KCHS / Tue Oct 20 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Charleston, SCHigh ≥ 76°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST76%Oct 14 · 02:14 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

91%

81%

74%

72%

69%

Consensus

76%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

WN2YES 79.9¢Risks 79.90u

EPSNO 20.1¢Risks 20.10u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

WN2 +20.10u · EPS −20.10u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-20T12:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-10-05T06:00:00+00:00	38.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-05T12:00:00+00:00	1.5%	—	—	—	—	6.9%
2026-10-05T18:00:00+00:00	11.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-06T00:00:00+00:00	45.8%	—	—	—	—	56.9%
2026-10-06T06:00:00+00:00	11.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-06T12:00:00+00:00	50.5%	—	—	—	—	46.8%
2026-10-06T18:00:00+00:00	54.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T00:00:00+00:00	66.5%	—	—	—	—	42.1%
2026-10-07T06:00:00+00:00	80.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T12:00:00+00:00	81.8%	—	—	—	—	55.8%
2026-10-07T18:00:00+00:00	75.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T00:00:00+00:00	80.3%	—	—	—	—	41.0%
2026-10-08T06:00:00+00:00	40.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T12:00:00+00:00	85.7%	—	—	—	—	44.2%
2026-10-08T18:00:00+00:00	13.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T00:00:00+00:00	16.2%	—	—	—	—	48.4%
2026-10-09T06:00:00+00:00	13.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:00	13.6%	—	—	—	—	56.9%
2026-10-09T18:00:00+00:00	51.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:00	51.6%	—	—	—	—	58.7%
2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:00	33.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00	51.7%	—	—	—	—	63.9%
2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00	54.6%	—	0.2%	—	—	—
2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00	51.8%	—	—	—	—	61.0%
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00	59.5%	—	38.2%	—	—	—
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00	70.3%	—	—	—	—	65.9%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00	73.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00	64.7%	—	82.4%	—	—	67.6%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00	62.6%	—	86.9%	—	—	—
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00	64.6%	—	55.8%	—	—	59.0%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00	61.8%	—	82.8%	—	—	—
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00	60.7%	14.3%	74.6%	—	—	61.3%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00	57.5%	—	87.3%	—	—	—
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00	65.1%	59.1%	70.2%	11.5%	—	67.7%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00	57.1%	—	48.6%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00	55.1%	75.1%	75.1%	11.7%	—	47.1%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00	46.3%	—	88.1%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00	19.5%	25.8%	78.4%	46.9%	—	27.7%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00	15.9%	—	78.9%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00	16.4%	43.6%	64.1%	36.7%	—	28.1%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00	30.4%	0.5%	76.9%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00	20.1%	40.9%	43.4%	36.9%	—	29.3%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00	15.7%	32.6%	50.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00	15.1%	31.4%	46.5%	35.4%	—	12.7%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00	24.9%	35.1%	62.4%	—	—	17.2%
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00	24.4%	44.5%	56.4%	11.5%	—	23.7%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00	27.6%	50.0%	50.9%	—	—	26.1%
2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00	34.8%	39.4%	52.9%	14.2%	—	28.7%
2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00	35.3%	43.0%	59.9%	—	—	32.6%
2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00	33.0%	38.8%	66.0%	26.8%	0.0%	34.9%
2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00	33.5%	26.2%	60.5%	—	—	34.5%
2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00	39.2%	21.3%	60.8%	26.4%	—	31.1%
2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00	33.6%	14.8%	50.0%	0.0%	—	25.8%
2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00	28.0%	9.0%	51.2%	19.1%	0.0%	24.2%
2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00	29.3%	14.5%	45.2%	17.5%	—	—
2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00	30.9%	11.8%	50.0%	21.7%	4.6%	23.6%
2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00	26.9%	14.3%	50.0%	18.2%	—	19.1%
2026-10-19T12:00:00+00:00	23.0%	12.0%	47.3%	14.1%	1.9%	17.3%
2026-10-19T18:00:00+00:00	24.2%	18.2%	50.0%	21.1%	—	20.1%
2026-10-20T00:00:00+00:00	26.8%	19.1%	60.1%	26.8%	8.3%	24.5%
2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00	17.2%	—	64.8%	21.3%	—	15.3%
2026-10-20T12:00:00+00:00	—	—	68.3%	—	7.7%	—

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
WeatherNext 2	91%	82.1°F	5.0°F	2026-10-13 12:00	Pending
AIFS Single	81%	80.5°F	5.6°F	2026-10-13 18:00	Pending
IFS HRES	74%	79.5°F	6.3°F	2026-10-13 12:00	Pending
ICON	72%	81.3°F	9.9°F	2026-10-13 12:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	69%	76.9°F	2.8°F	2026-10-13 00:00	Pending
National Blend	57%	76.0°F	2.6°F	2026-10-13 06:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 76°F · KCHS

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KCHS-20261020-TMAX-GE76
Opened Oct 13 · 11:05 UTC

Original listing: Charleston high ≥ 76°F · Tue Oct 20

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗