KCHS / Tue Oct 20 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Charleston, SCHigh ≥ 77°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST36%Oct 15 · 14:48 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

57%

56%

52%

26%

14%

Consensus

36%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

WN2YES 35.4¢Risks 35.35u

EPSNO 64.7¢Risks 64.65u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

WN2 +64.65u · EPS −64.65u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-10-05T06:00:00+00:00	33.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-05T12:00:00+00:00	1.1%	—	—	—	—	5.3%
2026-10-05T18:00:00+00:00	9.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-06T00:00:00+00:00	40.5%	—	—	—	—	51.6%
2026-10-06T06:00:00+00:00	9.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-06T12:00:00+00:00	45.2%	—	—	—	—	41.5%
2026-10-06T18:00:00+00:00	49.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T00:00:00+00:00	61.5%	—	—	—	—	36.9%
2026-10-07T06:00:00+00:00	76.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T12:00:00+00:00	78.0%	—	—	—	—	50.5%
2026-10-07T18:00:00+00:00	70.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T00:00:00+00:00	76.4%	—	—	—	—	35.9%
2026-10-08T06:00:00+00:00	34.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T12:00:00+00:00	82.5%	—	—	—	—	39.0%
2026-10-08T18:00:00+00:00	10.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T00:00:00+00:00	13.1%	—	—	—	—	43.1%
2026-10-09T06:00:00+00:00	10.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:00	10.9%	—	—	—	—	51.6%
2026-10-09T18:00:00+00:00	46.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:00	46.2%	—	—	—	—	53.3%
2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:00	28.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00	46.0%	—	—	—	—	58.5%
2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00	48.9%	—	0.1%	—	—	—
2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00	45.9%	—	—	—	—	55.3%
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00	53.6%	—	32.7%	—	—	—
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00	64.8%	—	—	—	—	60.2%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00	67.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00	58.7%	—	78.0%	—	—	61.8%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00	56.4%	—	83.2%	—	—	—
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00	58.4%	—	49.4%	—	—	52.6%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00	55.3%	—	78.3%	—	—	—
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00	54.0%	10.8%	68.8%	—	—	54.7%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00	50.7%	—	83.3%	—	—	—
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00	58.4%	52.1%	63.8%	8.5%	—	61.1%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00	50.0%	—	41.5%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00	47.8%	69.0%	69.0%	8.4%	—	39.9%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00	38.9%	—	84.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00	14.6%	20.0%	72.4%	39.4%	—	21.6%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00	11.6%	—	72.8%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00	11.9%	35.9%	56.4%	29.5%	—	21.8%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00	23.7%	0.3%	70.3%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00	14.8%	33.0%	35.3%	29.3%	—	22.5%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00	11.1%	25.3%	41.5%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00	10.5%	24.1%	37.9%	27.7%	—	8.6%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00	18.4%	27.1%	53.6%	—	—	12.1%
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00	17.8%	35.6%	47.2%	7.6%	—	17.2%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00	20.3%	40.6%	41.5%	—	—	19.0%
2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00	26.3%	30.4%	43.2%	9.4%	—	21.0%
2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00	26.5%	33.5%	50.0%	—	—	24.1%
2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00	24.3%	29.4%	56.1%	19.0%	0.0%	25.9%
2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00	24.5%	18.3%	50.0%	—	—	25.3%
2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00	29.2%	14.3%	50.0%	18.3%	—	22.1%
2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00	24.0%	9.2%	38.9%	0.0%	—	17.5%
2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00	19.1%	5.1%	39.6%	12.1%	0.0%	16.0%
2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00	19.9%	8.7%	33.6%	10.8%	—	—
2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00	20.8%	6.7%	37.7%	13.7%	2.3%	15.1%
2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00	17.4%	8.2%	37.3%	10.9%	—	11.5%
2026-10-19T12:00:00+00:00	14.1%	6.5%	34.3%	7.9%	0.8%	10.1%
2026-10-19T18:00:00+00:00	14.7%	10.4%	36.3%	12.4%	—	11.8%
2026-10-20T00:00:00+00:00	16.3%	10.8%	45.7%	16.3%	4.0%	14.6%
2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00	9.2%	—	50.0%	12.0%	—	8.0%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
WeatherNext 2	57%	77.2°F	4.1°F	2026-10-15 00:00	Pending
ICON	56%	77.4°F	6.0°F	2026-10-15 00:00	Pending
NWS forecast	54%	77.0°F	5.2°F	2026-10-15 03:00	Pending
AIFS Single	52%	76.7°F	5.0°F	2026-10-15 06:00	Pending
National Blend	29%	74.0°F	4.4°F	2026-10-15 06:00	Pending
IFS HRES	26%	72.8°F	5.8°F	2026-10-15 00:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	14%	72.6°F	3.6°F	2026-10-15 00:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 77°F · KCHS

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KCHS-20261020-TMAX-GE77
Opened Oct 13 · 08:02 UTC

Original listing: Charleston high ≥ 77°F · Tue Oct 20

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗