KCHS / Tue Oct 20 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Charleston, SCHigh ≥ 77°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST36%Oct 15 · 14:48 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

57%

56%

52%

26%

14%

Consensus

36%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

WN2YES 35.4¢Risks 35.35u

EPSNO 64.7¢Risks 64.65u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

WN2 +64.65u · EPS −64.65u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-15T14:48:23+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	EPS	WN2	HRES	ICON
2026-10-13T08:02:58+00:00	78.8%	70.5%	84.8%	65.3%	38.9%
2026-10-13T08:49:39+00:00	78.8%	70.5%	84.8%	65.3%	38.9%
2026-10-13T09:34:44+00:00	78.8%	70.5%	84.8%	65.3%	38.9%
2026-10-13T10:19:54+00:00	78.8%	70.5%	84.8%	65.3%	38.9%
2026-10-14T02:59:33+00:00	76.2%	55.7%	87.0%	68.2%	68.6%
2026-10-14T03:45:27+00:00	76.2%	55.7%	87.0%	68.2%	68.6%
2026-10-14T04:30:44+00:00	76.2%	55.7%	87.0%	68.2%	68.6%
2026-10-14T05:15:51+00:00	76.2%	55.7%	87.0%	68.2%	68.6%
2026-10-14T06:00:58+00:00	76.2%	55.7%	87.0%	68.2%	68.6%
2026-10-14T06:46:12+00:00	76.2%	55.7%	87.0%	68.2%	68.6%
2026-10-14T07:31:26+00:00	74.5%	55.7%	87.0%	68.2%	81.4%
2026-10-14T08:16:34+00:00	74.5%	55.7%	87.0%	68.2%	81.4%
2026-10-14T09:01:44+00:00	74.5%	55.7%	87.0%	68.2%	81.4%
2026-10-14T09:46:51+00:00	74.5%	55.7%	87.0%	68.2%	81.4%
2026-10-14T10:32:26+00:00	74.5%	55.7%	87.0%	54.9%	81.4%
2026-10-14T11:20:42+00:00	74.5%	26.7%	63.6%	54.9%	81.4%
2026-10-14T12:06:11+00:00	74.5%	26.7%	63.6%	54.9%	81.4%
2026-10-14T12:51:19+00:00	74.5%	26.7%	63.6%	54.9%	81.4%
2026-10-14T13:36:26+00:00	66.1%	26.7%	63.6%	54.9%	81.4%
2026-10-14T14:26:49+00:00	66.5%	26.8%	63.4%	54.8%	81.4%
2026-10-14T15:12:07+00:00	66.5%	27.0%	63.4%	54.8%	81.4%
2026-10-14T15:57:54+00:00	66.5%	27.0%	63.4%	54.8%	81.4%
2026-10-14T16:43:03+00:00	66.5%	27.0%	63.4%	54.8%	81.4%
2026-10-14T17:28:11+00:00	66.5%	27.0%	63.4%	54.8%	81.4%
2026-10-14T18:13:19+00:00	66.5%	27.0%	63.4%	54.8%	81.4%
2026-10-14T18:58:26+00:00	66.5%	27.0%	63.4%	54.8%	81.4%
2026-10-14T19:43:32+00:00	36.9%	27.0%	63.4%	32.4%	45.5%
2026-10-14T20:28:48+00:00	36.9%	27.0%	63.4%	32.4%	45.5%
2026-10-14T21:13:55+00:00	36.9%	27.0%	63.4%	32.4%	45.5%
2026-10-14T21:59:01+00:00	36.9%	27.0%	63.4%	32.4%	45.5%
2026-10-14T22:44:08+00:00	36.9%	27.0%	63.4%	32.4%	45.5%
2026-10-14T23:29:32+00:00	36.9%	27.0%	57.6%	32.4%	45.5%
2026-10-15T00:14:40+00:00	36.9%	27.0%	57.6%	32.4%	45.5%
2026-10-15T01:01:10+00:00	36.9%	27.0%	57.6%	32.4%	45.5%
2026-10-15T01:46:16+00:00	33.5%	27.0%	57.6%	32.4%	45.5%
2026-10-15T02:31:28+00:00	33.5%	27.0%	57.6%	32.4%	45.5%
2026-10-15T03:16:36+00:00	33.5%	27.0%	57.6%	32.4%	45.5%
2026-10-15T04:01:56+00:00	33.5%	27.0%	57.6%	32.4%	45.5%
2026-10-15T04:47:52+00:00	33.5%	27.0%	57.6%	32.4%	45.5%
2026-10-15T05:33:16+00:00	33.5%	27.0%	64.2%	32.4%	45.5%
2026-10-15T06:18:26+00:00	33.5%	27.0%	64.2%	32.4%	45.5%
2026-10-15T07:03:34+00:00	33.5%	27.0%	64.2%	32.4%	45.5%
2026-10-15T07:49:17+00:00	34.4%	27.0%	64.2%	26.1%	55.4%
2026-10-15T08:35:49+00:00	34.4%	27.0%	64.2%	26.1%	55.4%
2026-10-15T09:21:43+00:00	34.4%	27.0%	64.2%	26.1%	55.4%
2026-10-15T10:07:29+00:00	34.4%	27.0%	64.2%	26.1%	55.4%
2026-10-15T10:52:49+00:00	34.4%	27.0%	64.2%	26.1%	55.4%
2026-10-15T11:39:11+00:00	34.4%	27.0%	56.8%	26.1%	55.4%
2026-10-15T12:24:49+00:00	34.4%	13.9%	56.8%	26.1%	55.4%
2026-10-15T13:10:11+00:00	34.4%	13.9%	56.8%	26.1%	55.4%
2026-10-15T13:55:48+00:00	51.6%	13.9%	56.8%	26.1%	56.0%
2026-10-15T14:48:23+00:00	51.6%	13.9%	56.8%	26.1%	56.0%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
WeatherNext 2	57%	77.2°F	4.1°F	2026-10-15 00:00	Pending
ICON	56%	77.4°F	6.0°F	2026-10-15 00:00	Pending
NWS forecast	54%	77.0°F	5.2°F	2026-10-15 03:00	Pending
AIFS Single	52%	76.7°F	5.0°F	2026-10-15 06:00	Pending
National Blend	29%	74.0°F	4.4°F	2026-10-15 06:00	Pending
IFS HRES	26%	72.8°F	5.8°F	2026-10-15 00:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	14%	72.6°F	3.6°F	2026-10-15 00:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 77°F · KCHS

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KCHS-20261020-TMAX-GE77
Opened Oct 13 · 08:02 UTC

Original listing: Charleston high ≥ 77°F · Tue Oct 20

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗