KCHS / Sun Oct 18 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Charleston, SCHigh ≥ 68°F

FINAL OUTCOMEYESOct 13 · 03:30 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

94%

89%

88%

81%

75%

Consensus

83%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

WN2YES 84.7¢Risks 42.35u

HRESNO 15.3¢Risks 7.65u

50 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

WN2 +7.65u · HRES −7.65u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-10-03T06:00:00+00:00	35.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-03T12:00:00+00:00	21.2%	—	—	—	—	39.5%
2026-10-03T18:00:00+00:00	76.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-04T00:00:00+00:00	46.8%	—	—	—	—	88.8%
2026-10-04T06:00:00+00:00	66.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-04T12:00:00+00:00	97.4%	—	—	—	—	91.7%
2026-10-04T18:00:00+00:00	97.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-05T00:00:00+00:00	88.2%	—	—	—	—	91.9%
2026-10-05T06:00:00+00:00	90.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-05T12:00:00+00:00	46.8%	—	—	—	—	84.8%
2026-10-05T18:00:00+00:00	36.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-06T00:00:00+00:00	14.9%	—	—	—	—	88.8%
2026-10-06T06:00:00+00:00	13.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-06T12:00:00+00:00	27.9%	—	—	—	—	79.6%
2026-10-06T18:00:00+00:00	24.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T00:00:00+00:00	81.8%	—	—	—	—	85.7%
2026-10-07T06:00:00+00:00	84.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T12:00:00+00:00	97.3%	—	—	—	—	86.1%
2026-10-07T18:00:00+00:00	83.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T00:00:00+00:00	75.0%	—	—	—	—	80.4%
2026-10-08T06:00:00+00:00	94.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T12:00:00+00:00	98.6%	—	—	—	—	82.6%
2026-10-08T18:00:00+00:00	18.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T00:00:00+00:00	61.6%	—	—	—	—	80.3%
2026-10-09T06:00:00+00:00	23.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:00	19.3%	—	73.4%	—	—	82.3%
2026-10-09T18:00:00+00:00	12.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:00	20.2%	—	95.1%	—	—	75.1%
2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:00	10.3%	—	62.6%	—	—	—
2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00	34.8%	—	82.0%	—	—	74.8%
2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00	35.1%	—	11.6%	—	—	—
2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00	11.4%	—	18.0%	—	—	56.7%
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00	35.8%	—	4.4%	—	—	—
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00	72.5%	39.6%	13.0%	35.6%	—	68.3%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00	81.1%	—	25.3%	—	—	—
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00	78.5%	72.2%	62.3%	72.2%	—	76.8%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00	63.2%	—	59.6%	—	—	—
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00	72.4%	84.0%	74.9%	68.4%	—	69.7%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00	68.8%	—	79.4%	—	—	—
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00	63.3%	61.8%	86.0%	63.3%	—	64.1%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00	50.8%	7.0%	89.8%	—	—	—
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00	62.3%	73.5%	89.5%	46.7%	—	55.8%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00	26.7%	57.6%	77.4%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00	27.7%	52.6%	89.1%	1.5%	—	28.4%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00	27.1%	43.7%	83.9%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00	19.0%	18.4%	40.9%	0.9%	—	17.2%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00	24.6%	38.8%	66.5%	—	—	9.6%
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00	11.1%	29.6%	64.3%	3.5%	—	13.6%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00	34.4%	37.2%	56.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00	11.3%	34.9%	54.1%	57.2%	—	17.6%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00	11.6%	32.6%	40.6%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00	10.4%	38.2%	26.4%	41.3%	—	6.6%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00	8.7%	36.7%	22.3%	0.0%	—	14.1%
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00	9.0%	32.0%	30.0%	39.6%	—	34.1%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00	10.2%	38.1%	41.6%	31.4%	—	26.3%
2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00	13.0%	37.7%	41.3%	23.6%	3.3%	28.7%
2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00	11.5%	29.1%	50.0%	29.1%	—	28.0%
2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00	10.1%	35.6%	55.4%	28.4%	3.0%	29.5%
2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00	8.1%	27.6%	48.6%	35.0%	—	32.5%
2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00	10.2%	24.5%	68.2%	37.2%	3.7%	35.8%
2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00	6.0%	13.6%	68.9%	48.5%	—	26.0%
2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00	14.2%	8.9%	76.2%	43.7%	4.8%	33.1%
2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00	0.0%	19.2%	70.5%	45.1%	—	—

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
WeatherNext 2	94%	74.6°F	4.6°F	2026-10-12 12:00	0.0036
ICON	89%	76.2°F	7.0°F	2026-10-12 12:00	0.0117
AIFS Single	88%	73.7°F	5.3°F	2026-10-12 18:00	0.0146
IFS Ensemble	81%	70.6°F	3.5°F	2026-10-12 00:00	0.0365
IFS HRES	75%	72.0°F	6.6°F	2026-10-12 12:00	0.0605
NWS forecast	53%	68.0°F	5.8°F	2026-10-12 14:00	0.2172
National Blend	47%	67.0°F	6.7°F	2026-10-12 06:00	0.2809

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 68°F · KCHS

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KCHS-20261018-TMAX-GE68
Opened Oct 11 · 11:19 UTC

Original listing: Charleston high ≥ 68°F · Sun Oct 18

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗