KCHS / Sun Oct 18 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Charleston, SCHigh ≥ 66°F

FINAL OUTCOMEYESOct 18 · 07:15 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

80%

70%

67%

58%

46%

Consensus

66%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

WN2YES 62.5¢Risks 62.50u

ICONNO 37.5¢Risks 37.50u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

WN2 +37.50u · ICON −37.50u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-18T07:15:32+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	EPS	WN2	HRES	ICON
2026-10-15T04:01:56+00:00	73.6%	67.8%	73.2%	32.3%	48.3%
2026-10-15T04:47:52+00:00	73.6%	67.8%	73.2%	32.3%	48.3%
2026-10-15T05:33:16+00:00	73.6%	67.8%	82.7%	32.3%	48.3%
2026-10-15T06:18:26+00:00	73.6%	67.8%	82.7%	32.3%	48.3%
2026-10-15T07:03:34+00:00	73.6%	67.8%	82.7%	32.3%	48.3%
2026-10-15T07:49:16+00:00	58.3%	67.8%	82.7%	54.5%	55.0%
2026-10-15T08:35:49+00:00	58.3%	67.8%	82.7%	54.5%	55.0%
2026-10-15T09:21:43+00:00	58.3%	67.8%	82.7%	54.5%	55.0%
2026-10-15T10:07:29+00:00	58.3%	67.8%	82.7%	54.5%	55.0%
2026-10-15T10:52:49+00:00	58.3%	67.8%	82.7%	54.5%	55.0%
2026-10-15T11:39:10+00:00	58.3%	67.8%	80.5%	54.5%	55.0%
2026-10-15T12:24:49+00:00	58.3%	53.6%	80.5%	54.5%	55.0%
2026-10-15T13:10:10+00:00	58.3%	53.6%	80.5%	54.5%	55.0%
2026-10-15T13:55:48+00:00	83.1%	53.6%	80.5%	54.5%	55.0%
2026-10-15T14:48:23+00:00	83.1%	53.6%	80.5%	54.5%	55.0%
2026-10-17T15:24:31+00:00	68.5%	57.9%	80.5%	70.5%	46.6%
2026-10-17T16:10:30+00:00	68.5%	57.9%	80.5%	70.5%	46.6%
2026-10-17T16:55:38+00:00	68.5%	57.9%	79.5%	70.5%	46.6%
2026-10-17T17:40:47+00:00	68.5%	57.9%	79.5%	70.5%	46.6%
2026-10-17T18:25:55+00:00	68.5%	57.9%	79.5%	70.5%	46.6%
2026-10-17T19:11:02+00:00	68.5%	57.9%	79.5%	70.5%	46.6%
2026-10-17T19:56:10+00:00	67.6%	57.9%	79.5%	70.5%	45.5%
2026-10-17T20:41:26+00:00	67.6%	57.9%	79.5%	70.5%	45.5%
2026-10-17T21:26:36+00:00	67.6%	57.9%	79.5%	70.5%	45.5%
2026-10-17T22:11:52+00:00	67.6%	57.9%	79.5%	70.5%	45.5%
2026-10-17T22:57:00+00:00	67.6%	57.9%	76.5%	70.5%	45.5%
2026-10-17T23:42:11+00:00	67.6%	57.9%	76.5%	70.5%	45.5%
2026-10-18T00:27:22+00:00	67.6%	57.9%	76.5%	70.5%	45.5%
2026-10-18T01:12:51+00:00	67.6%	57.9%	76.5%	70.5%	45.5%
2026-10-18T01:58:11+00:00	66.7%	57.9%	76.5%	70.5%	45.5%
2026-10-18T02:43:19+00:00	66.7%	57.9%	76.5%	70.5%	45.5%
2026-10-18T03:28:27+00:00	66.7%	57.9%	76.5%	70.5%	45.5%
2026-10-18T04:13:49+00:00	66.7%	57.9%	76.5%	70.5%	45.5%
2026-10-18T05:00:12+00:00	66.7%	57.9%	79.5%	70.5%	45.5%
2026-10-18T05:45:18+00:00	66.7%	57.9%	79.5%	70.5%	45.5%
2026-10-18T06:30:25+00:00	66.7%	57.9%	79.5%	70.5%	45.5%
2026-10-18T07:15:32+00:00	66.7%	57.9%	79.5%	70.5%	45.5%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
WeatherNext 2	80%	67.9°F	2.9°F	2026-10-17 18:00	0.0420
IFS HRES	70%	67.5°F	3.7°F	2026-10-17 12:00	0.0870
AIFS Single	67%	67.2°F	3.9°F	2026-10-17 18:00	0.1109
NWS forecast	59%	66.0°F	2.1°F	2026-10-18 03:00	0.1665
National Blend	59%	66.0°F	2.2°F	2026-10-18 00:00	0.1697
IFS Ensemble	58%	66.0°F	2.5°F	2026-10-17 00:00	0.1772
ICON	46%	65.1°F	3.5°F	2026-10-17 12:00	0.2970

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 66°F · KCHS

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KCHS-20261018-TMAX-GE66
Opened Oct 15 · 04:01 UTC

Original listing: Charleston high ≥ 66°F · Sun Oct 18

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗