KCHS / Sun Oct 18 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Charleston, SCHigh ≥ 62°F

FINAL OUTCOMEYESOct 17 · 14:39 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

99%

97%

95%

93%

85%

Consensus

96%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

WN2YES 92.0¢Risks 46.00u

ICONNO 8.0¢Risks 4.00u

50 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

WN2 +4.00u · ICON −4.00u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-10-03T06:00:00+00:00	66.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-03T12:00:00+00:00	50.0%	—	—	—	—	70.3%
2026-10-03T18:00:00+00:00	93.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-04T00:00:00+00:00	76.4%	—	—	—	—	97.8%
2026-10-04T06:00:00+00:00	88.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-04T12:00:00+00:00	99.7%	—	—	—	—	98.6%
2026-10-04T18:00:00+00:00	99.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-05T00:00:00+00:00	97.7%	—	—	—	—	98.6%
2026-10-05T06:00:00+00:00	98.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-05T12:00:00+00:00	76.4%	—	—	—	—	96.6%
2026-10-05T18:00:00+00:00	68.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-06T00:00:00+00:00	40.5%	—	—	—	—	97.8%
2026-10-06T06:00:00+00:00	37.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-06T12:00:00+00:00	58.5%	—	—	—	—	94.8%
2026-10-06T18:00:00+00:00	54.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T00:00:00+00:00	95.6%	—	—	—	—	96.9%
2026-10-07T06:00:00+00:00	96.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T12:00:00+00:00	99.7%	—	—	—	—	97.0%
2026-10-07T18:00:00+00:00	96.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T00:00:00+00:00	93.4%	—	—	—	—	95.4%
2026-10-08T06:00:00+00:00	99.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T12:00:00+00:00	99.9%	—	—	—	—	96.4%
2026-10-08T18:00:00+00:00	48.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T00:00:00+00:00	88.0%	—	—	—	—	95.9%
2026-10-09T06:00:00+00:00	57.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:00	51.8%	—	93.8%	—	—	96.7%
2026-10-09T18:00:00+00:00	40.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:00	54.4%	—	99.5%	—	—	94.8%
2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:00	38.0%	—	90.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00	72.2%	—	97.1%	—	—	95.0%
2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00	73.1%	—	42.1%	—	—	—
2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00	42.6%	—	54.0%	—	—	88.2%
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00	75.0%	—	25.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00	95.1%	78.6%	47.2%	75.4%	—	93.7%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00	97.5%	—	66.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00	97.1%	95.4%	92.1%	95.4%	—	96.7%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00	92.8%	—	91.4%	—	—	—
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00	95.9%	98.4%	96.5%	94.8%	—	95.2%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00	95.2%	—	97.7%	—	—	—
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00	93.8%	93.3%	98.9%	93.8%	—	94.1%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00	89.4%	40.3%	99.4%	—	—	—
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00	94.2%	97.0%	99.4%	88.0%	—	92.0%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00	74.7%	93.0%	97.9%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00	76.6%	91.7%	99.5%	19.6%	—	77.2%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00	77.1%	88.4%	99.1%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00	69.5%	68.6%	87.6%	16.0%	—	67.0%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00	76.9%	87.3%	96.8%	—	—	54.7%
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00	59.6%	82.3%	96.6%	36.6%	—	64.3%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00	86.5%	88.1%	95.1%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00	63.1%	87.7%	95.1%	95.8%	—	73.2%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00	65.5%	87.4%	91.2%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00	64.9%	91.0%	84.5%	92.3%	—	55.5%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00	63.3%	91.3%	82.5%	1.6%	—	73.3%
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00	65.9%	90.0%	89.0%	93.2%	—	91.0%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00	70.7%	93.4%	94.5%	90.8%	—	88.0%
2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00	77.3%	94.1%	95.1%	87.6%	51.2%	90.5%
2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00	77.2%	91.8%	97.4%	91.8%	—	91.3%
2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00	77.0%	95.0%	98.4%	92.6%	55.4%	93.0%
2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00	75.8%	93.3%	98.0%	95.7%	—	95.0%
2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00	81.8%	93.2%	99.6%	96.8%	65.5%	96.5%
2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00	76.4%	88.0%	99.7%	98.7%	—	94.8%
2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00	90.4%	84.8%	99.9%	98.7%	76.2%	97.4%
2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00	14.1%	94.7%	99.9%	99.1%	—	—

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
WeatherNext 2	99%	68.0°F	2.9°F	2026-10-17 00:00	0.0002
IFS Ensemble	97%	65.9°F	2.4°F	2026-10-17 00:00	0.0011
IFS HRES	95%	67.5°F	3.7°F	2026-10-17 00:00	0.0028
AIFS Single	93%	67.4°F	3.9°F	2026-10-17 06:00	0.0045
National Blend	86%	65.0°F	3.3°F	2026-10-17 06:00	0.0210
ICON	85%	65.2°F	3.5°F	2026-10-17 00:00	0.0216
NWS forecast	56%	62.0°F	3.1°F	2026-10-17 03:00	0.1901

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 62°F · KCHS

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KCHS-20261018-TMAX-GE62
Opened Oct 17 · 04:41 UTC

Original listing: Charleston high ≥ 62°F · Sun Oct 18

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗