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KCHS / Tue Oct 20 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Charleston, SCHigh ≥ 76°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST76%Oct 14 · 02:14 UTC
THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%
WN2
91%
AIFS
81%
HRES
74%
ICON
72%
EPS
69%
Consensus
76%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED
WN2YES 79.9¢Risks 79.90u
VS
EPSNO 20.1¢Risks 20.10u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

WN2 +20.10u · EPS −20.10u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

RecordedReconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

0%25%50%75%100%AIFS Single: 83.6% · 2026-10-13T11:05:13+00:00AIFS Single: 83.6% · 2026-10-13T11:50:34+00:00AIFS Single: 83.6% · 2026-10-13T12:35:48+00:00AIFS Single: 83.6% · 2026-10-13T13:20:54+00:00AIFS Single: 81.8% · 2026-10-13T14:06:01+00:00AIFS Single: 81.8% · 2026-10-13T14:56:03+00:00AIFS Single: 81.8% · 2026-10-13T15:41:23+00:00AIFS Single: 81.8% · 2026-10-13T16:27:01+00:00AIFS Single: 81.8% · 2026-10-13T17:12:09+00:00AIFS Single: 81.8% · 2026-10-13T17:57:16+00:00AIFS Single: 81.8% · 2026-10-13T18:42:22+00:00AIFS Single: 86.1% · 2026-10-13T19:27:27+00:00AIFS Single: 86.1% · 2026-10-13T20:12:33+00:00AIFS Single: 86.1% · 2026-10-13T20:57:42+00:00AIFS Single: 86.1% · 2026-10-13T21:43:06+00:00AIFS Single: 86.1% · 2026-10-13T22:28:23+00:00AIFS Single: 86.1% · 2026-10-13T23:13:33+00:00AIFS Single: 86.1% · 2026-10-13T23:58:43+00:00AIFS Single: 86.1% · 2026-10-14T00:43:52+00:00AIFS Single: 81.3% · 2026-10-14T01:29:08+00:00AIFS Single: 81.3% · 2026-10-14T02:14:17+00:00IFS Ensemble: 67.9% · 2026-10-13T11:05:13+00:00IFS Ensemble: 67.9% · 2026-10-13T11:50:34+00:00IFS Ensemble: 67.9% · 2026-10-13T12:35:48+00:00IFS Ensemble: 67.9% · 2026-10-13T13:20:54+00:00IFS Ensemble: 67.9% · 2026-10-13T14:06:01+00:00IFS Ensemble: 69.1% · 2026-10-13T14:56:03+00:00IFS Ensemble: 69.1% · 2026-10-13T15:41:23+00:00IFS Ensemble: 69.1% · 2026-10-13T16:27:01+00:00IFS Ensemble: 69.1% · 2026-10-13T17:12:09+00:00IFS Ensemble: 69.1% · 2026-10-13T17:57:16+00:00IFS Ensemble: 69.1% · 2026-10-13T18:42:22+00:00IFS Ensemble: 69.1% · 2026-10-13T19:27:27+00:00IFS Ensemble: 69.1% · 2026-10-13T20:12:33+00:00IFS Ensemble: 69.1% · 2026-10-13T20:57:42+00:00IFS Ensemble: 69.1% · 2026-10-13T21:43:06+00:00IFS Ensemble: 69.1% · 2026-10-13T22:28:23+00:00IFS Ensemble: 69.1% · 2026-10-13T23:13:33+00:00IFS Ensemble: 69.1% · 2026-10-13T23:58:43+00:00IFS Ensemble: 69.1% · 2026-10-14T00:43:52+00:00IFS Ensemble: 69.1% · 2026-10-14T01:29:08+00:00IFS Ensemble: 69.1% · 2026-10-14T02:14:17+00:00WeatherNext 2: 84.8% · 2026-10-13T11:05:13+00:00WeatherNext 2: 84.8% · 2026-10-13T11:50:34+00:00WeatherNext 2: 84.8% · 2026-10-13T12:35:48+00:00WeatherNext 2: 84.8% · 2026-10-13T13:20:54+00:00WeatherNext 2: 84.7% · 2026-10-13T14:06:01+00:00WeatherNext 2: 84.7% · 2026-10-13T14:56:03+00:00WeatherNext 2: 84.7% · 2026-10-13T15:41:23+00:00WeatherNext 2: 84.7% · 2026-10-13T16:27:01+00:00WeatherNext 2: 87.0% · 2026-10-13T17:12:09+00:00WeatherNext 2: 87.0% · 2026-10-13T17:57:16+00:00WeatherNext 2: 87.0% · 2026-10-13T18:42:22+00:00WeatherNext 2: 87.0% · 2026-10-13T19:27:27+00:00WeatherNext 2: 87.0% · 2026-10-13T20:12:33+00:00WeatherNext 2: 87.0% · 2026-10-13T20:57:42+00:00WeatherNext 2: 87.0% · 2026-10-13T21:43:06+00:00WeatherNext 2: 87.0% · 2026-10-13T22:28:23+00:00WeatherNext 2: 90.7% · 2026-10-13T23:13:33+00:00WeatherNext 2: 90.7% · 2026-10-13T23:58:43+00:00WeatherNext 2: 90.7% · 2026-10-14T00:43:52+00:00WeatherNext 2: 90.7% · 2026-10-14T01:29:08+00:00WeatherNext 2: 90.7% · 2026-10-14T02:14:17+00:00IFS HRES: 71.0% · 2026-10-13T11:05:13+00:00IFS HRES: 71.0% · 2026-10-13T11:50:34+00:00IFS HRES: 71.0% · 2026-10-13T12:35:48+00:00IFS HRES: 71.0% · 2026-10-13T13:20:54+00:00IFS HRES: 71.0% · 2026-10-13T14:06:01+00:00IFS HRES: 71.0% · 2026-10-13T14:56:03+00:00IFS HRES: 71.0% · 2026-10-13T15:41:23+00:00IFS HRES: 71.0% · 2026-10-13T16:27:01+00:00IFS HRES: 71.0% · 2026-10-13T17:12:09+00:00IFS HRES: 71.0% · 2026-10-13T17:57:16+00:00IFS HRES: 71.0% · 2026-10-13T18:42:22+00:00IFS HRES: 71.0% · 2026-10-13T19:27:27+00:00IFS HRES: 71.0% · 2026-10-13T20:12:33+00:00IFS HRES: 71.0% · 2026-10-13T20:57:42+00:00IFS HRES: 71.0% · 2026-10-13T21:43:06+00:00IFS HRES: 73.6% · 2026-10-13T22:28:23+00:00IFS HRES: 73.6% · 2026-10-13T23:13:33+00:00IFS HRES: 73.6% · 2026-10-13T23:58:43+00:00IFS HRES: 73.6% · 2026-10-14T00:43:52+00:00IFS HRES: 73.6% · 2026-10-14T01:29:08+00:00IFS HRES: 73.6% · 2026-10-14T02:14:17+00:00ICON: 42.8% · 2026-10-13T11:05:13+00:00ICON: 42.8% · 2026-10-13T11:50:34+00:00ICON: 42.8% · 2026-10-13T12:35:48+00:00ICON: 42.8% · 2026-10-13T13:20:54+00:00ICON: 42.8% · 2026-10-13T14:06:01+00:00ICON: 42.8% · 2026-10-13T14:56:03+00:00ICON: 42.8% · 2026-10-13T15:41:23+00:00ICON: 42.8% · 2026-10-13T16:27:01+00:00ICON: 42.8% · 2026-10-13T17:12:09+00:00ICON: 42.8% · 2026-10-13T17:57:16+00:00ICON: 42.8% · 2026-10-13T18:42:22+00:00ICON: 72.0% · 2026-10-13T19:27:27+00:00ICON: 72.0% · 2026-10-13T20:12:33+00:00ICON: 72.0% · 2026-10-13T20:57:42+00:00ICON: 72.0% · 2026-10-13T21:43:06+00:00ICON: 72.0% · 2026-10-13T22:28:23+00:00ICON: 72.0% · 2026-10-13T23:13:33+00:00ICON: 72.0% · 2026-10-13T23:58:43+00:00ICON: 72.0% · 2026-10-14T00:43:52+00:00ICON: 72.0% · 2026-10-14T01:29:08+00:00ICON: 72.0% · 2026-10-14T02:14:17+00:0010-13 11:0510-13 18:4210-14 02:14
AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON
2026-10-14T02:14:17+00:00 · UTC
View the forecast data
UTCAIFSEPSWN2HRESICON
2026-10-13T11:05:13+00:0083.6%67.9%84.8%71.0%42.8%
2026-10-13T11:50:34+00:0083.6%67.9%84.8%71.0%42.8%
2026-10-13T12:35:48+00:0083.6%67.9%84.8%71.0%42.8%
2026-10-13T13:20:54+00:0083.6%67.9%84.8%71.0%42.8%
2026-10-13T14:06:01+00:0081.8%67.9%84.7%71.0%42.8%
2026-10-13T14:56:03+00:0081.8%69.1%84.7%71.0%42.8%
2026-10-13T15:41:23+00:0081.8%69.1%84.7%71.0%42.8%
2026-10-13T16:27:01+00:0081.8%69.1%84.7%71.0%42.8%
2026-10-13T17:12:09+00:0081.8%69.1%87.0%71.0%42.8%
2026-10-13T17:57:16+00:0081.8%69.1%87.0%71.0%42.8%
2026-10-13T18:42:22+00:0081.8%69.1%87.0%71.0%42.8%
2026-10-13T19:27:27+00:0086.1%69.1%87.0%71.0%72.0%
2026-10-13T20:12:33+00:0086.1%69.1%87.0%71.0%72.0%
2026-10-13T20:57:42+00:0086.1%69.1%87.0%71.0%72.0%
2026-10-13T21:43:06+00:0086.1%69.1%87.0%71.0%72.0%
2026-10-13T22:28:23+00:0086.1%69.1%87.0%73.6%72.0%
2026-10-13T23:13:33+00:0086.1%69.1%90.7%73.6%72.0%
2026-10-13T23:58:43+00:0086.1%69.1%90.7%73.6%72.0%
2026-10-14T00:43:52+00:0086.1%69.1%90.7%73.6%72.0%
2026-10-14T01:29:08+00:0081.3%69.1%90.7%73.6%72.0%
2026-10-14T02:14:17+00:0081.3%69.1%90.7%73.6%72.0%
THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODELYESMEANSPREAD σINITIALIZATION UTCBRIER ↓
WeatherNext 291%82.1°F5.0°F2026-10-13 12:00Pending
AIFS Single81%80.5°F5.6°F2026-10-13 18:00Pending
IFS HRES74%79.5°F6.3°F2026-10-13 12:00Pending
ICON72%81.3°F9.9°F2026-10-13 12:00Pending
IFS Ensemble69%76.9°F2.8°F2026-10-13 00:00Pending
National Blend57%76.0°F2.6°F2026-10-13 06:00Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 76°F · KCHS

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KCHS-20261020-TMAX-GE76
Opened Oct 13 · 11:05 UTC

Original listing: Charleston high ≥ 76°F · Tue Oct 20

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗