KCHS / Tue Oct 20 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Charleston, SCHigh ≥ 84°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST2%Oct 15 · 19:21 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

15%

11%

<1%

Consensus

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

ICONYES 7.8¢Risks 3.88u

EPSNO 92.2¢Risks 46.12u

50 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

ICON +46.12u · EPS −46.12u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-15T19:21:06+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	EPS	WN2	HRES	ICON
2026-10-13T08:02:59+00:00	32.8%	1.6%	39.0%	23.9%	16.1%
2026-10-13T08:49:39+00:00	32.8%	1.6%	39.0%	23.9%	16.1%
2026-10-13T09:34:44+00:00	32.8%	1.6%	39.0%	23.9%	16.1%
2026-10-13T10:19:54+00:00	32.8%	1.6%	39.0%	23.9%	16.1%
2026-10-13T11:05:13+00:00	32.8%	0.8%	28.0%	23.9%	16.1%
2026-10-13T11:50:34+00:00	32.8%	0.8%	28.0%	23.9%	16.1%
2026-10-13T12:35:48+00:00	32.8%	0.8%	28.0%	23.9%	16.1%
2026-10-13T13:20:54+00:00	32.8%	0.8%	28.0%	23.9%	16.1%
2026-10-13T14:06:01+00:00	30.3%	0.8%	28.0%	23.9%	16.2%
2026-10-13T14:56:03+00:00	30.3%	0.9%	28.0%	23.9%	16.2%
2026-10-13T15:41:23+00:00	30.3%	0.9%	28.0%	23.9%	16.2%
2026-10-13T16:27:01+00:00	30.3%	0.9%	28.0%	23.9%	16.2%
2026-10-13T17:12:09+00:00	30.3%	0.9%	31.5%	23.9%	16.2%
2026-10-13T17:57:16+00:00	30.3%	0.9%	31.5%	23.9%	16.2%
2026-10-13T18:42:22+00:00	30.3%	0.9%	31.5%	23.9%	16.2%
2026-10-13T19:27:27+00:00	36.8%	0.9%	31.5%	23.9%	41.2%
2026-10-13T20:12:33+00:00	36.8%	0.9%	31.5%	23.9%	41.2%
2026-10-13T20:57:42+00:00	36.8%	0.9%	31.5%	23.9%	41.2%
2026-10-13T21:43:06+00:00	36.8%	0.9%	31.5%	23.9%	41.2%
2026-10-13T22:28:23+00:00	36.8%	0.9%	31.5%	26.4%	41.2%
2026-10-13T23:13:33+00:00	36.8%	0.9%	38.9%	26.4%	41.2%
2026-10-13T23:58:44+00:00	36.8%	0.9%	38.9%	26.4%	41.2%
2026-10-14T00:43:52+00:00	36.8%	0.9%	38.9%	26.4%	41.2%
2026-10-14T01:29:08+00:00	29.7%	0.9%	38.9%	26.4%	41.2%
2026-10-14T02:14:17+00:00	29.7%	0.9%	38.9%	26.4%	41.2%
2026-10-14T02:59:33+00:00	29.7%	0.9%	38.9%	26.4%	41.2%
2026-10-14T03:45:27+00:00	29.7%	0.9%	38.9%	26.4%	41.2%
2026-10-14T04:30:44+00:00	29.7%	0.9%	38.9%	26.4%	41.2%
2026-10-14T05:15:51+00:00	29.7%	0.9%	38.9%	26.4%	41.2%
2026-10-14T06:00:58+00:00	29.7%	0.9%	38.9%	26.4%	41.2%
2026-10-14T06:46:12+00:00	29.7%	0.9%	38.9%	26.4%	41.2%
2026-10-14T07:31:26+00:00	25.5%	0.9%	38.9%	26.4%	46.0%
2026-10-14T08:16:34+00:00	25.5%	0.9%	38.9%	26.4%	46.0%
2026-10-14T09:01:44+00:00	25.5%	0.9%	38.9%	26.4%	46.0%
2026-10-14T09:46:51+00:00	25.5%	0.9%	38.9%	26.4%	46.0%
2026-10-14T10:32:26+00:00	25.5%	0.9%	38.9%	17.2%	46.0%
2026-10-14T11:20:42+00:00	25.5%	0.9%	12.0%	17.2%	46.0%
2026-10-14T12:06:11+00:00	25.5%	0.9%	12.0%	17.2%	46.0%
2026-10-14T12:51:19+00:00	25.5%	0.9%	12.0%	17.2%	46.0%
2026-10-14T13:36:26+00:00	18.3%	0.9%	12.0%	17.2%	46.0%
2026-10-14T14:26:49+00:00	19.2%	0.9%	12.3%	17.3%	46.1%
2026-10-14T15:12:07+00:00	19.2%	0.8%	12.3%	17.3%	46.1%
2026-10-14T15:57:54+00:00	19.2%	0.8%	12.3%	17.3%	46.1%
2026-10-14T16:43:03+00:00	19.2%	0.8%	12.3%	17.3%	46.1%
2026-10-14T17:28:11+00:00	19.2%	0.8%	12.3%	17.3%	46.1%
2026-10-14T18:13:19+00:00	19.2%	0.8%	12.3%	17.3%	46.1%
2026-10-14T18:58:26+00:00	19.2%	0.8%	12.3%	17.3%	46.1%
2026-10-14T19:43:32+00:00	5.1%	0.8%	12.3%	6.4%	13.5%
2026-10-14T20:28:48+00:00	5.1%	0.8%	12.3%	6.4%	13.5%
2026-10-14T21:13:55+00:00	5.1%	0.8%	12.3%	6.4%	13.5%
2026-10-14T21:59:01+00:00	5.1%	0.8%	12.3%	6.4%	13.5%
2026-10-14T22:44:08+00:00	5.1%	0.8%	12.3%	6.4%	13.5%
2026-10-14T23:29:32+00:00	5.1%	0.8%	9.6%	6.4%	13.5%
2026-10-15T00:14:40+00:00	5.1%	0.8%	9.6%	6.4%	13.5%
2026-10-15T01:01:10+00:00	5.1%	0.8%	9.6%	6.4%	13.5%
2026-10-15T01:46:16+00:00	4.2%	0.8%	9.6%	6.4%	13.5%
2026-10-15T02:31:28+00:00	4.2%	0.8%	9.6%	6.4%	13.5%
2026-10-15T03:16:36+00:00	4.2%	0.8%	9.6%	6.4%	13.5%
2026-10-15T04:01:56+00:00	4.2%	0.8%	9.6%	6.4%	13.5%
2026-10-15T04:47:52+00:00	4.2%	0.8%	9.6%	6.4%	13.5%
2026-10-15T05:33:16+00:00	4.2%	0.8%	12.8%	6.4%	13.5%
2026-10-15T06:18:26+00:00	4.2%	0.8%	12.8%	6.4%	13.5%
2026-10-15T07:03:34+00:00	4.2%	0.8%	12.8%	6.4%	13.5%
2026-10-15T07:49:17+00:00	3.5%	0.8%	12.8%	3.2%	14.8%
2026-10-15T08:35:49+00:00	3.5%	0.8%	12.8%	3.2%	14.8%
2026-10-15T09:21:43+00:00	3.5%	0.8%	12.8%	3.2%	14.8%
2026-10-15T10:07:29+00:00	3.5%	0.8%	12.8%	3.2%	14.8%
2026-10-15T10:52:49+00:00	3.5%	0.8%	12.8%	3.2%	14.8%
2026-10-15T11:39:11+00:00	3.5%	0.8%	6.3%	3.2%	14.8%
2026-10-15T13:55:48+00:00	8.6%	0.1%	6.3%	3.2%	15.4%
2026-10-15T14:48:23+00:00	8.6%	0.1%	6.3%	3.2%	15.4%
2026-10-15T17:05:20+00:00	8.6%	0.1%	11.2%	3.2%	15.4%
2026-10-15T17:50:38+00:00	8.6%	0.1%	11.2%	3.2%	15.4%
2026-10-15T18:35:58+00:00	8.6%	0.1%	11.2%	3.2%	15.4%
2026-10-15T19:21:06+00:00	8.6%	0.1%	11.2%	3.2%	15.4%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
ICON	15%	77.4°F	6.0°F	2026-10-15 00:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	11%	78.5°F	4.1°F	2026-10-15 06:00	Pending
AIFS Single	9%	76.7°F	5.0°F	2026-10-15 06:00	Pending
IFS HRES	3%	72.8°F	5.8°F	2026-10-15 00:00	Pending
NWS forecast	2%	73.0°F	5.2°F	2026-10-15 15:00	Pending
National Blend	2%	74.0°F	4.4°F	2026-10-15 06:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	<1%	72.7°F	3.6°F	2026-10-15 00:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 84°F · KCHS

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KCHS-20261020-TMAX-GE84
Opened Oct 13 · 08:02 UTC

Original listing: Charleston runs hot-for-here: 84°F+ · Tue Oct 20

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗