KCHS / Sun Oct 18 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Charleston, SCHigh ≥ 64°F

FINAL OUTCOMEYESOct 17 · 03:55 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

93%

82%

80%

72%

43%

Consensus

76%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

WN2YES 68.1¢Risks 68.10u

EPSNO 31.9¢Risks 31.90u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

WN2 +31.90u · EPS −31.90u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-10-03T06:00:00+00:00	56.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-03T12:00:00+00:00	39.5%	—	—	—	—	60.5%
2026-10-03T18:00:00+00:00	89.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-04T00:00:00+00:00	67.5%	—	—	—	—	96.0%
2026-10-04T06:00:00+00:00	82.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-04T12:00:00+00:00	99.3%	—	—	—	—	97.3%
2026-10-04T18:00:00+00:00	99.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-05T00:00:00+00:00	95.7%	—	—	—	—	97.3%
2026-10-05T06:00:00+00:00	96.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-05T12:00:00+00:00	67.5%	—	—	—	—	94.1%
2026-10-05T18:00:00+00:00	57.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-06T00:00:00+00:00	30.6%	—	—	—	—	96.0%
2026-10-06T06:00:00+00:00	27.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-06T12:00:00+00:00	47.9%	—	—	—	—	91.3%
2026-10-06T18:00:00+00:00	44.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T00:00:00+00:00	92.5%	—	—	—	—	94.5%
2026-10-07T06:00:00+00:00	93.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T12:00:00+00:00	99.3%	—	—	—	—	94.7%
2026-10-07T18:00:00+00:00	93.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T00:00:00+00:00	89.0%	—	—	—	—	92.0%
2026-10-08T06:00:00+00:00	98.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T12:00:00+00:00	99.7%	—	—	—	—	93.4%
2026-10-08T18:00:00+00:00	37.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T00:00:00+00:00	81.1%	—	—	—	—	92.5%
2026-10-09T06:00:00+00:00	45.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:00	39.8%	—	89.1%	—	—	93.8%
2026-10-09T18:00:00+00:00	29.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:00	41.9%	—	98.9%	—	—	90.4%
2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:00	26.6%	—	83.2%	—	—	—
2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00	60.3%	—	94.2%	—	—	90.7%
2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00	61.1%	—	29.7%	—	—	—
2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00	30.0%	—	40.6%	—	—	80.2%
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00	62.9%	—	15.4%	—	—	—
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00	90.4%	67.0%	33.6%	63.1%	—	88.1%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00	94.5%	—	52.1%	—	—	—
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00	93.6%	90.7%	85.2%	90.7%	—	92.9%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00	86.1%	—	84.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00	91.3%	96.1%	92.4%	89.3%	—	90.0%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00	89.8%	—	94.6%	—	—	—
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00	87.3%	86.4%	97.0%	87.3%	—	87.7%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00	79.9%	25.6%	98.2%	—	—	—
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00	87.5%	92.9%	98.2%	77.5%	—	83.8%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00	59.3%	85.3%	94.6%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00	61.3%	82.8%	98.3%	9.7%	—	62.1%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00	61.5%	77.1%	97.1%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00	51.8%	50.9%	75.6%	7.3%	—	49.1%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00	60.3%	74.7%	91.6%	—	—	36.1%
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00	40.4%	67.0%	91.0%	20.3%	—	45.1%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00	72.6%	75.1%	87.6%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00	42.8%	74.1%	87.2%	88.7%	—	54.1%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00	44.7%	73.0%	79.5%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00	43.5%	78.7%	67.9%	81.0%	—	34.1%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00	41.0%	78.6%	64.3%	0.3%	—	52.2%
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00	43.0%	75.8%	74.0%	81.7%	—	77.6%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00	47.6%	81.7%	84.0%	76.6%	—	71.7%
2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00	55.0%	82.6%	84.9%	70.2%	27.6%	75.4%
2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00	53.9%	77.2%	90.2%	77.2%	—	76.2%
2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00	52.7%	83.5%	93.0%	78.0%	29.5%	79.0%
2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00	50.0%	78.9%	91.3%	84.5%	—	82.7%
2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00	57.2%	77.8%	97.3%	87.0%	37.2%	86.2%
2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00	48.5%	66.2%	97.8%	93.0%	—	80.8%
2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00	69.7%	59.4%	98.9%	92.3%	46.8%	87.5%
2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00	2.8%	78.5%	98.6%	93.7%	—	—

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
WeatherNext 2	93%	68.1°F	3.1°F	2026-10-16 12:00	0.0048
IFS HRES	82%	67.2°F	4.1°F	2026-10-16 12:00	0.0335
AIFS Single	80%	67.0°F	4.1°F	2026-10-16 18:00	0.0380
ICON	72%	65.6°F	3.5°F	2026-10-16 12:00	0.0767
NWS forecast	56%	64.0°F	3.4°F	2026-10-16 14:00	0.1954
National Blend	46%	63.0°F	5.4°F	2026-10-16 06:00	0.2884
IFS Ensemble	43%	62.9°F	3.4°F	2026-10-16 00:00	0.3238

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 64°F · KCHS

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KCHS-20261018-TMAX-GE64
Opened Oct 12 · 04:01 UTC

Original listing: Charleston high ≥ 64°F · Sun Oct 18

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗