KCHS / Mon Oct 19 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Charleston, SCHigh ≤ 67°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST40%Oct 19 · 06:47 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

75%

56%

37%

22%

17%

Consensus

40%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

ICONYES 45.9¢Risks 45.90u

WN2NO 54.1¢Risks 54.10u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

ICON +54.10u · WN2 −54.10u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-19T06:47:19+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	EPS	WN2	HRES	ICON
2026-10-15T07:49:16+00:00	43.1%	13.2%	2.9%	44.4%	24.1%
2026-10-15T08:35:49+00:00	43.1%	13.2%	2.9%	44.4%	24.1%
2026-10-15T09:21:43+00:00	43.1%	13.2%	2.9%	44.4%	24.1%
2026-10-15T10:07:29+00:00	43.1%	13.2%	2.9%	44.4%	24.1%
2026-10-15T10:52:49+00:00	43.1%	13.2%	2.9%	44.4%	24.1%
2026-10-15T11:39:10+00:00	43.1%	13.2%	5.6%	44.4%	24.1%
2026-10-15T12:24:49+00:00	43.1%	34.0%	5.6%	44.4%	24.1%
2026-10-15T13:10:11+00:00	43.1%	34.0%	5.6%	44.4%	24.1%
2026-10-15T13:55:48+00:00	2.5%	34.0%	5.6%	44.4%	24.2%
2026-10-15T14:48:23+00:00	2.5%	34.0%	5.6%	44.4%	24.2%
2026-10-15T15:33:52+00:00	2.5%	32.6%	5.6%	44.4%	24.2%
2026-10-15T16:19:57+00:00	2.5%	32.6%	5.6%	44.4%	24.2%
2026-10-15T17:05:20+00:00	2.5%	32.6%	1.0%	44.4%	24.2%
2026-10-15T17:50:38+00:00	2.5%	32.6%	1.0%	44.4%	24.2%
2026-10-15T18:35:58+00:00	2.5%	32.6%	1.0%	44.4%	24.2%
2026-10-15T19:21:06+00:00	2.5%	32.6%	1.0%	44.4%	24.2%
2026-10-15T20:06:14+00:00	30.1%	32.6%	1.0%	39.0%	23.6%
2026-10-15T20:51:27+00:00	30.1%	32.6%	1.0%	39.0%	23.6%
2026-10-15T21:36:42+00:00	30.1%	32.6%	1.0%	39.0%	23.6%
2026-10-15T22:21:49+00:00	30.1%	32.6%	1.0%	39.0%	23.6%
2026-10-15T23:07:01+00:00	30.1%	32.6%	5.6%	39.0%	23.6%
2026-10-15T23:52:13+00:00	30.1%	32.6%	5.6%	39.0%	23.6%
2026-10-16T00:37:21+00:00	30.1%	32.6%	5.6%	39.0%	23.6%
2026-10-16T01:22:41+00:00	28.6%	32.6%	5.6%	39.0%	23.6%
2026-10-16T02:08:17+00:00	28.6%	32.6%	5.6%	39.0%	23.6%
2026-10-16T02:53:28+00:00	28.6%	32.6%	5.6%	39.0%	23.6%
2026-10-16T03:38:40+00:00	28.6%	32.6%	5.6%	39.0%	23.6%
2026-10-16T04:23:58+00:00	28.6%	32.6%	5.6%	39.0%	23.6%
2026-10-16T05:10:24+00:00	28.6%	32.6%	7.0%	39.0%	23.6%
2026-10-16T05:55:52+00:00	28.6%	32.6%	7.0%	39.0%	23.6%
2026-10-16T06:41:02+00:00	28.6%	32.6%	7.0%	39.0%	23.6%
2026-10-16T07:26:13+00:00	30.4%	32.6%	7.0%	39.0%	19.6%
2026-10-16T08:11:22+00:00	30.4%	32.6%	7.0%	39.0%	19.6%
2026-10-16T08:56:33+00:00	30.4%	32.6%	7.0%	39.0%	19.6%
2026-10-16T09:41:41+00:00	30.4%	32.6%	7.0%	39.0%	19.6%
2026-10-16T10:26:47+00:00	30.4%	32.6%	7.0%	39.0%	19.6%
2026-10-16T11:12:11+00:00	30.4%	71.6%	10.1%	39.0%	19.6%
2026-10-16T11:57:36+00:00	30.4%	71.6%	10.1%	39.0%	19.6%
2026-10-16T12:42:48+00:00	30.4%	71.6%	10.1%	39.0%	19.6%
2026-10-16T13:28:09+00:00	28.0%	71.6%	10.1%	58.9%	19.6%
2026-10-16T14:19:41+00:00	28.0%	71.5%	10.1%	58.9%	19.6%
2026-10-16T15:05:18+00:00	28.0%	69.7%	10.1%	58.9%	19.6%
2026-10-16T15:50:54+00:00	28.0%	69.7%	10.1%	58.9%	19.6%
2026-10-16T16:36:09+00:00	28.0%	69.7%	10.1%	58.9%	19.6%
2026-10-16T17:21:17+00:00	28.0%	69.7%	4.5%	58.9%	19.6%
2026-10-16T18:06:36+00:00	28.0%	69.7%	4.5%	58.9%	19.6%
2026-10-16T18:51:42+00:00	28.0%	69.7%	4.5%	58.9%	19.6%
2026-10-16T19:36:55+00:00	28.0%	69.7%	4.5%	58.9%	35.3%
2026-10-16T20:22:22+00:00	28.0%	69.7%	4.5%	58.9%	35.3%
2026-10-16T21:07:45+00:00	28.0%	69.7%	4.5%	58.9%	35.3%
2026-10-16T21:52:51+00:00	28.0%	69.7%	4.5%	58.9%	35.3%
2026-10-16T22:37:59+00:00	28.0%	69.7%	4.5%	43.8%	35.3%
2026-10-16T23:23:22+00:00	28.0%	69.7%	5.1%	43.8%	35.3%
2026-10-17T00:08:59+00:00	28.0%	69.7%	5.1%	43.8%	35.3%
2026-10-17T00:54:56+00:00	28.0%	69.7%	5.1%	43.8%	35.3%
2026-10-17T01:40:05+00:00	23.4%	69.7%	5.1%	43.8%	35.3%
2026-10-17T02:25:18+00:00	23.4%	69.7%	5.1%	43.8%	35.3%
2026-10-17T03:10:27+00:00	23.4%	69.7%	5.1%	43.8%	35.3%
2026-10-17T03:55:36+00:00	23.4%	69.7%	5.1%	43.8%	35.3%
2026-10-17T04:41:20+00:00	23.4%	69.7%	5.1%	43.8%	35.3%
2026-10-17T05:28:21+00:00	23.4%	69.7%	8.6%	43.8%	35.3%
2026-10-17T06:13:34+00:00	23.4%	69.7%	8.6%	43.8%	35.3%
2026-10-17T06:58:44+00:00	23.4%	69.7%	8.6%	43.8%	35.3%
2026-10-17T07:44:08+00:00	20.9%	69.7%	8.6%	44.2%	36.7%
2026-10-17T08:30:37+00:00	20.9%	69.7%	8.6%	44.2%	36.7%
2026-10-17T09:16:31+00:00	20.9%	69.7%	8.6%	44.2%	36.7%
2026-10-17T10:01:48+00:00	20.9%	69.7%	8.6%	44.2%	36.7%
2026-10-17T10:46:53+00:00	20.9%	69.7%	8.6%	44.2%	36.7%
2026-10-17T11:32:01+00:00	20.9%	45.0%	9.8%	44.2%	36.7%
2026-10-17T12:17:26+00:00	20.9%	45.0%	9.8%	44.2%	36.7%
2026-10-17T13:02:32+00:00	20.9%	45.0%	9.8%	44.2%	36.7%
2026-10-17T13:47:49+00:00	20.2%	45.0%	9.8%	44.2%	36.7%
2026-10-17T14:39:15+00:00	20.1%	45.0%	9.8%	44.2%	36.7%
2026-10-17T15:24:31+00:00	20.1%	43.4%	9.8%	44.2%	36.7%
2026-10-17T16:10:30+00:00	20.1%	43.4%	9.8%	44.2%	36.7%
2026-10-17T16:55:38+00:00	20.1%	43.4%	13.6%	44.2%	36.7%
2026-10-17T17:40:47+00:00	20.1%	43.4%	13.6%	44.2%	36.7%
2026-10-17T18:25:55+00:00	20.1%	43.4%	13.6%	44.2%	36.7%
2026-10-17T19:11:02+00:00	20.1%	43.4%	13.6%	44.2%	36.7%
2026-10-17T19:56:10+00:00	22.3%	43.4%	13.6%	41.3%	48.9%
2026-10-17T20:41:26+00:00	22.3%	43.4%	13.6%	41.3%	48.9%
2026-10-17T21:26:36+00:00	22.3%	43.4%	13.6%	41.3%	48.9%
2026-10-17T22:11:52+00:00	22.3%	43.4%	13.6%	41.3%	48.9%
2026-10-17T22:57:00+00:00	22.3%	43.4%	19.2%	41.3%	48.9%
2026-10-17T23:42:11+00:00	22.3%	43.4%	19.2%	41.3%	48.9%
2026-10-18T00:27:22+00:00	22.3%	43.4%	19.2%	41.3%	48.9%
2026-10-18T01:12:51+00:00	22.3%	43.4%	19.2%	41.3%	48.9%
2026-10-18T01:58:11+00:00	20.1%	43.4%	19.2%	41.3%	48.9%
2026-10-18T02:43:19+00:00	20.1%	43.4%	19.2%	41.3%	48.9%
2026-10-18T03:28:27+00:00	20.1%	43.4%	19.2%	41.3%	48.9%
2026-10-18T04:13:49+00:00	20.1%	43.4%	19.2%	41.3%	48.9%
2026-10-18T05:00:12+00:00	20.1%	43.4%	18.3%	41.3%	48.9%
2026-10-18T05:45:18+00:00	20.1%	43.4%	18.3%	41.3%	48.9%
2026-10-18T06:30:25+00:00	20.1%	43.4%	18.3%	41.3%	48.9%
2026-10-18T07:15:32+00:00	20.1%	43.4%	18.3%	41.3%	48.9%
2026-10-18T08:00:59+00:00	19.4%	43.4%	18.3%	39.4%	71.5%
2026-10-18T08:47:09+00:00	19.4%	43.4%	18.3%	39.4%	71.5%
2026-10-18T09:32:17+00:00	19.4%	43.4%	18.3%	39.4%	71.5%
2026-10-18T10:17:25+00:00	19.4%	43.4%	18.3%	39.4%	71.5%
2026-10-18T11:02:36+00:00	19.4%	48.3%	20.5%	39.4%	71.5%
2026-10-18T11:48:11+00:00	19.4%	48.3%	20.5%	39.4%	71.5%
2026-10-18T12:33:25+00:00	19.4%	48.3%	20.5%	39.4%	71.5%
2026-10-18T13:18:59+00:00	19.4%	48.3%	20.5%	39.4%	71.5%
2026-10-18T14:04:08+00:00	23.1%	48.3%	20.5%	39.4%	71.3%
2026-10-18T14:55:38+00:00	23.1%	48.3%	20.5%	39.4%	71.3%
2026-10-18T15:41:27+00:00	23.1%	56.1%	20.5%	39.4%	71.3%
2026-10-18T16:26:50+00:00	23.1%	56.1%	20.5%	39.4%	71.3%
2026-10-18T17:12:05+00:00	23.1%	56.1%	20.5%	39.4%	71.3%
2026-10-18T17:57:19+00:00	23.1%	56.1%	20.5%	39.4%	71.3%
2026-10-18T18:42:46+00:00	23.1%	56.1%	20.5%	39.4%	71.3%
2026-10-18T19:27:55+00:00	23.1%	56.1%	20.5%	37.3%	75.0%
2026-10-18T20:13:05+00:00	23.1%	56.1%	20.5%	37.3%	75.0%
2026-10-18T20:58:14+00:00	23.1%	56.1%	20.5%	37.3%	75.0%
2026-10-18T21:43:23+00:00	23.1%	56.1%	20.5%	37.3%	75.0%
2026-10-18T22:28:31+00:00	23.1%	56.1%	20.5%	37.3%	75.0%
2026-10-18T23:13:39+00:00	23.1%	56.1%	19.5%	37.3%	75.0%
2026-10-18T23:58:49+00:00	23.1%	56.1%	19.5%	37.3%	75.0%
2026-10-19T00:44:04+00:00	23.1%	56.1%	19.5%	37.3%	75.0%
2026-10-19T01:29:30+00:00	22.3%	56.1%	19.5%	37.3%	75.0%
2026-10-19T02:14:44+00:00	22.3%	56.1%	19.5%	37.3%	75.0%
2026-10-19T02:59:54+00:00	22.3%	56.1%	19.5%	37.3%	75.0%
2026-10-19T03:45:03+00:00	22.3%	56.1%	19.5%	37.3%	75.0%
2026-10-19T04:30:31+00:00	22.3%	56.1%	19.5%	37.3%	75.0%
2026-10-19T05:16:57+00:00	22.3%	56.1%	16.8%	37.3%	75.0%
2026-10-19T06:02:11+00:00	22.3%	56.1%	16.8%	37.3%	75.0%
2026-10-19T06:47:19+00:00	22.3%	56.1%	16.8%	37.3%	75.0%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
ICON	75%	65.1°F	3.5°F	2026-10-18 12:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	56%	67.1°F	2.6°F	2026-10-18 00:00	Pending
National Blend	41%	68.0°F	2.2°F	2026-10-19 00:00	Pending
NWS forecast	41%	68.0°F	2.2°F	2026-10-19 03:00	Pending
IFS HRES	37%	68.7°F	3.7°F	2026-10-18 12:00	Pending
AIFS Single	22%	70.5°F	3.9°F	2026-10-18 18:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	17%	70.3°F	2.9°F	2026-10-18 18:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≤ 67°F · KCHS

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KCHS-20261019-TMAX-LE67
Opened Oct 15 · 07:49 UTC

Original listing: Charleston stays cold-for-here: high ≤ 67°F · Mon Oct 19

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗