KCHS / Sun Oct 18 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Charleston, SCHigh ≤ 67°F

FINAL OUTCOMENOOct 18 · 07:15 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

75%

73%

53%

50%

44%

Consensus

69%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

ICONYES 59.9¢Risks 59.85u

WN2NO 40.1¢Risks 40.15u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

ICON +40.15u · WN2 −40.15u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-10-03T06:00:00+00:00	64.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-03T12:00:00+00:00	78.8%	—	—	—	—	60.5%
2026-10-03T18:00:00+00:00	23.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-04T00:00:00+00:00	53.2%	—	—	—	—	11.2%
2026-10-04T06:00:00+00:00	34.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-04T12:00:00+00:00	2.6%	—	—	—	—	8.3%
2026-10-04T18:00:00+00:00	2.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-05T00:00:00+00:00	11.8%	—	—	—	—	8.1%
2026-10-05T06:00:00+00:00	9.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-05T12:00:00+00:00	53.2%	—	—	—	—	15.2%
2026-10-05T18:00:00+00:00	63.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-06T00:00:00+00:00	85.1%	—	—	—	—	11.2%
2026-10-06T06:00:00+00:00	86.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-06T12:00:00+00:00	72.1%	—	—	—	—	20.4%
2026-10-06T18:00:00+00:00	75.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T00:00:00+00:00	18.2%	—	—	—	—	14.3%
2026-10-07T06:00:00+00:00	15.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T12:00:00+00:00	2.7%	—	—	—	—	13.9%
2026-10-07T18:00:00+00:00	16.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T00:00:00+00:00	25.0%	—	—	—	—	19.6%
2026-10-08T06:00:00+00:00	5.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T12:00:00+00:00	1.4%	—	—	—	—	17.4%
2026-10-08T18:00:00+00:00	81.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T00:00:00+00:00	38.4%	—	—	—	—	19.7%
2026-10-09T06:00:00+00:00	76.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:00	80.7%	—	26.7%	—	—	17.7%
2026-10-09T18:00:00+00:00	87.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:00	79.8%	—	4.9%	—	—	24.9%
2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:00	89.7%	—	37.4%	—	—	—
2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00	65.2%	—	18.0%	—	—	25.2%
2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00	64.9%	—	88.4%	—	—	—
2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00	88.6%	—	82.0%	—	—	43.3%
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00	64.2%	—	95.6%	—	—	—
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00	27.5%	60.4%	87.0%	64.4%	—	31.7%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00	18.9%	—	74.7%	—	—	—
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00	21.5%	27.9%	37.8%	27.9%	—	23.2%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00	36.8%	—	40.4%	—	—	—
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00	27.7%	16.0%	25.1%	31.6%	—	30.3%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00	31.2%	—	20.6%	—	—	—
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00	36.7%	38.2%	14.0%	36.7%	—	35.9%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00	49.2%	93.0%	10.2%	—	—	—
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00	37.7%	26.5%	10.4%	53.3%	—	44.2%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00	73.3%	42.4%	22.6%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00	72.4%	47.4%	10.9%	98.5%	—	71.6%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00	72.9%	56.3%	16.1%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00	81.0%	81.6%	59.1%	99.1%	—	82.8%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00	75.4%	61.2%	33.5%	—	—	90.4%
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00	88.9%	70.4%	35.7%	96.5%	—	86.4%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00	65.6%	62.8%	44.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00	88.7%	65.1%	45.9%	42.8%	—	82.4%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00	88.4%	67.4%	59.5%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00	89.6%	61.8%	73.6%	58.7%	—	93.4%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00	91.3%	63.3%	77.7%	100.0%	—	85.9%
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00	91.0%	68.0%	70.0%	60.4%	—	65.9%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00	89.8%	61.9%	58.4%	68.5%	—	73.7%
2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00	87.0%	62.3%	58.7%	76.4%	96.7%	71.3%
2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00	88.5%	70.9%	50.0%	70.9%	—	72.0%
2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00	89.9%	64.4%	44.6%	71.6%	97.0%	70.5%
2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00	91.9%	72.4%	51.4%	65.0%	—	67.5%
2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00	89.8%	75.5%	31.8%	62.8%	96.3%	64.2%
2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00	94.0%	86.4%	31.1%	51.5%	—	74.0%
2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00	85.8%	91.1%	23.8%	56.3%	95.2%	66.8%
2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00	100.0%	80.8%	29.5%	54.9%	—	—

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
NWS forecast	76%	66.0°F	2.1°F	2026-10-18 03:00	0.5730
ICON	75%	65.1°F	3.5°F	2026-10-17 12:00	0.5655
National Blend	75%	66.0°F	2.2°F	2026-10-18 00:00	0.5595
IFS Ensemble	73%	66.0°F	2.5°F	2026-10-17 00:00	0.5271
AIFS Single	53%	67.2°F	3.9°F	2026-10-17 18:00	0.2809
IFS HRES	50%	67.5°F	3.7°F	2026-10-17 12:00	0.2500
WeatherNext 2	44%	67.9°F	2.9°F	2026-10-17 18:00	0.1980

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≤ 67°F · KCHS

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KCHS-20261018-TMAX-LE67
Opened Oct 14 · 10:32 UTC

Original listing: Charleston stays cold-for-here: high ≤ 67°F · Sun Oct 18

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗