KCHS / Sun Oct 18 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Charleston, SCHigh ≤ 67°F

FINAL OUTCOMENOOct 18 · 07:15 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

75%

73%

53%

50%

44%

Consensus

69%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

ICONYES 59.9¢Risks 59.85u

WN2NO 40.1¢Risks 40.15u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

ICON +40.15u · WN2 −40.15u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-18T07:15:32+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	EPS	WN2	HRES	ICON
2026-10-14T10:32:25+00:00	39.7%	28.2%	13.7%	53.2%	34.7%
2026-10-14T11:20:42+00:00	39.7%	52.9%	35.3%	53.2%	34.7%
2026-10-14T12:06:11+00:00	39.7%	52.9%	35.3%	53.2%	34.7%
2026-10-14T12:51:19+00:00	39.7%	52.9%	35.3%	53.2%	34.7%
2026-10-14T13:36:26+00:00	41.4%	52.9%	35.3%	53.2%	34.7%
2026-10-14T14:26:49+00:00	41.4%	52.9%	35.3%	53.2%	33.9%
2026-10-14T15:12:07+00:00	41.4%	51.0%	35.3%	53.2%	33.9%
2026-10-14T15:57:54+00:00	41.4%	51.0%	35.3%	53.2%	33.9%
2026-10-14T16:43:03+00:00	41.4%	51.0%	35.3%	53.2%	33.9%
2026-10-14T17:28:11+00:00	41.4%	51.0%	47.9%	53.2%	33.9%
2026-10-14T18:13:19+00:00	41.4%	51.0%	47.9%	53.2%	33.9%
2026-10-14T18:58:26+00:00	41.4%	51.0%	47.9%	53.2%	33.9%
2026-10-14T19:43:32+00:00	50.0%	51.0%	47.9%	80.5%	67.6%
2026-10-14T20:28:48+00:00	50.0%	51.0%	47.9%	80.5%	67.6%
2026-10-14T21:13:55+00:00	50.0%	51.0%	47.9%	80.5%	67.6%
2026-10-14T21:59:01+00:00	50.0%	51.0%	47.9%	80.5%	67.6%
2026-10-14T22:44:08+00:00	50.0%	51.0%	47.9%	80.5%	67.6%
2026-10-14T23:29:32+00:00	50.0%	51.0%	46.8%	80.5%	67.6%
2026-10-15T00:14:40+00:00	50.0%	51.0%	46.8%	80.5%	67.6%
2026-10-15T01:01:10+00:00	50.0%	51.0%	46.8%	80.5%	67.6%
2026-10-15T01:46:16+00:00	42.2%	51.0%	46.8%	80.5%	67.6%
2026-10-15T02:31:28+00:00	42.2%	51.0%	46.8%	80.5%	67.6%
2026-10-15T03:16:36+00:00	42.2%	51.0%	46.8%	80.5%	67.6%
2026-10-15T04:01:56+00:00	42.2%	51.0%	46.8%	80.5%	67.6%
2026-10-15T04:47:52+00:00	42.2%	51.0%	46.8%	80.5%	67.6%
2026-10-15T05:33:16+00:00	42.2%	51.0%	34.3%	80.5%	67.6%
2026-10-15T06:18:26+00:00	42.2%	51.0%	34.3%	80.5%	67.6%
2026-10-15T07:03:34+00:00	42.2%	51.0%	34.3%	80.5%	67.6%
2026-10-15T07:49:16+00:00	60.1%	51.0%	34.3%	63.1%	64.7%
2026-10-15T08:35:49+00:00	60.1%	51.0%	34.3%	63.1%	64.7%
2026-10-15T09:21:43+00:00	60.1%	51.0%	34.3%	63.1%	64.7%
2026-10-15T10:07:29+00:00	60.1%	51.0%	34.3%	63.1%	64.7%
2026-10-15T10:52:49+00:00	60.1%	51.0%	34.3%	63.1%	64.7%
2026-10-15T11:39:10+00:00	60.1%	51.0%	39.5%	63.1%	64.7%
2026-10-15T12:24:49+00:00	60.1%	69.7%	39.5%	63.1%	64.7%
2026-10-15T13:10:11+00:00	60.1%	69.7%	39.5%	63.1%	64.7%
2026-10-15T13:55:48+00:00	31.2%	69.6%	39.5%	63.1%	64.7%
2026-10-15T14:48:23+00:00	31.2%	69.6%	39.5%	63.1%	64.7%
2026-10-15T15:33:52+00:00	31.2%	68.7%	39.5%	63.1%	64.7%
2026-10-15T16:19:57+00:00	31.2%	68.7%	39.5%	63.1%	64.7%
2026-10-15T17:05:20+00:00	31.2%	68.7%	22.9%	63.1%	64.7%
2026-10-15T17:50:38+00:00	31.2%	68.7%	22.9%	63.1%	64.7%
2026-10-15T18:35:58+00:00	31.2%	68.7%	22.9%	63.1%	64.7%
2026-10-15T19:21:06+00:00	31.2%	68.7%	22.9%	63.1%	64.7%
2026-10-15T20:06:14+00:00	58.3%	68.7%	22.9%	64.8%	58.0%
2026-10-15T20:51:27+00:00	58.3%	68.7%	22.9%	64.8%	58.0%
2026-10-15T21:36:42+00:00	58.3%	68.7%	22.9%	64.8%	58.0%
2026-10-15T22:21:49+00:00	58.3%	68.7%	22.9%	64.8%	58.0%
2026-10-15T23:07:01+00:00	58.3%	68.7%	35.0%	64.8%	58.0%
2026-10-15T23:52:13+00:00	58.3%	68.7%	35.0%	64.8%	58.0%
2026-10-16T00:37:21+00:00	58.3%	68.7%	35.0%	64.8%	58.0%
2026-10-16T01:22:41+00:00	56.5%	68.7%	35.0%	64.8%	58.0%
2026-10-16T02:08:17+00:00	56.5%	68.7%	35.0%	64.8%	58.0%
2026-10-16T02:53:28+00:00	56.5%	68.7%	35.0%	64.8%	58.0%
2026-10-16T03:38:40+00:00	56.5%	68.7%	35.0%	64.8%	58.0%
2026-10-16T04:23:58+00:00	56.5%	68.7%	35.0%	64.8%	58.0%
2026-10-16T05:10:24+00:00	56.5%	68.7%	37.2%	64.8%	58.0%
2026-10-16T05:55:52+00:00	56.5%	68.7%	37.2%	64.8%	58.0%
2026-10-16T06:41:02+00:00	56.5%	68.7%	37.2%	64.8%	58.0%
2026-10-16T07:26:13+00:00	59.7%	68.7%	37.2%	64.8%	65.4%
2026-10-16T08:11:22+00:00	59.7%	68.7%	37.2%	64.8%	65.4%
2026-10-16T08:56:33+00:00	59.7%	68.7%	37.2%	64.8%	65.4%
2026-10-16T09:41:41+00:00	59.7%	68.7%	37.2%	64.8%	65.4%
2026-10-16T10:26:47+00:00	59.7%	68.7%	37.2%	64.8%	65.4%
2026-10-16T11:12:11+00:00	59.7%	91.5%	51.3%	64.8%	65.4%
2026-10-16T11:57:36+00:00	59.7%	91.5%	51.3%	64.8%	65.4%
2026-10-16T12:42:48+00:00	59.7%	91.5%	51.3%	64.8%	65.4%
2026-10-16T13:28:09+00:00	60.7%	91.5%	51.3%	72.1%	65.4%
2026-10-16T14:19:41+00:00	60.7%	91.4%	51.3%	72.1%	65.4%
2026-10-16T15:05:16+00:00	60.7%	90.9%	51.3%	72.1%	65.4%
2026-10-16T15:50:54+00:00	60.7%	91.0%	51.3%	72.1%	65.4%
2026-10-16T16:36:09+00:00	60.7%	91.0%	51.3%	72.1%	65.4%
2026-10-16T17:21:17+00:00	60.7%	91.0%	39.8%	72.1%	65.4%
2026-10-16T18:06:36+00:00	60.7%	91.0%	39.8%	72.1%	65.4%
2026-10-16T18:51:42+00:00	60.7%	91.0%	39.8%	72.1%	65.4%
2026-10-16T19:36:55+00:00	59.7%	91.0%	39.8%	72.1%	70.4%
2026-10-16T20:22:22+00:00	59.7%	91.0%	39.8%	72.1%	70.4%
2026-10-16T21:07:45+00:00	59.7%	91.0%	39.8%	72.1%	70.4%
2026-10-16T21:52:51+00:00	59.7%	91.0%	39.8%	72.1%	70.4%
2026-10-16T22:37:59+00:00	59.7%	91.0%	39.8%	52.9%	70.4%
2026-10-16T23:23:22+00:00	59.7%	91.0%	42.3%	52.9%	70.4%
2026-10-17T00:08:59+00:00	59.7%	91.0%	42.3%	52.9%	70.4%
2026-10-17T00:54:56+00:00	59.7%	91.0%	42.3%	52.9%	70.4%
2026-10-17T01:40:05+00:00	54.9%	91.0%	42.3%	52.9%	70.4%
2026-10-17T02:25:18+00:00	54.9%	91.0%	42.3%	52.9%	70.4%
2026-10-17T03:10:27+00:00	54.9%	91.0%	42.3%	52.9%	70.4%
2026-10-17T03:55:36+00:00	54.9%	91.0%	42.3%	52.9%	70.4%
2026-10-17T04:41:20+00:00	54.9%	91.0%	42.3%	52.9%	70.4%
2026-10-17T05:28:21+00:00	54.9%	91.0%	41.1%	52.9%	70.4%
2026-10-17T06:13:34+00:00	54.9%	91.0%	41.1%	52.9%	70.4%
2026-10-17T06:58:44+00:00	54.9%	91.0%	41.1%	52.9%	70.4%
2026-10-17T07:44:08+00:00	49.0%	91.0%	41.1%	50.0%	74.3%
2026-10-17T08:30:37+00:00	49.0%	91.0%	41.1%	50.0%	74.3%
2026-10-17T09:16:31+00:00	49.0%	91.0%	41.1%	50.0%	74.3%
2026-10-17T10:01:48+00:00	49.0%	91.0%	41.1%	50.0%	74.3%
2026-10-17T10:46:53+00:00	49.0%	91.0%	41.1%	50.0%	74.3%
2026-10-17T11:32:01+00:00	49.0%	74.8%	43.2%	50.0%	74.3%
2026-10-17T12:17:26+00:00	49.0%	74.8%	43.2%	50.0%	74.3%
2026-10-17T13:02:32+00:00	49.0%	74.8%	43.2%	50.0%	74.3%
2026-10-17T13:47:49+00:00	51.0%	74.8%	43.2%	50.0%	74.3%
2026-10-17T14:39:15+00:00	51.0%	74.8%	43.2%	50.0%	74.3%
2026-10-17T15:24:31+00:00	51.0%	72.6%	43.2%	50.0%	74.3%
2026-10-17T16:10:30+00:00	51.0%	72.6%	43.2%	50.0%	74.3%
2026-10-17T16:55:38+00:00	51.0%	72.6%	44.5%	50.0%	74.3%
2026-10-17T17:40:47+00:00	51.0%	72.6%	44.5%	50.0%	74.3%
2026-10-17T18:25:55+00:00	51.0%	72.6%	44.5%	50.0%	74.3%
2026-10-17T19:11:02+00:00	51.0%	72.6%	44.5%	50.0%	74.3%
2026-10-17T19:56:10+00:00	52.0%	72.6%	44.5%	50.0%	75.2%
2026-10-17T20:41:26+00:00	52.0%	72.6%	44.5%	50.0%	75.2%
2026-10-17T21:26:36+00:00	52.0%	72.6%	44.5%	50.0%	75.2%
2026-10-17T22:11:52+00:00	52.0%	72.6%	44.5%	50.0%	75.2%
2026-10-17T22:57:00+00:00	52.0%	72.6%	48.6%	50.0%	75.2%
2026-10-17T23:42:11+00:00	52.0%	72.6%	48.6%	50.0%	75.2%
2026-10-18T00:27:22+00:00	52.0%	72.6%	48.6%	50.0%	75.2%
2026-10-18T01:12:51+00:00	52.0%	72.6%	48.6%	50.0%	75.2%
2026-10-18T01:58:11+00:00	53.0%	72.6%	48.6%	50.0%	75.2%
2026-10-18T02:43:19+00:00	53.0%	72.6%	48.6%	50.0%	75.2%
2026-10-18T03:28:27+00:00	53.0%	72.6%	48.6%	50.0%	75.2%
2026-10-18T04:13:49+00:00	53.0%	72.6%	48.6%	50.0%	75.2%
2026-10-18T05:00:12+00:00	53.0%	72.6%	44.5%	50.0%	75.2%
2026-10-18T05:45:18+00:00	53.0%	72.6%	44.5%	50.0%	75.2%
2026-10-18T06:30:25+00:00	53.0%	72.6%	44.5%	50.0%	75.2%
2026-10-18T07:15:32+00:00	53.0%	72.6%	44.5%	50.0%	75.2%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
NWS forecast	76%	66.0°F	2.1°F	2026-10-18 03:00	0.5730
ICON	75%	65.1°F	3.5°F	2026-10-17 12:00	0.5655
National Blend	75%	66.0°F	2.2°F	2026-10-18 00:00	0.5595
IFS Ensemble	73%	66.0°F	2.5°F	2026-10-17 00:00	0.5271
AIFS Single	53%	67.2°F	3.9°F	2026-10-17 18:00	0.2809
IFS HRES	50%	67.5°F	3.7°F	2026-10-17 12:00	0.2500
WeatherNext 2	44%	67.9°F	2.9°F	2026-10-17 18:00	0.1980

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≤ 67°F · KCHS

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KCHS-20261018-TMAX-LE67
Opened Oct 14 · 10:32 UTC

Original listing: Charleston stays cold-for-here: high ≤ 67°F · Sun Oct 18

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗