 96.7% · 2026-10-17T11:32:01+00:00IFS Ensemble: 96.7% · 2026-10-17T12:17:26+00:00IFS Ensemble: 96.7% · 2026-10-17T13:02:32+00:00IFS Ensemble: 96.7% · 2026-10-17T13:47:49+00:00IFS Ensemble: 96.7% · 2026-10-17T14:39:15+00:00WeatherNext 2: 98.3% · 2026-10-17T04:41:18+00:00WeatherNext 2: 98.5% · 2026-10-17T05:28:21+00:00WeatherNext 2: 98.5% · 2026-10-17T06:13:34+00:00WeatherNext 2: 98.5% · 2026-10-17T06:58:44+00:00WeatherNext 2: 98.5% · 2026-10-17T07:44:08+00:00WeatherNext 2: 98.5% · 2026-10-17T08:30:37+00:00WeatherNext 2: 98.5% · 2026-10-17T09:16:31+00:00WeatherNext 2: 98.5% · 2026-10-17T10:01:48+00:00WeatherNext 2: 98.5% · 2026-10-17T10:46:53+00:00WeatherNext 2: 98.7% · 2026-10-17T11:32:01+00:00WeatherNext 2: 98.7% · 2026-10-17T12:17:26+00:00WeatherNext 2: 98.7% · 2026-10-17T13:02:32+00:00WeatherNext 2: 98.7% · 2026-10-17T13:47:49+00:00WeatherNext 2: 98.7% · 2026-10-17T14:39:15+00:00IFS HRES: 91.8% · 2026-10-17T04:41:18+00:00IFS HRES: 91.8% · 2026-10-17T05:28:21+00:00IFS HRES: 91.8% · 2026-10-17T06:13:34+00:00IFS HRES: 91.8% · 2026-10-17T06:58:44+00:00IFS HRES: 94.7% · 2026-10-17T07:44:08+00:00IFS HRES: 94.7% · 2026-10-17T08:30:37+00:00IFS HRES: 94.7% · 2026-10-17T09:16:31+00:00IFS HRES: 94.7% · 2026-10-17T10:01:48+00:00IFS HRES: 94.7% · 2026-10-17T10:46:53+00:00IFS HRES: 94.7% · 2026-10-17T11:32:01+00:00IFS HRES: 94.7% · 2026-10-17T12:17:26+00:00IFS HRES: 94.7% · 2026-10-17T13:02:32+00:00IFS HRES: 94.7% · 2026-10-17T13:47:49+00:00IFS HRES: 94.7% · 2026-10-17T14:39:15+00:00ICON: 87.7% · 2026-10-17T04:41:18+00:00ICON: 87.7% · 2026-10-17T05:28:21+00:00ICON: 87.7% · 2026-10-17T06:13:34+00:00ICON: 87.7% · 2026-10-17T06:58:44+00:00ICON: 85.3% · 2026-10-17T07:44:08+00:00ICON: 85.3% · 2026-10-17T08:30:37+00:00ICON: 85.3% · 2026-10-17T09:16:31+00:00ICON: 85.3% · 2026-10-17T10:01:48+00:00ICON: 85.3% · 2026-10-17T10:46:53+00:00ICON: 85.3% · 2026-10-17T11:32:01+00:00ICON: 85.3% · 2026-10-17T12:17:26+00:00ICON: 85.3% · 2026-10-17T13:02:32+00:00ICON: 85.3% · 2026-10-17T13:47:49+00:00ICON: 85.3% · 2026-10-17T14:39:15+00:0010-17 04:4110-17 10:0110-17 14:39
AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON
2026-10-17T14:39:15+00:00 · UTC
View the forecast data
UTCAIFSEPSWN2HRESICON
2026-10-17T04:41:18+00:0091.2%65.8%98.3%91.8%87.7%
2026-10-17T05:28:21+00:0091.2%65.8%98.5%91.8%87.7%
2026-10-17T06:13:34+00:0091.2%65.8%98.5%91.8%87.7%
2026-10-17T06:58:44+00:0091.2%65.8%98.5%91.8%87.7%
2026-10-17T07:44:08+00:0093.9%65.8%98.5%94.7%85.3%
2026-10-17T08:30:37+00:0093.9%65.8%98.5%94.7%85.3%
2026-10-17T09:16:31+00:0093.9%65.8%98.5%94.7%85.3%
2026-10-17T10:01:48+00:0093.9%65.8%98.5%94.7%85.3%
2026-10-17T10:46:53+00:0093.9%65.8%98.5%94.7%85.3%
2026-10-17T11:32:01+00:0093.9%96.7%98.7%94.7%85.3%
2026-10-17T12:17:26+00:0093.9%96.7%98.7%94.7%85.3%
2026-10-17T13:02:32+00:0093.9%96.7%98.7%94.7%85.3%
2026-10-17T13:47:49+00:0093.2%96.7%98.7%94.7%85.3%
2026-10-17T14:39:15+00:0093.3%96.7%98.7%94.7%85.3%
THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODELYESMEANSPREAD σINITIALIZATION UTCBRIER ↓
WeatherNext 299%68.0°F2.9°F2026-10-17 00:000.0002
IFS Ensemble97%65.9°F2.4°F2026-10-17 00:000.0011
IFS HRES95%67.5°F3.7°F2026-10-17 00:000.0028
AIFS Single93%67.4°F3.9°F2026-10-17 06:000.0045
National Blend86%65.0°F3.3°F2026-10-17 06:000.0210
ICON85%65.2°F3.5°F2026-10-17 00:000.0216
NWS forecast56%62.0°F3.1°F2026-10-17 03:000.1901

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 62°F · KCHS

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KCHS-20261018-TMAX-GE62
Opened Oct 17 · 04:41 UTC

Original listing: Charleston high ≥ 62°F · Sun Oct 18

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗