KCHS / Mon Oct 19 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Charleston, SCHigh ≤ 67°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST40%Oct 19 · 06:47 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

75%

56%

37%

22%

17%

Consensus

40%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

ICONYES 45.9¢Risks 45.90u

WN2NO 54.1¢Risks 54.10u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

ICON +54.10u · WN2 −54.10u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-10-04T06:00:00+00:00	59.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-04T12:00:00+00:00	62.1%	—	—	—	—	51.6%
2026-10-04T18:00:00+00:00	22.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-05T00:00:00+00:00	5.2%	—	—	—	—	14.3%
2026-10-05T06:00:00+00:00	11.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-05T12:00:00+00:00	24.0%	—	—	—	—	22.4%
2026-10-05T18:00:00+00:00	80.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-06T00:00:00+00:00	48.4%	—	—	—	—	12.6%
2026-10-06T06:00:00+00:00	91.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-06T12:00:00+00:00	35.4%	—	—	—	—	23.2%
2026-10-06T18:00:00+00:00	31.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T00:00:00+00:00	5.6%	—	—	—	—	21.2%
2026-10-07T06:00:00+00:00	7.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T12:00:00+00:00	3.0%	—	—	—	—	12.8%
2026-10-07T18:00:00+00:00	7.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T00:00:00+00:00	7.5%	—	—	—	—	23.2%
2026-10-08T06:00:00+00:00	8.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T12:00:00+00:00	1.5%	—	—	—	—	23.9%
2026-10-08T18:00:00+00:00	84.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T00:00:00+00:00	75.9%	—	—	—	—	19.6%
2026-10-09T06:00:00+00:00	76.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:00	85.7%	—	—	—	—	11.3%
2026-10-09T18:00:00+00:00	39.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:00	37.9%	—	—	—	—	15.2%
2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:00	56.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00	12.7%	—	94.3%	—	—	12.1%
2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00	14.6%	—	80.3%	—	—	—
2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00	24.4%	—	—	—	—	13.2%
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00	16.8%	—	63.2%	—	—	—
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00	7.1%	—	48.7%	—	—	9.0%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00	5.9%	—	10.3%	—	—	—
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00	10.5%	72.9%	2.9%	—	—	6.8%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00	11.3%	—	2.9%	—	—	—
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00	9.6%	9.3%	4.9%	78.6%	—	9.0%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00	7.8%	—	4.5%	—	—	—
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00	7.9%	4.9%	2.2%	8.2%	—	7.1%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00	10.8%	—	0.7%	—	—	—
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00	7.3%	4.8%	1.8%	15.5%	—	6.8%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00	20.0%	—	1.3%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00	20.6%	6.9%	2.0%	91.6%	—	16.9%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00	19.5%	85.6%	0.7%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00	28.6%	53.3%	1.6%	88.8%	—	37.7%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00	18.4%	27.4%	0.7%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00	74.5%	35.4%	8.6%	81.6%	—	33.8%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00	11.6%	17.8%	2.8%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00	61.8%	33.9%	5.0%	11.5%	—	33.9%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00	60.3%	34.3%	23.1%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00	64.3%	25.5%	33.0%	14.7%	—	69.6%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00	61.8%	39.1%	25.7%	—	—	60.9%
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00	61.2%	41.8%	25.1%	25.1%	—	38.8%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00	56.3%	33.5%	26.2%	—	—	42.6%
2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00	53.3%	34.1%	27.3%	41.3%	99.9%	48.9%
2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00	51.1%	46.6%	22.3%	100.0%	—	50.0%
2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00	54.6%	45.4%	16.8%	51.2%	80.1%	52.3%
2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00	51.2%	54.8%	16.0%	53.6%	—	50.0%
2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00	51.2%	58.7%	13.7%	55.0%	99.9%	51.2%
2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00	59.0%	60.2%	17.4%	44.9%	—	53.9%
2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00	59.3%	64.4%	16.5%	51.3%	80.0%	51.3%
2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00	58.3%	61.0%	17.3%	47.2%	—	—
2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00	60.1%	62.8%	11.5%	42.8%	55.8%	—

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
ICON	75%	65.1°F	3.5°F	2026-10-18 12:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	56%	67.1°F	2.6°F	2026-10-18 00:00	Pending
National Blend	41%	68.0°F	2.2°F	2026-10-19 00:00	Pending
NWS forecast	41%	68.0°F	2.2°F	2026-10-19 03:00	Pending
IFS HRES	37%	68.7°F	3.7°F	2026-10-18 12:00	Pending
AIFS Single	22%	70.5°F	3.9°F	2026-10-18 18:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	17%	70.3°F	2.9°F	2026-10-18 18:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≤ 67°F · KCHS

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KCHS-20261019-TMAX-LE67
Opened Oct 15 · 07:49 UTC

Original listing: Charleston stays cold-for-here: high ≤ 67°F · Mon Oct 19

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗