KCHS / Sun Oct 18 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Charleston, SCHigh ≥ 66°F

FINAL OUTCOMEYESOct 18 · 07:15 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

80%

70%

67%

58%

46%

Consensus

66%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

WN2YES 62.5¢Risks 62.50u

ICONNO 37.5¢Risks 37.50u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

WN2 +37.50u · ICON −37.50u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-10-03T06:00:00+00:00	45.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-03T12:00:00+00:00	29.7%	—	—	—	—	50.0%
2026-10-03T18:00:00+00:00	84.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-04T00:00:00+00:00	57.4%	—	—	—	—	93.1%
2026-10-04T06:00:00+00:00	75.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-04T12:00:00+00:00	98.7%	—	—	—	—	95.1%
2026-10-04T18:00:00+00:00	98.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-05T00:00:00+00:00	92.7%	—	—	—	—	95.2%
2026-10-05T06:00:00+00:00	94.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-05T12:00:00+00:00	57.4%	—	—	—	—	90.2%
2026-10-05T18:00:00+00:00	47.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-06T00:00:00+00:00	22.0%	—	—	—	—	93.1%
2026-10-06T06:00:00+00:00	19.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-06T12:00:00+00:00	37.5%	—	—	—	—	86.3%
2026-10-06T18:00:00+00:00	34.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T00:00:00+00:00	88.0%	—	—	—	—	90.9%
2026-10-07T06:00:00+00:00	90.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T12:00:00+00:00	98.6%	—	—	—	—	91.2%
2026-10-07T18:00:00+00:00	89.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T00:00:00+00:00	82.9%	—	—	—	—	87.1%
2026-10-08T06:00:00+00:00	96.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T12:00:00+00:00	99.4%	—	—	—	—	89.0%
2026-10-08T18:00:00+00:00	27.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T00:00:00+00:00	72.2%	—	—	—	—	87.4%
2026-10-09T06:00:00+00:00	33.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:00	28.7%	—	82.3%	—	—	89.1%
2026-10-09T18:00:00+00:00	19.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:00	30.2%	—	97.5%	—	—	83.9%
2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:00	17.2%	—	73.9%	—	—	—
2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00	47.4%	—	89.3%	—	—	84.0%
2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00	48.0%	—	19.4%	—	—	—
2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00	19.4%	—	28.2%	—	—	69.4%
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00	49.3%	—	8.6%	—	—	—
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00	82.9%	53.5%	21.9%	49.3%	—	79.6%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00	89.3%	—	38.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00	87.6%	83.0%	75.1%	83.0%	—	86.5%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00	76.2%	—	73.2%	—	—	—
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00	83.5%	91.6%	85.4%	80.5%	—	81.6%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00	81.1%	—	88.7%	—	—	—
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00	77.0%	75.8%	93.1%	77.0%	—	77.6%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00	66.6%	14.4%	95.3%	—	—	—
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00	76.8%	85.2%	95.3%	63.1%	—	71.4%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00	42.4%	73.3%	88.1%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00	43.9%	69.3%	95.3%	4.1%	—	44.8%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00	43.7%	61.5%	92.5%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00	33.9%	33.0%	59.1%	2.8%	—	31.4%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00	41.5%	57.5%	81.7%	—	—	20.3%
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00	23.2%	48.0%	80.3%	9.4%	—	27.1%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00	54.0%	57.0%	74.3%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00	24.3%	55.1%	73.2%	75.7%	—	34.0%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00	25.3%	53.2%	61.5%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00	23.8%	59.7%	46.7%	62.9%	—	16.9%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00	21.4%	59.0%	42.2%	0.1%	—	30.5%
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00	22.4%	54.6%	52.3%	62.6%	—	57.0%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00	25.3%	61.9%	65.3%	54.8%	—	48.8%
2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00	30.9%	62.3%	65.8%	46.3%	11.2%	52.5%
2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00	29.1%	53.9%	74.1%	53.9%	—	52.6%
2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00	27.3%	61.9%	79.0%	54.0%	11.3%	55.4%
2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00	24.2%	54.2%	74.7%	62.3%	—	59.7%
2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00	29.3%	51.4%	88.5%	65.5%	14.6%	64.2%
2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00	21.3%	36.6%	89.5%	76.4%	—	54.5%
2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00	39.1%	29.0%	93.4%	73.7%	19.2%	63.9%
2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00	0.3%	48.4%	91.4%	75.9%	—	—

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
WeatherNext 2	80%	67.9°F	2.9°F	2026-10-17 18:00	0.0420
IFS HRES	70%	67.5°F	3.7°F	2026-10-17 12:00	0.0870
AIFS Single	67%	67.2°F	3.9°F	2026-10-17 18:00	0.1109
NWS forecast	59%	66.0°F	2.1°F	2026-10-18 03:00	0.1665
National Blend	59%	66.0°F	2.2°F	2026-10-18 00:00	0.1697
IFS Ensemble	58%	66.0°F	2.5°F	2026-10-17 00:00	0.1772
ICON	46%	65.1°F	3.5°F	2026-10-17 12:00	0.2970

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 66°F · KCHS

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KCHS-20261018-TMAX-GE66
Opened Oct 15 · 04:01 UTC

Original listing: Charleston high ≥ 66°F · Sun Oct 18

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗