KCHS / Sun Oct 18 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Charleston, SCHigh ≥ 64°F

FINAL OUTCOMEYESOct 17 · 03:55 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

93%

82%

80%

72%

43%

Consensus

76%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

WN2YES 68.1¢Risks 68.10u

EPSNO 31.9¢Risks 31.90u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

WN2 +31.90u · EPS −31.90u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-17T03:55:36+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	EPS	WN2	HRES	ICON
2026-10-12T04:01:15+00:00	98.7%	93.6%	97.5%	96.1%	76.1%
2026-10-12T04:47:13+00:00	98.7%	93.6%	97.5%	96.1%	76.1%
2026-10-12T05:32:20+00:00	98.7%	93.6%	98.3%	96.1%	76.1%
2026-10-12T06:17:27+00:00	98.7%	93.6%	98.3%	96.1%	76.1%
2026-10-12T07:02:33+00:00	98.7%	93.6%	98.3%	96.1%	76.1%
2026-10-12T07:47:55+00:00	98.8%	93.6%	98.3%	96.4%	93.7%
2026-10-12T08:34:24+00:00	98.8%	93.6%	98.3%	96.4%	93.7%
2026-10-12T09:19:37+00:00	98.8%	93.6%	98.3%	96.4%	93.7%
2026-10-12T10:04:57+00:00	98.8%	93.6%	98.3%	96.4%	93.7%
2026-10-12T10:50:07+00:00	98.8%	93.6%	98.3%	96.4%	93.7%
2026-10-12T11:35:25+00:00	98.8%	93.6%	99.6%	96.4%	93.7%
2026-10-12T12:20:47+00:00	98.8%	97.6%	99.6%	96.4%	93.7%
2026-10-12T13:05:54+00:00	98.8%	97.6%	99.6%	96.4%	93.7%
2026-10-12T13:51:04+00:00	96.3%	97.6%	99.6%	96.4%	93.7%
2026-10-12T14:41:16+00:00	96.3%	97.4%	99.6%	96.4%	93.6%
2026-10-15T15:33:52+00:00	92.3%	76.8%	92.7%	71.2%	73.6%
2026-10-15T16:19:57+00:00	92.3%	76.8%	92.7%	71.2%	73.6%
2026-10-15T17:05:20+00:00	92.3%	76.8%	97.3%	71.2%	73.6%
2026-10-15T17:50:38+00:00	92.3%	76.8%	97.3%	71.2%	73.6%
2026-10-15T18:35:58+00:00	92.3%	76.8%	97.3%	71.2%	73.6%
2026-10-15T19:21:06+00:00	92.3%	76.8%	97.3%	71.2%	73.6%
2026-10-15T20:06:14+00:00	76.6%	76.8%	97.3%	69.7%	79.0%
2026-10-15T20:51:27+00:00	76.6%	76.8%	97.3%	69.7%	79.0%
2026-10-15T21:36:42+00:00	76.6%	76.8%	97.3%	69.7%	79.0%
2026-10-15T22:21:49+00:00	76.6%	76.8%	97.3%	69.7%	79.0%
2026-10-15T23:07:01+00:00	76.6%	76.8%	94.2%	69.7%	79.0%
2026-10-15T23:52:13+00:00	76.6%	76.8%	94.2%	69.7%	79.0%
2026-10-16T00:37:21+00:00	76.6%	76.8%	94.2%	69.7%	79.0%
2026-10-16T01:22:41+00:00	78.0%	76.8%	94.2%	69.7%	79.0%
2026-10-16T02:08:17+00:00	78.0%	76.8%	94.2%	69.7%	79.0%
2026-10-16T02:53:28+00:00	78.0%	76.8%	94.2%	69.7%	79.0%
2026-10-16T03:38:40+00:00	78.0%	76.8%	94.2%	69.7%	79.0%
2026-10-16T04:23:58+00:00	78.0%	76.8%	94.2%	69.7%	79.0%
2026-10-16T05:10:24+00:00	78.0%	76.8%	93.5%	69.7%	79.0%
2026-10-16T05:55:52+00:00	78.0%	76.8%	93.5%	69.7%	79.0%
2026-10-16T06:41:02+00:00	78.0%	76.8%	93.5%	69.7%	79.0%
2026-10-16T07:26:13+00:00	76.9%	76.8%	93.5%	69.7%	76.9%
2026-10-16T08:11:22+00:00	76.9%	76.8%	93.5%	69.7%	76.9%
2026-10-16T08:56:33+00:00	76.9%	76.8%	93.5%	69.7%	76.9%
2026-10-16T09:41:41+00:00	76.9%	76.8%	93.5%	69.7%	76.9%
2026-10-16T10:26:47+00:00	76.9%	76.8%	93.5%	69.7%	76.9%
2026-10-16T11:12:11+00:00	76.9%	41.9%	89.6%	69.7%	76.9%
2026-10-16T11:57:36+00:00	76.9%	41.9%	89.6%	69.7%	76.9%
2026-10-16T12:42:48+00:00	76.9%	41.9%	89.6%	69.7%	76.9%
2026-10-16T13:28:09+00:00	76.2%	41.9%	89.6%	65.2%	76.9%
2026-10-16T14:19:41+00:00	76.2%	41.9%	89.6%	65.2%	76.9%
2026-10-16T15:05:16+00:00	76.2%	43.1%	89.6%	65.2%	76.9%
2026-10-16T15:50:54+00:00	76.2%	43.1%	89.6%	65.2%	76.9%
2026-10-16T16:36:09+00:00	76.2%	43.1%	89.6%	65.2%	76.9%
2026-10-16T17:21:17+00:00	76.2%	43.1%	93.9%	65.2%	76.9%
2026-10-16T18:06:36+00:00	76.2%	43.1%	93.9%	65.2%	76.9%
2026-10-16T18:51:42+00:00	76.2%	43.1%	93.9%	65.2%	76.9%
2026-10-16T19:36:55+00:00	76.9%	43.1%	93.9%	65.2%	72.3%
2026-10-16T20:22:22+00:00	76.9%	43.1%	93.9%	65.2%	72.3%
2026-10-16T21:07:45+00:00	76.9%	43.1%	93.9%	65.2%	72.3%
2026-10-16T21:52:51+00:00	76.9%	43.1%	93.9%	65.2%	72.3%
2026-10-16T22:37:59+00:00	76.9%	43.1%	93.9%	81.7%	72.3%
2026-10-16T23:23:22+00:00	76.9%	43.1%	93.1%	81.7%	72.3%
2026-10-17T00:08:59+00:00	76.9%	43.1%	93.1%	81.7%	72.3%
2026-10-17T00:54:56+00:00	76.9%	43.1%	93.1%	81.7%	72.3%
2026-10-17T01:40:05+00:00	80.5%	43.1%	93.1%	81.7%	72.3%
2026-10-17T02:25:18+00:00	80.5%	43.1%	93.1%	81.7%	72.3%
2026-10-17T03:10:27+00:00	80.5%	43.1%	93.1%	81.7%	72.3%
2026-10-17T03:55:36+00:00	80.5%	43.1%	93.1%	81.7%	72.3%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
WeatherNext 2	93%	68.1°F	3.1°F	2026-10-16 12:00	0.0048
IFS HRES	82%	67.2°F	4.1°F	2026-10-16 12:00	0.0335
AIFS Single	80%	67.0°F	4.1°F	2026-10-16 18:00	0.0380
ICON	72%	65.6°F	3.5°F	2026-10-16 12:00	0.0767
NWS forecast	56%	64.0°F	3.4°F	2026-10-16 14:00	0.1954
National Blend	46%	63.0°F	5.4°F	2026-10-16 06:00	0.2884
IFS Ensemble	43%	62.9°F	3.4°F	2026-10-16 00:00	0.3238

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 64°F · KCHS

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KCHS-20261018-TMAX-GE64
Opened Oct 12 · 04:01 UTC

Original listing: Charleston high ≥ 64°F · Sun Oct 18

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗