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KCHS / Sun Oct 18 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Charleston, SCHigh ≥ 68°F

FINAL OUTCOMEYESOct 13 · 03:30 UTC
THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%
WN2
94%
ICON
89%
AIFS
88%
EPS
81%
HRES
75%
Consensus
83%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED
WN2YES 84.7¢Risks 42.35u
VS
HRESNO 15.3¢Risks 7.65u

50 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

WN2 +7.65u · HRES −7.65u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

RecordedReconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

0%25%50%75%100%AIFS Single: 28.9% · 2026-10-11T11:19:45+00:00AIFS Single: 28.9% · 2026-10-11T12:05:21+00:00AIFS Single: 28.9% · 2026-10-11T12:50:26+00:00AIFS Single: 62.0% · 2026-10-11T13:35:41+00:00AIFS Single: 61.9% · 2026-10-11T14:26:12+00:00AIFS Single: 61.9% · 2026-10-11T15:11:30+00:00AIFS Single: 61.9% · 2026-10-11T15:57:18+00:00AIFS Single: 61.9% · 2026-10-11T16:42:25+00:00AIFS Single: 61.9% · 2026-10-11T17:27:59+00:00AIFS Single: 61.9% · 2026-10-11T18:13:08+00:00AIFS Single: 61.9% · 2026-10-11T18:58:17+00:00AIFS Single: 90.1% · 2026-10-11T19:43:30+00:00AIFS Single: 90.1% · 2026-10-11T20:28:39+00:00AIFS Single: 90.1% · 2026-10-11T21:13:51+00:00AIFS Single: 90.1% · 2026-10-11T21:58:58+00:00AIFS Single: 90.1% · 2026-10-11T22:44:10+00:00AIFS Single: 90.1% · 2026-10-11T23:29:31+00:00AIFS Single: 90.1% · 2026-10-12T00:14:42+00:00AIFS Single: 90.1% · 2026-10-12T01:00:09+00:00AIFS Single: 93.6% · 2026-10-12T01:45:19+00:00AIFS Single: 93.6% · 2026-10-12T02:30:27+00:00AIFS Single: 93.6% · 2026-10-12T03:15:36+00:00AIFS Single: 85.0% · 2026-10-12T15:26:49+00:00AIFS Single: 85.0% · 2026-10-12T16:12:55+00:00AIFS Single: 85.0% · 2026-10-12T16:58:02+00:00AIFS Single: 85.0% · 2026-10-12T17:43:12+00:00AIFS Single: 85.0% · 2026-10-12T18:28:19+00:00AIFS Single: 85.0% · 2026-10-12T19:13:25+00:00AIFS Single: 89.6% · 2026-10-12T19:58:31+00:00AIFS Single: 89.6% · 2026-10-12T20:43:42+00:00AIFS Single: 89.6% · 2026-10-12T21:28:49+00:00AIFS Single: 89.6% · 2026-10-12T22:13:55+00:00AIFS Single: 89.6% · 2026-10-12T22:59:07+00:00AIFS Single: 89.6% · 2026-10-12T23:44:17+00:00AIFS Single: 89.6% · 2026-10-13T00:29:23+00:00AIFS Single: 89.6% · 2026-10-13T01:14:38+00:00AIFS Single: 87.9% · 2026-10-13T01:59:46+00:00AIFS Single: 87.9% · 2026-10-13T02:44:55+00:00AIFS Single: 87.9% · 2026-10-13T03:30:00+00:00IFS Ensemble: 70.0% · 2026-10-11T11:19:45+00:00IFS Ensemble: 70.0% · 2026-10-11T12:05:21+00:00IFS Ensemble: 70.0% · 2026-10-11T12:50:26+00:00IFS Ensemble: 70.0% · 2026-10-11T13:35:41+00:00IFS Ensemble: 70.0% · 2026-10-11T14:26:12+00:00IFS Ensemble: 70.0% · 2026-10-11T15:11:30+00:00IFS Ensemble: 70.0% · 2026-10-11T15:57:18+00:00IFS Ensemble: 70.0% · 2026-10-11T16:42:25+00:00IFS Ensemble: 70.0% · 2026-10-11T17:27:59+00:00IFS Ensemble: 70.0% · 2026-10-11T18:13:08+00:00IFS Ensemble: 70.0% · 2026-10-11T18:58:17+00:00IFS Ensemble: 70.0% · 2026-10-11T19:43:30+00:00IFS Ensemble: 70.0% · 2026-10-11T20:28:39+00:00IFS Ensemble: 70.0% · 2026-10-11T21:13:51+00:00IFS Ensemble: 70.0% · 2026-10-11T21:58:58+00:00IFS Ensemble: 70.0% · 2026-10-11T22:44:10+00:00IFS Ensemble: 70.0% · 2026-10-11T23:29:31+00:00IFS Ensemble: 70.0% · 2026-10-12T00:14:42+00:00IFS Ensemble: 70.0% · 2026-10-12T01:00:09+00:00IFS Ensemble: 70.0% · 2026-10-12T01:45:19+00:00IFS Ensemble: 70.0% · 2026-10-12T02:30:27+00:00IFS Ensemble: 70.0% · 2026-10-12T03:15:36+00:00IFS Ensemble: 79.8% · 2026-10-12T15:26:49+00:00IFS Ensemble: 80.9% · 2026-10-12T16:12:55+00:00IFS Ensemble: 80.9% · 2026-10-12T16:58:02+00:00IFS Ensemble: 80.9% · 2026-10-12T17:43:12+00:00IFS Ensemble: 80.9% · 2026-10-12T18:28:19+00:00IFS Ensemble: 80.9% · 2026-10-12T19:13:25+00:00IFS Ensemble: 80.9% · 2026-10-12T19:58:31+00:00IFS Ensemble: 80.9% · 2026-10-12T20:43:42+00:00IFS Ensemble: 80.9% · 2026-10-12T21:28:49+00:00IFS Ensemble: 80.9% · 2026-10-12T22:13:55+00:00IFS Ensemble: 80.9% · 2026-10-12T22:59:07+00:00IFS Ensemble: 80.9% · 2026-10-12T23:44:17+00:00IFS Ensemble: 80.9% · 2026-10-13T00:29:23+00:00IFS Ensemble: 80.9% · 2026-10-13T01:14:38+00:00IFS Ensemble: 80.9% · 2026-10-13T01:59:46+00:00IFS Ensemble: 80.9% · 2026-10-13T02:44:55+00:00IFS Ensemble: 80.9% · 2026-10-13T03:30:00+00:00WeatherNext 2: 60.4% · 2026-10-11T11:19:45+00:00WeatherNext 2: 60.4% · 2026-10-11T12:05:21+00:00WeatherNext 2: 60.4% · 2026-10-11T12:50:26+00:00WeatherNext 2: 60.4% · 2026-10-11T13:35:41+00:00WeatherNext 2: 60.4% · 2026-10-11T14:26:12+00:00WeatherNext 2: 60.4% · 2026-10-11T15:11:30+00:00WeatherNext 2: 60.4% · 2026-10-11T15:57:18+00:00WeatherNext 2: 60.4% · 2026-10-11T16:42:25+00:00WeatherNext 2: 59.6% · 2026-10-11T17:27:59+00:00WeatherNext 2: 59.6% · 2026-10-11T18:13:08+00:00WeatherNext 2: 59.6% · 2026-10-11T18:58:17+00:00WeatherNext 2: 59.6% · 2026-10-11T19:43:30+00:00WeatherNext 2: 59.6% · 2026-10-11T20:28:39+00:00WeatherNext 2: 59.6% · 2026-10-11T21:13:51+00:00WeatherNext 2: 59.6% · 2026-10-11T21:58:58+00:00WeatherNext 2: 59.6% · 2026-10-11T22:44:10+00:00WeatherNext 2: 87.5% · 2026-10-11T23:29:31+00:00WeatherNext 2: 87.5% · 2026-10-12T00:14:42+00:00WeatherNext 2: 87.5% · 2026-10-12T01:00:09+00:00WeatherNext 2: 87.5% · 2026-10-12T01:45:19+00:00WeatherNext 2: 87.5% · 2026-10-12T02:30:27+00:00WeatherNext 2: 87.5% · 2026-10-12T03:15:36+00:00WeatherNext 2: 96.4% · 2026-10-12T15:26:49+00:00WeatherNext 2: 96.4% · 2026-10-12T16:12:55+00:00WeatherNext 2: 92.9% · 2026-10-12T16:58:02+00:00WeatherNext 2: 92.9% · 2026-10-12T17:43:12+00:00WeatherNext 2: 92.9% · 2026-10-12T18:28:19+00:00WeatherNext 2: 92.9% · 2026-10-12T19:13:25+00:00WeatherNext 2: 92.9% · 2026-10-12T19:58:31+00:00WeatherNext 2: 92.9% · 2026-10-12T20:43:42+00:00WeatherNext 2: 92.9% · 2026-10-12T21:28:49+00:00WeatherNext 2: 92.9% · 2026-10-12T22:13:55+00:00WeatherNext 2: 94.0% · 2026-10-12T22:59:07+00:00WeatherNext 2: 94.0% · 2026-10-12T23:44:17+00:00WeatherNext 2: 94.0% · 2026-10-13T00:29:23+00:00WeatherNext 2: 94.0% · 2026-10-13T01:14:38+00:00WeatherNext 2: 94.0% · 2026-10-13T01:59:46+00:00WeatherNext 2: 94.0% · 2026-10-13T02:44:55+00:00WeatherNext 2: 94.0% · 2026-10-13T03:30:00+00:00IFS HRES: 92.2% · 2026-10-11T11:19:45+00:00IFS HRES: 92.2% · 2026-10-11T12:05:21+00:00IFS HRES: 92.2% · 2026-10-11T12:50:26+00:00IFS HRES: 92.2% · 2026-10-11T13:35:41+00:00IFS HRES: 92.2% · 2026-10-11T14:26:12+00:00IFS HRES: 92.2% · 2026-10-11T15:11:30+00:00IFS HRES: 92.2% · 2026-10-11T15:57:18+00:00IFS HRES: 92.2% · 2026-10-11T16:42:25+00:00IFS HRES: 92.2% · 2026-10-11T17:27:59+00:00IFS HRES: 92.2% · 2026-10-11T18:13:08+00:00IFS HRES: 92.2% · 2026-10-11T18:58:17+00:00IFS HRES: 87.2% · 2026-10-11T19:43:30+00:00IFS HRES: 87.2% · 2026-10-11T20:28:39+00:00IFS HRES: 87.2% · 2026-10-11T21:13:51+00:00IFS HRES: 87.2% · 2026-10-11T21:58:58+00:00IFS HRES: 87.2% · 2026-10-11T22:44:10+00:00IFS HRES: 87.2% · 2026-10-11T23:29:31+00:00IFS HRES: 87.2% · 2026-10-12T00:14:42+00:00IFS HRES: 87.2% · 2026-10-12T01:00:09+00:00IFS HRES: 87.2% · 2026-10-12T01:45:19+00:00IFS HRES: 87.2% · 2026-10-12T02:30:27+00:00IFS HRES: 87.2% · 2026-10-12T03:15:36+00:00IFS HRES: 88.3% · 2026-10-12T15:26:49+00:00IFS HRES: 88.3% · 2026-10-12T16:12:55+00:00IFS HRES: 88.3% · 2026-10-12T16:58:02+00:00IFS HRES: 88.3% · 2026-10-12T17:43:12+00:00IFS HRES: 88.3% · 2026-10-12T18:28:19+00:00IFS HRES: 88.3% · 2026-10-12T19:13:25+00:00IFS HRES: 75.4% · 2026-10-12T19:58:31+00:00IFS HRES: 75.4% · 2026-10-12T20:43:42+00:00IFS HRES: 75.4% · 2026-10-12T21:28:49+00:00IFS HRES: 75.4% · 2026-10-12T22:13:55+00:00IFS HRES: 75.4% · 2026-10-12T22:59:07+00:00IFS HRES: 75.4% · 2026-10-12T23:44:17+00:00IFS HRES: 75.4% · 2026-10-13T00:29:23+00:00IFS HRES: 75.4% · 2026-10-13T01:14:38+00:00IFS HRES: 75.4% · 2026-10-13T01:59:46+00:00IFS HRES: 75.4% · 2026-10-13T02:44:55+00:00IFS HRES: 75.4% · 2026-10-13T03:30:00+00:00ICON: 62.0% · 2026-10-11T19:43:30+00:00ICON: 62.0% · 2026-10-11T20:28:39+00:00ICON: 62.0% · 2026-10-11T21:13:51+00:00ICON: 62.0% · 2026-10-11T21:58:58+00:00ICON: 62.0% · 2026-10-11T22:44:10+00:00ICON: 62.0% · 2026-10-11T23:29:31+00:00ICON: 62.0% · 2026-10-12T00:14:42+00:00ICON: 62.0% · 2026-10-12T01:00:09+00:00ICON: 62.0% · 2026-10-12T01:45:19+00:00ICON: 62.0% · 2026-10-12T02:30:27+00:00ICON: 62.0% · 2026-10-12T03:15:36+00:00ICON: 83.0% · 2026-10-12T15:26:49+00:00ICON: 83.0% · 2026-10-12T16:12:55+00:00ICON: 83.0% · 2026-10-12T16:58:02+00:00ICON: 83.0% · 2026-10-12T17:43:12+00:00ICON: 83.0% · 2026-10-12T18:28:19+00:00ICON: 83.0% · 2026-10-12T19:13:25+00:00ICON: 89.2% · 2026-10-12T19:58:31+00:00ICON: 89.2% · 2026-10-12T20:43:42+00:00ICON: 89.2% · 2026-10-12T21:28:49+00:00ICON: 89.2% · 2026-10-12T22:13:55+00:00ICON: 89.2% · 2026-10-12T22:59:07+00:00ICON: 89.2% · 2026-10-12T23:44:17+00:00ICON: 89.2% · 2026-10-13T00:29:23+00:00ICON: 89.2% · 2026-10-13T01:14:38+00:00ICON: 89.2% · 2026-10-13T01:59:46+00:00ICON: 89.2% · 2026-10-13T02:44:55+00:00ICON: 89.2% · 2026-10-13T03:30:00+00:0010-11 11:1910-12 01:4510-13 03:30
AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON
2026-10-13T03:30:00+00:00 · UTC
View the forecast data
UTCAIFSEPSWN2HRESICON
2026-10-11T11:19:45+00:0028.9%70.0%60.4%92.2%—
2026-10-11T12:05:21+00:0028.9%70.0%60.4%92.2%—
2026-10-11T12:50:26+00:0028.9%70.0%60.4%92.2%—
2026-10-11T13:35:41+00:0062.0%70.0%60.4%92.2%—
2026-10-11T14:26:12+00:0061.9%70.0%60.4%92.2%—
2026-10-11T15:11:30+00:0061.9%70.0%60.4%92.2%—
2026-10-11T15:57:18+00:0061.9%70.0%60.4%92.2%—
2026-10-11T16:42:25+00:0061.9%70.0%60.4%92.2%—
2026-10-11T17:27:59+00:0061.9%70.0%59.6%92.2%—
2026-10-11T18:13:08+00:0061.9%70.0%59.6%92.2%—
2026-10-11T18:58:17+00:0061.9%70.0%59.6%92.2%—
2026-10-11T19:43:30+00:0090.1%70.0%59.6%87.2%62.0%
2026-10-11T20:28:39+00:0090.1%70.0%59.6%87.2%62.0%
2026-10-11T21:13:51+00:0090.1%70.0%59.6%87.2%62.0%
2026-10-11T21:58:58+00:0090.1%70.0%59.6%87.2%62.0%
2026-10-11T22:44:10+00:0090.1%70.0%59.6%87.2%62.0%
2026-10-11T23:29:31+00:0090.1%70.0%87.5%87.2%62.0%
2026-10-12T00:14:42+00:0090.1%70.0%87.5%87.2%62.0%
2026-10-12T01:00:09+00:0090.1%70.0%87.5%87.2%62.0%
2026-10-12T01:45:19+00:0093.6%70.0%87.5%87.2%62.0%
2026-10-12T02:30:27+00:0093.6%70.0%87.5%87.2%62.0%
2026-10-12T03:15:36+00:0093.6%70.0%87.5%87.2%62.0%
2026-10-12T15:26:49+00:0085.0%79.8%96.4%88.3%83.0%
2026-10-12T16:12:55+00:0085.0%80.9%96.4%88.3%83.0%
2026-10-12T16:58:02+00:0085.0%80.9%92.9%88.3%83.0%
2026-10-12T17:43:12+00:0085.0%80.9%92.9%88.3%83.0%
2026-10-12T18:28:19+00:0085.0%80.9%92.9%88.3%83.0%
2026-10-12T19:13:25+00:0085.0%80.9%92.9%88.3%83.0%
2026-10-12T19:58:31+00:0089.6%80.9%92.9%75.4%89.2%
2026-10-12T20:43:42+00:0089.6%80.9%92.9%75.4%89.2%
2026-10-12T21:28:49+00:0089.6%80.9%92.9%75.4%89.2%
2026-10-12T22:13:55+00:0089.6%80.9%92.9%75.4%89.2%
2026-10-12T22:59:07+00:0089.6%80.9%94.0%75.4%89.2%
2026-10-12T23:44:17+00:0089.6%80.9%94.0%75.4%89.2%
2026-10-13T00:29:23+00:0089.6%80.9%94.0%75.4%89.2%
2026-10-13T01:14:38+00:0089.6%80.9%94.0%75.4%89.2%
2026-10-13T01:59:46+00:0087.9%80.9%94.0%75.4%89.2%
2026-10-13T02:44:55+00:0087.9%80.9%94.0%75.4%89.2%
2026-10-13T03:30:00+00:0087.9%80.9%94.0%75.4%89.2%
THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODELYESMEANSPREAD σINITIALIZATION UTCBRIER ↓
WeatherNext 294%74.6°F4.6°F2026-10-12 12:000.0036
ICON89%76.2°F7.0°F2026-10-12 12:000.0117
AIFS Single88%73.7°F5.3°F2026-10-12 18:000.0146
IFS Ensemble81%70.6°F3.5°F2026-10-12 00:000.0365
IFS HRES75%72.0°F6.6°F2026-10-12 12:000.0605
NWS forecast53%68.0°F5.8°F2026-10-12 14:000.2172
National Blend47%67.0°F6.7°F2026-10-12 06:000.2809

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 68°F · KCHS

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KCHS-20261018-TMAX-GE68
Opened Oct 11 · 11:19 UTC

Original listing: Charleston high ≥ 68°F · Sun Oct 18

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗